By Ted Belman
Recently, I interviewed in depth, a leading expert on the politics in the Middle East who is also a welcomed visitor to the PMO. What he had to say, fascinated me.
Gaza
Israel wants to destroy the tunnels but not Hamas. Hamas serves Israel’s interests which are to keep the Palestinians divided (That’s why she fights the reconciliation Agreement so much) and to maintain order in Gaza. With Hamas in power Israel has a party to hold responsible.
Israel does not cut off the flow of electricity to avoid the backlash from the world. Israel has a better card to play. The infrastructure in Gaza is falling apart. Electricity supply is intermittent. Sewage is a mess. But the lack of water is Gazan’s Achilles heel. Israel at the moment does not supply any water. Sooner or later Hamas is going to try to get the world to force Israel to supply their water needs. At that time Israel will insist on demilitarization in exchange. She will not allow Turkey to deliver water via tankers, he said. (I believe, easier said than done. The pressure on Israel to permit this humanitarian aid would be enormous.)
Iran is very upset with their proxy Hamas for starting this war. Iran has invested billions in underwriting the cost of the tunnels and the supply of rockets and rocket building materials. Its purpose in doing so was not to finance a mini war but to have the threat of an attack by Hamas hanging over Israel’s head to inhibit Israel from attacking Iran. Now that threat has been neutralized and Iran’s investment squandered. (I have long argued that Israel should take out her enemies, Hamas and Hezbollah, one by one at a time of her choosing rather than to have to defend herself on all borders at the same time.) Iran may not be so quick now to rebuild Hamas. Qatar is waiting to fill their shoes.
The “Arab Spring” has yet to visit Iran but it will, even though Iranians are not Arabs. They are Persians and constitute 51% of the population. Ethnic strife will surface aided and abetted by Saudi Arabia and Israel. The major minority groups consisting of Kurds (7%) Azeris (24%) and Gilaki and Mazandarani (8%) already have good relations with Israel. Their populations are growing while that of Iran is in serious decline.
There is a major difference between the EU and the US. The EU is very concerned about the growing Islamist threat to Europe. America, not so much. EU sees Hamas as connected to al Nusra who is fighting Assad in Syria. Both of them are backed by the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey. Many Europeans have joined al Nusra or other Islamist groups and on returning to Europe pose a growing threat. So they see Hamas as part of the Islamist threat. The E&U has now come out in favour of the demilitarization of Gaza but has not presented a plan for so doing.
The US is doing all it can to support the Muslim Brotherhood and its proxies. In this they join Qatar. They want to rescue Hamas and return to the ceasefire of 2012. The suspension of flights instigated by the US FAA is thought to be a political gambit initiated by Kerry to give him leverage to get Israel to agree the terms of Hama is now supported by the PA. The US also has been withholding from Israel, evidence of how extensive the tunnel infrastructure was. This is not what one would expect of friends. As for what is behind Obama’s embrace of the Muslim Brotherhood, he attributes it to the fact that Obama is a Muslim and a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. Perhaps Obama also sees himself as the Caliph of any future Caliphate.
US and Qatar have a symbiotic relationship. The US has two major military bases in Qatar and the Brookings Institute which has excessive influence in the US State Department also has a branch in Doha, Qatar. Qatar and the US worked hand in glove to destabilize Libya and kill Gadhafi who no longer posed a threat to the US. Qatar is a major financier of Islamist groups all over the ME, including Hamas, and in Libya. Recently the US just sold them arms for $11.4 billion. No doubt these arms are for distribution.
Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt and Israel are vehemently opposed to giving Hamas any victory. They want it demilitarized and neutralized. Saudi Arabia slammed the door on Kerry and Qatar. So did Egypt. Emotions are running high.
Meanwhile Assad has succeeded in making Syria a Shiite country albeit a smaller one. He destroyed the Palestinian refugee camps and caused many Sunnis including the Palestinian refugees, to flee the county to Lebanon and Jordan and Iraq. The demographic balance in Lebanon has therefore changed and Hezbollah is not as dominant as it was. Also Saudi Arabia has given the Lebanese army $3.5 billion dollars so that it could take on Hezbollah. That battle is yet to be fought, perhaps in conjunction with Israel who will join in the fray.
Syria and Iran have had a hand in building up ISIS. They want ISIS to be as ruthless as possible so that Syria is justified in fighting them. Iran wants a greater presence in Iraq and creating threats to the Shiite community is a good way to ensure this. Saudi Arabia on the other hand wants to see the breakup of Iraq so that Iraq can’t threaten them as it did under Hussein. So Saudi Arabia is also supporting ISIS. Israel for her part said she was ready to recognize Kurdish independence. In this regard both Saudi Arabia and Israel are defying America who is wedded to a unified Iraq.
