Change in Jordan – Is Israel prepared?

By MUDAR ZAHRAN, JPOST

Israel and pro-Israel forces across the world must think up ways to mitigate the damage should the Hashemite regime fall. PHOTO: REUTERS The Hashemite regime in Jordan has kept Israel’s eastern border secure for over four decades, and has proven itself a comfortable partner with Israel on the Palestinian issue.

Nonetheless, the Hashemite regime is not necessarily immune to the Arab Spring. If it were to be deposed, who might succeed the regime, and can Israel be prepared for the outcome? The regime in Jordan is not perfect. It has refused to integrate its Palestinian majority, telling them they are merely refugees who should return to Palestine, and it is also is an autocratic regime that strips the majority of its citizens of their civil rights.

Nevertheless, Jordan has proven one virtue: It has kept Israel’s longest borders safe and virtually worry-free for over four decades. Furthermore, it has been integrating a high-level cooperation on intelligence, counter-terrorism efforts and crime prevention with both the US and Israel.

Therefore, it is safe to say that the best arrangement Israel can ever possibly find along its borders is the current one, where the Hashemite family rules Jordan.

Nonetheless, the Arab Spring has proven that the strongest of dictators can fall to peaceful protests, and Jordan may not necessarily by an exception.

While the protests in Jordan have been quieter than those in other Arab countries, nonetheless they are regular and the protesters are constantly upping the ante, to the point where there have been open calls for toppling the king.

Should the king of Jordan be toppled, Israel will face limited options as to his successor. The Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan is dominated by Beduin Jordanians, not Palestinians, and yes, the Palestinian voting record in parliamentary elections shows they have been voting Brotherhood members out of office, to the point of electing none of them in 2010. Nevertheless, the Muslim Brotherhood is the most organized, well-financed and regionally-connected political organization in Jordan.

Common sense, then, indicates they will dominate the elections or at least have the strongest part in the new Jordanian government, just as was the case in Egypt, Tunisia and possibly soon Libya.

The Obama administration’s attitude toward the Brotherhood isn’t helpful, either. In fact, cables exposed by WikiLeaks show the US Embassy in Amman has been in touch with the Muslim Brotherhood.

BUT THERE is another strong contender: the PLO. The PLO is well integrated in Jordan; and is more accepted than the Muslim Brotherhood, especially are refugee camps. The PLO has the resources to dominate the public vote of a future democratic Jordan, but will that be good for Israel? The organization, which already dominated the Palestinian Authority, has been a thorn in Israel’s side for almost two decades now, dragging it into painful negotiations that usually end up with Israel being asked to give more land for nothing in return.

Should the PLO take control of Jordan it will be in a much stronger position to hurt Israel politically and militarily. It is true that the PA under chairman Mahmoud Abbas has been able to bring terrorism under control in its territories, but on the political level Abbas and the PA have been harassing Israel ceaselessly.

Examples include Abbas’s unilateral bid for UN Security Council recognition of the Palestinian Authority as a sovereign state, a breach of the Oslo peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians.

Another scenario is that the Beduin take control of the country. This is a possibility today as the anti-regime/proreform protests have been driven by them, and they make up the regime’s army and security agencies, which protect the king.

The Beduin have a history of tribal unrest and in-fighting, and furthermore they have been heavily radicalized. For example terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was a Jordanian Beduin. Such a situation would create havoc and tribal unrest in Jordan, and the Beduin are likely to be hostile to both the Palestinians in Jordan and to Israel.

THERE IS, though, a more positive opposition to the king. There are moderate opposition movements in Jordan, mostly dominated by Palestinians as well as moderate “native” Jordanians, that are quite active in the peaceful protests and political arena.

In fact, the major Jordanian opposition movement, the March 24 movement, and the Tafilah Movement (in the south) are at disagreement with the Muslim Brotherhood.

However, the secular movements in Jordan lack funding and receive little media coverage, as major Arab media such as Al Jazeera seem to focus only on the Islamist opposition. Therefore, they are less likely to dominate any future democratic elections in Jordan if the king falls.

So what is to be done? Should the world simply sit back and wait to see if a situation identical to Egypt or Tunisia unfolds in Jordan? Firstly, it would be very wise of Israel not to meddle in the current Jordanian affair, as it might end up being blamed by Arabs, Jordanian and Palestinians alike over whatever the outcome might be.

Israel should consider a careful “justin- case” Plan B for Jordan that will secure the arrival of non-hostile forces to rule Jordan in case the king falls. Such a Plan B must be thought of like an extra gas tank – you only use when you run out of gas.

Israel and pro-Israel forces across the world must think up ways to mitigate the damage should the Hashemite regime fall, and possibly find workable back-up plans to support the secular Palestinians’ and moderate Jordanians’ bid for power.

Such a plan should be carefully examined and prepared, then quietly executed if a need for it arises, and never before that.

The writer is a Palestinian-Jordanian writer who resides in the UK.

October 22, 2012 | 11 Comments »

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11 Comments / 11 Comments

  1. @ dweller:

    But then, nothing ELSE about 1948 is as it was then either. . . .

    Except the Muslim hatred for the Jew that is! And that’s the case whether or not Pallys get their state in Jordan or not. I say the River-to-the-Sea with or without the Pallys. You didn’t read my post. Only that once they have their state they will no longer have any claim to political rights in Greater Israel and if they misbehave, we’ll have an address to send them – two in fact, their is always Hamastan as well. Whether or not we regain the sympathy of the goyim is really inconsequential. Seems we’re on the same page.