Kerry is now in town to see if he can force a ceasefire. He will be as unsuccessful in this endeavor as he was in trying to force a peace agreement.
Judea and Samaria and the Peace Process.
Netanyahu is guided by two principles namely, 1) never make an offer and 2) don’t start a fire, a diplomatic one that is. The Right in Israel wants him to stop playing defense and go on the offensive. They want him to start annexing some or all of the land and to ramp up settlement construction.
Though there was considerable pressure on him to draw a map or abandon settlements he refrained. As for the second principle, he refuses to demand Israel’s rights to Judea and Samaria and prefers to stress our security needs there. The present Gaza conflict has greatly strengthened his hand in this. He refuses to extend Israeli law to Area C and even to just Gush Etzion, a settlement area near the green line and near Jerusalem. Doing such things would bring the wrath of the international community down on his head. He prefers to quietly go about building here and building there including in Jerusalem. Slow and steady wins the race. The Right is frustrated with his reluctance to be bold.
In a recent speech, he redefined what he sees as the two state solution. Put simply, for him, it does not result in a fully sovereign state for the Palestinians nor in Israel giving up control over Judea and Samaria and the Jordan Valley.
After all, the status quo isn’t bad. Israel controls all of Area C, the Jordan Valley and the eastern part of Jerusalem. She also controls the Holy Basin and the Temple Mount. What more could she want? I took issue with that stance. For one thing she could want to prevent encroachment into Area C spear headed by the EU. But she is not. She is allowing Arab construction to take place there financed by the EU. This is unacceptable. Secondly by not approving the Levy Report and making it part of Israel’s policy, he is not confronting the deligitimacy of Israel due to the “occupation” and the “illegal construction”. The Levy Report concluded that the Fourth Geneva Convention does not apply and that settlements are not illegal.
Recent polls show that 70% of Arab Jerusalemites want the area to stay in Israel. Look for Israel to start spending more money on the eastern part of Jerusalem in order to make her sovereignty there omnipresent and to ensure these Arabs will want to stay under Israeli sovereignty i.e, that the city will remain undivided.
Many Palestinians in Judea and Samaria are emigrating. (I believe about 20,000 per year.) He believes, as I and others, including Moshe Feiglin, do, that Israel should encourage this emigration by keeping Judea and Samaria difficult for them. Netanyahu, Bennett and Glick think otherwise. Meanwhile Israel is winning the demographic battle. Her fertility rate is higher now than that of the Arabs.
Trade is blossoming, unemployment is low, the deficit is manageable, the economy is growing and investors are beating a path to her door. What can be bad?
rsklaroff Said:
……
Ted Belman Said:
I believe that Turky collaborates with Barazanis Iraqi Kurds to weaken the PKK in syrian kurdistan. Barzanis groups is weak in syrian Kurdistan but he hopes to improve with Turkey’s help
It does not appear that any of the comments meaningfully challenged anything in your piece.
American Thinker published this article under the title “Bibi’s Game Plan”
You may want to read the comments there.
I believe that this is BB’s assessment of the situation and that this is the most that Israel can get. therefore he follows a silas marner MO which is to conserve what one is holding and protect it from loss as opposed to any rocking of the boat. I think he sees his mission as the protector of the status quo.
Perhaps BB believes that since he must give some of C it is best to give it in areas near to existing pal population centers in order to influence pal population growth not being scattered. It would be interesting to analyze where the growth has been allowed. I remember they had been talking of giving 500 acres of C near Jericho a while back. Certainly once one accepts they are giving up some of C than it makes sense to do it piecemeal near their existing population centers and for rounding out “borders”.
I agree that has been the MO. However, I think that has changed and that BB has accepted that the Pals will remain in Gaza and YS and that it will become a matter of haggling over land and security. The gaza war has helped the security narrative inc the BG FAA attack. I believe they all know where they are going but that a deal cannot be presented, as kerry obama would like credit for, because any announced deal will be rejected by the street. Therefore only a covert deal that the street can slowly get used to will happen. I think that as Israel remains in control of C now that he may be able to get some of C because the pals will only get any of C by Israel formally handing it over in pieces. I think BB also sees that this will stall any recognition of final recognized pal boundaries. Perhaps he will recognize them in A,B and Gaza to start or leave it to the end in the hope it wont happen.
I think he sees that the PA will be less likely to fire rockets from gaza, therefore giving up trying to squash the unity deal in return for quiet. The unity deal is what the west wants and they believe it will bring quiet and demilitarization of gaza.
Ted,
I agree, Iran’s insurance for a blowback against Israel should the US or Israel attack Iran. I have been saying this for over a year.
Isnt that what the GCC jihad mercenaries have been dong the last 2 years in Syria as i have been saying for 2 years now?
They have weakened Assad AND Hezbullah and now have even blocked the passage of troops from Iran to Syria with ISIS
I agree that Qatar is waiting to step in but I believe it stepped in for the GCC agenda to wean hamas off Iran since before Pillar of defence. If I am right we will see qatar have involvement in rebuilding gaza after the war. Rhetoric is not reality and often means the opposite when the agenda is unknown to the street. One reason, in my view, for qatar being in the limelight for the past couple of years, was to take the heat off Saudi who is always appearing in the news connected to terror(and rightly so)I believe that Qatar is acting loyally to its GCC partner Saudi, that the split is a front.
So far things have been playing out and predicted by the model I have been speculating on for the past 2+ years here. In fact the plan appears to be developing on schedule. Perhaps the PMO doesn’t share ALL the info and reasons behind BB’s actions, especially the GCC relations which have bee overtly referred to by BB and lieberman and which are affirmed by the stance of Sisi(the saudi proxy) and the arab controlled media, which is much lighter than prior wars. It is my view that this regional plan, basically including the arab league peace plan is what is unfolding in Gaza. The PA will slowly take over Gaza, first with the borders as part of the cease-fire deal, this will enable hamas to claim it broke the blockade. The demilitarization will be done as part of applying the existing agreements with the PA that wold have been in force after the disengagement and before hamas. As BB knows the general outcome he is loath to risk more lives for the same outcome, however hamas has a need to demonstrate a victory before laying down the heavy weapons and melding into the PLO. that victory claim will likely be “we broke the blockade” of course there was no blockade before Hamas took over the borders.
dont forget the sunni Baluchis. I have been saying for over a year that the end of the arab spring begins with the internal destabilization of Iran utilizing these same minorities and their external counterparts.
dont agree with this statement, ISIS is sunni through and through and accomplishes ALL the goals desired by the GCC and west that could not be accomplished legally.
@ Ted Belman:
{The Kurds could still favorably affect events in Iraq, as well.}
Ted, did I miss anything crucial?
@ rsklaroff:
Thanks for your analysis. I too have been working with Sherkoh for 6 years and am so pleased that Kurdistan will declare thir independence soom. Then look for ways to absorb the area in Syria that the Kurds control, Then Turkey and then Iran.
PART IV:
I do not apologize for the length of these elucidations because I am eager to assess reactions thereto; candidly my hope is that a unified narrative can be generated, recalling Walt Kelly’s “Pogo” classic-quote that was composed during the Vietnam War era [“We have met the enemy and he is us.” http://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/160797.Walt_Kelly ]. We must do this by galvanizing support for whatever BB does, at least until 1/21/2017 and, in the meantime, take-note of emergence of the good-guys [such as Texas Senator Ted Cruz]. Indeed, for further inspiration, a number of Pogo-inspired quotes are applicable.
Ted Belman’s elucidation of what emerged covertly from the Prime Minister’s Office allows for an appreciation of the mega-forces at-play within definably-concentric spheres, taking into account the Sunni-Sh’ite tug-of-war. BB need not act forthrightly when a “let’s you and him fight” scenario arises [such as when no major intervention was needed in the ‘80’s during the Iran/Iraq War, notwithstanding “Iran-Contra”].
Perhaps the key lemma that many have feared for a half-decade is BHO’s consistently-manifest affinity for the Muslim Brotherhood. We must proclaim this postulate aggressively, if for no other reason than to help American opinion evolve to a point whereby it will WANT to “invite” more “adults” to “help” BHO conduct foreign policy; it is difficult to await a post-BHO administration, for events are transpiring too quickly [and, absent forthright military initiatives, could establish a degree of permanence]. Certainly, dissemination of this epochal-claim would both snap thinking-people to “attention” and serve to empower BB to do what must be done in his “neighborhood.”
With minor alterations [such as BHO’s plan to supplant Moon as UN-SG, perhaps as a stepping-stone to becoming worldwide Caliph], most of the issues raised in this piece can be problem-solved while maintaining awareness of the aforementioned underlying-forces. I am not evading specifics when arriving @ this resting-place, for our “messaging” must accommodate and praise the work of DD [and the other IDF voices “heard” yesterday, for example] while aggressively endorsing anything/everything BB expresses [in word/deed].