  2. @ Yidvocate:

    “The IDF of 2012 is not the IDF of 1948.”

    Granted.

    But then, nothing ELSE about 1948 is as it was then either. . . .

    “What you are insinuating is that the present status quo is better than having a sovereign greater Israel sans the Pallys because that will mean a hostile Palestinian state of Jordan.”

    No, Yidvocate.

    I see no reason not to extend Israeli sovereignty from River to Sea, irrespective of whether the Palis stay or go.

    I’m just not very comfortable with the notion of trading the amorphous hope (not the guarantee) of the world’s recognition

    — in return for the absolute certainty of yet another, hostile, frontline, Arab-Muslim state

    and this particular one wholly composed of an anti-nation, which derives its only group identity — its entire purpose, direction, life’s meaning & motive energy — from the fixed, compulsive, consummately pathological craving to destroy an existing nation.

    The only thing I am ‘insinuating’

    — is what I had said [above] keeps INSINUATING itself into my mind: that little matter of the Law of Unintended Consequences:

    None of us can see around corners

    — in time OR in space.

    And it occurs to me that we might GET what we want — but not like what we got.

  3. @ dweller:

    The IDF of 2012 is not the IDF of 1948.

    What you are insinuating is that the present status quo is better than having a sovereign greater Israel sans the Pallys because that will mean a hostile Palestinian state of Jordan.

    Israel has done quit well with the hostile state of Syria and Lebanon with which it is officially at war. So why do you think the hostile Palestinian state of Jordan would be a problem and such a scenario worse than the status quo ?

  4. @ Yidvocate:

    “[With Pali control in Jordan] the [global] mindset will change back to pre-1967…”

    Strictly an assumption, Yidvocate.

    “World perception will once again revert to recognizing Israel as the victim and underdog surrounded by millions of enemy Arabs.”

    fun dayn moyl in gots oyern. . . .

    From your lips to God’s ears.

    In any case, I wonder about the tradeoff between acquiring the world’s recognition

    — in return for putting the weapon of state sovereignty into the hands of the pathological Palis.

    Something about the Law of Unintended Consequences keeps insinuating itself into my thoughts.

    Just remember:
    The War of Independence was fought with the world’s recognition

    and was attended by:
    • the loss of one in every 100 Jews in the Yishuv at the time, many of them tortured to death

    • as well as another 5 times that number, seriously wounded;

    • military expenses of half-a-billion dollars (for a postage-stamp-sized country, a king’s ransom, in 1940’s currency);

    • vital national infrastructure crippled & disabled: roads & bridges bombed out and impassable, water systems shattered, the countryside horribly ravaged & grotesquely disfigured — many of its most productive fields gutted and mined; its citrus groves, for decades the basis of the Yishuv’s economy, largely destroyed; to say nothing of

    • the forced sacrifice of a new country’s scarce communal resources.

    Again, this was WITH the world’s recognition & sympathy. . . .

    Take good care what you pray for, Yiddele

    — you might get it.

  5. @ the phoenix:

    Presently it’s world opinion (without the 50 cents) that presents a serious existential threat to Israel and thwarts it’s initiatives towards self-preservation. It is historic fact that prior to 1967 Israel was for the most part viewed favorably as the struggling underdog before the invented Pally’s usurped such position.

    That said, I agree that world pity and sympathy is not ideal nor is fear the optimal sentiment to ensure Israeli security.

    A true Torah-Jewish leader would in fact be the best of all worlds and would ensure Israeli security not through fear, nor through pity and sympathy but rather through respect.

  6. @ Yidvocate:

    World perception will once again revert to recognizing Israel as the victim and underdog surrounded by millions of enemy Arabs.

    with due respect, world opinion and 50 cents will still not buy a cup of coffee.
    in this respect, i wholeheartedly agree with yamit, inasmuch as ‘the world needs to FEAR the jew’ and not have a pity and view israel and the jews as underdogs…
    hell no!
    for a nuclear powered nation to grovel to the criminal hypocrite e.u. AND u.s. is just mind boggling…

  7. to Yidvocate:

    I agree that this should lead to Israel finally annexing J&S.

    However, until Israel has a proud Jewish leader, of which there is only one even attempting to lead the country, Israel will still be viewed negatively by “the world”.

    But it will be a big improvement nonetheless.

  8. @ dweller:
    No, I have no illusion. The Pallys will still be the Pallys, in truth indistinguishable from the larger Muslim Middle East and it’s iridescent hatred of the Jew and the Jewish state. The difference will be that Israel will become whole with defensible borders and can respond appropriately to acts of war perpetrated by the sovereign “Palestinian” state of Jordan. the mindset will change back to pre-1967 and the Pallys will no long be perceived as the victim and underdog. World perception will once again revert to recognizing Israel as the victim and underdog surrounded by millions of enemy Arabs.

  9. @ Yidvocate:

    “The fall of the Hashemite regime can only herald in the long awaited ‘Palestinian State,’ followed hard on by the Israeli long neglected annexation of Judea and Samaria and the final solution of the Pally-Problem.”

    Whereupon the Paly terror clubs will simply learn an entirely new modus operandi (oh, joy!)

    — they’ll take up, what — Bocci Ball?

    Needlepoint?

    Basket weaving?

    Horseshoes?

    Jai alai?

  10. Israel and pro-Israel forces across the world must think up ways to mitigate the damage should the Hashemite regime fall

    The damage?

    The fall of the Hashemite regime can only herald in the long awaited “Palestinian State”, followed hard on by the Israeli long neglected annexation of Judea and Samaria and the final solution of the Pally-Problem.