PART III:
With these observations understood [and a history of BB having resisted being “deposed” by BHO as had been accomplished by Clinton], it is easier to appreciate the aggregate message received yesterday, as conveyed by the aforementioned pundit-troika. In short, BB is doing what DD wants, albeit deftly; there is INCREASINGLY a desire to excavate Gaza [perhaps the rubble of Samson’s demolished temple will be unearthed?], and I would not be surprised if—at the end of this process that would NOT necessitate high-risk street-to-street conflict—Israel would not necessarily withdraw to the prior cease-fire lines, thereby denying Hamas access to the open-fields from which rockets were fired.
If, indeed, they are eliminating both rockets and their factories, Hamas will have been so denervated so as to promote internal strife [among all the myriad Islamists infesting the Strip]; BB need not promote the PA [noting that it’s been unmasked to be a tie-and-jacket front for Hamas], perhaps allowing for more moderate governance to emerge [not subject as much to being degraded by BB and, thus, projecting a certain attraction to those who would want to divert armaments to building Gaza’s economy].
In short, BB is channeling Clint Eastwood [“A Man’s Got to Know his Limitations” – Magnum Force – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_VrFV5r8cs0%5D while, in this case, buying sufficient time to uproot Hamas methodically and [relatively] safely. He knows that world-opinion is eager to be swayed, such as when a school is bombed [even after explicit warnings, even after UNRWA schools have admittedly held rockets, and even after ~100 prior Hamas misfirings have knowingly landed in Gaza]. His focus is less upon whether Hamas will be able to claim some sort of “victory” [for they’ll cite anything as fodder for dissemination to the minions, notwithstanding recognized facts]; his laser-like intent is trained upon achieving a key-goal, de facto [albeit not de jure] demilitarization of Gaza.
The importance of this goal is illustrated by “sudden” demonstrations in Judea/Samaria; BB must neutralize the potency of as many domestic “fronts” as possible before tackling Iran.
This is why, also, he stuck-it-to-BHO when he recognized Kurdistan. I have been “lobbying” for this outcome during the past six years, “ghost”-writing pieces with Dr. Sherkoh Abbas [President of the Kurdistan National Assembly]; this theme has been inherent in earlier op-eds [ http://www.kurdnas.com/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=447:the-road-to-iran-runs-through-kurdistan-and-starts-in-syria&catid=35:opinion&Itemid=55 ], and last year’s updated entreaty [ http://www.kurdnas.com/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=587:the-kurds-can-lead-a-reborn-syria-at-peace-with-all-of-her-neighbors-&catid=35:opinion&Itemid=55 ], and the most-recent essay [ http://www.jewishpolicycenter.org/5213/kurdistan-us-recognition ].
PART II:
It is desirable to provide the precise database cited earlier, regarding the smorgasbord of updates provided yesterday by quality organizations/individuals:
EMET [Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror, Former Israeli National Security Advisor], Israeli-American Council [Minister Yuval Steinitz, Israeli Minister of Strategic and Intelligence Affairs] and ZOA [Danny Danon, Member of Knesset, Chair, Central Committee of Likud
Israel’s Former Deputy Minister of Defense].
I harbor an inherent-bias, namely, that I harbor fealty towards Mort Klein’s ZOA. {I admit to having to work-through my personal problem with its local entity having countenanced Dershowitz speaking @ Penn in ’08—even as I’m BFF with its superbly committed and energetic Executive Director—because he is a scourge [adamantly providing “cover” to support the Dems by falsely claiming Middle East policy shouldn’t be politicized] and an apologist for BHO [due to “social issues” that he prioritizes more than Israeli security, as he admitted @ Penn a few months ago]. Mort praised his recent column, in which he appeared to discount his prior support for a “two-state solution,” but this guy is so wily that EVERYTHING he writes and says must be viewed skeptically. For details of my experience, note comment #5 below the index-essay: https://www.israpundit.org/archives/63598172/comment-page-1#comment-63356000133257.}
Therefore, it is desirable to note precisely what Danny Danon said @ the onset; he was not in agreement with BB’s potential acquiescence to a prolonged cease-fire. One could argue that Israel acquired a PR-advantage when Hamas refused it, but he would argue that one could not know ahead-of-time that this would transpire. Thus, it seems that BB’s reticence to sign-on with engrained Likud-philosophy [as articulated by Danon and promoted by Klein] indeed requires further probing.
My working-hypothesis is that BB [who graduated from my high school, Cheltenham, two years before I did] is subject to pressures generated by BHO, and that he has to maneuver as did Odysseus when confronted with Scylla and Charybdis [although he may actually be negotiating through more than two black-holds, simultaneously]. Furthermore, I once learned that Americans would be well-advised to appreciate that EVERYTHING an Israeli politician is doing [even the most “seemingly-external” action] is actually designed to affect internal Israeli politics.
Therefore, BB’s recent restatement of how he views a demilitarized endpoint encompassing Judea/Samaria serves as a useful starting-point for discussion, for it is NOT inconsistent with basic Likud-philosophy and, of course, it serves to motivate BHO to do things such as instigate the brief FAA-ban [which now hovers overhead—no pun intended—anytime BHO wants to push a BDS-type button to convey displeasure]. I have adored DD ever since he stood alongside Rick Perry @ the UN in September of ’07, and I have appreciated the efforts of MK-Feiglin ever since he spoke @ Penn, years ago; yet, they must be viewed as picking prominent moments to convey their messages starkly, affording them the opportunity to help voters recall these actions @ the most propitious future-time. In the process, I do NOT question DD’s motives [for reasons aforementioned], but I suggest his statement [and BB’s reaction thereto] must be viewed in a larger context. [For example, BB’s having jettisoned a “hard-right” person (with whom many people, such as myself, would reflexly agree) may have been done for BHO’s consumption, providing a weekend respite from the specter of another Kerry-visit.]
Thus, it’s plausible to conclude that whatever BB did/didn’t do was ascribable to the tight-leash imposed by BHO who could, without Congressional approval, delimit the necessary support for the Iron Dome [although I feel reliance on this level of defense is overly-touted and, indeed, relegates Israel from adopting a psychological mindset that would promote military prophylaxis, i.e., going on the offensive]. Such a rationalization could be invoked as a “waste-basket” to rationalize anything BB might erroneously say/do, but its import is undeniable.
Therefore, pending critique from others, my expanded working-hypothesis is that the lack of initiative allegedly exhibited by BB [regarding pre-war tunnel-probes, regarding being “open” to a Hudna, etc.]. Invoking the mythological metaphor cited supra, it is simply impossible for BB [“Odysseus”] to avoid traversing [“sailing through”] dangerous decision-making [“the strait of Messina”]. If anyone can detect more global forces to be afoot, then this consideration should be weighed in conjunction with points made in this essay.
PART – I
This is, perhaps, the most fascinating essay available on the ‘net regarding the maneuverings in the Middle East and, thus, its existence will be disseminated ASAP to as many people as possible [in my case, ~500 via Facebook and ~400 via “Blast” e-mail].
I listened on Thursday to three audio-updates from Israel sponsored by quality organizations; each was focused on the current situation in Gaza, and each addressed the question that I had submitted to one of them, ahead-of-time, querying why detection of tunnel-openings in Israel hadn’t previously been pursued via available hi-tech equipment. Basically, the experts punted, suggesting the sophistication and number of tunnels hadn’t previously been appreciated.
I’m an “armchair” observer, and it’s difficult to appreciate why numerous reports of the risk of Israeli abductions [as hostages] using known-tunnels hadn’t prompted SOMEONE in authority to have connected-the-dots and acted accordingly, prophylactically.
Indeed, recalling the flick [“The Great Escape”] starring [inter alia] the late-great James Garner [and Steve McQueen, Richard Attenborough, James Coburn, Charles Bronson, Donald Pleasence, David McCallum], one wonders how aerial-surveillance didn’t allow for Israel to detect how/where the dirt had been disseminated. [Recall how it was dropped by ambulatory prisoners from specially-rigged pants-legs.] Tracing backward to the site from which this excess-soil had first been detected, allows for noting where to search for the origins of the tunnels [as is presumably occurring], but it also could reflect an arc of ISRAELI sites from which the likely adit would lead.
I raise this issue, first, to suggest that those in-the-know may wish to explore the circumstances under which someone in Shin-Bet may have dropped-the-ball. This is of-interest because initial reports of the Gaza operation’s goals, emerging a fortnight ago, were focused on the tunnels.
Although perhaps tangential to the mega-forces probed in this piece, this little-clue may factor-in when others critique the “macro” by citing a “micro” such as this Achilles’ Heel of the vaunted Israeli security apparatus. Perhaps nothing could have been done, but perhaps someone could have been routinely bull-dozing [and TNT’ing] a buffer-zone around the Strip [after having probing the region via sophisticated tech].
When I read that one tunnel was underneath a school, it’s clear that my presumed remedy wouldn’t have sufficed globally, but then this raises the question as to whether the technology employed in tunnel-construction was so sophisticated that the Iranian-advisers could guide their pathways with such precision.
Jus’ wundrin’….