Corrected Gravis poll has Trump well out in front of Clinton at national level

By Sierri Rayne. AMERICAN THINKER

After an onslaught of highly liberal biased polls against Donald Trump during the past week, it was refreshing to see an only modestly biased poll – in relative terms – released on Saturday by Gravis.

In its biased form, the poll shows Trump only 2% behind Hillary Clinton in the head-to-head matchup, far below the ridiculously large Clinton leads of up to 12% that Bloomberg and other leftist media outlets have been oozing of late.

But once we correct for biases in this Gravis poll, Trump is undoubtedly now well out in front of Clinton.

In the poll’s demographics, 40% of respondents said they were Democrats compared to just 33% who were Republicans. This 7% Democrat advantage is almost assuredly about 6% above where it should be – meaning Clinton’s narrow 2% lead should likely be upward of at least a 4% deficit behind Trump.

Further evidence of liberal bias in the poll comes from questions about Tea Party support, abortion, religious affiliation, and education.

Just 11% of those surveyed said they were members of the Tea Party. This value should be about 17%, suggesting – as with the party affiliation – about a 6% liberal bias.

The poll also shows a 17% advantage to pro-choice over pro-life, well above the known 6% spread in favor of pro-choice. This signifies a major liberal bias in the demographics, as the pro-choice side has not had an advantage larger than 10% since the 1990s.

When it comes to religious affiliation, the poll oversampled Muslims (2% versus 1%) and Catholics (25% versus less than 21%) and looks to have massively undersampled Evangelicals (10% versus 25%), resulting in more liberal bias. Evangelicals will vote dominantly for Trump, whereas Muslims and many Catholics are likely to lean toward Clinton.

A full 50% of the poll’s respondents had a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared to 34% in reality, introducing more liberal bias.

Based on the full range of liberal biases present, a reasonable estimate of Trump’s actual lead over Clinton is in the range of at least 5% once the polling data is corrected.

After an onslaught of highly liberal biased polls against Donald Trump during the past week, it was refreshing to see an only modestly biased poll – in relative terms – released on Saturday by Gravis.

In its biased form, the poll shows Trump only 2% behind Hillary Clinton in the head-to-head matchup, far below the ridiculously large Clinton leads of up to 12% that Bloomberg and other leftist media outlets have been oozing of late.

But once we correct for biases in this Gravis poll, Trump is undoubtedly now well out in front of Clinton.

In the poll’s demographics, 40% of respondents said they were Democrats compared to just 33% who were Republicans. This 7% Democrat advantage is almost assuredly about 6% above where it should be – meaning Clinton’s narrow 2% lead should likely be upward of at least a 4% deficit behind Trump.

Further evidence of liberal bias in the poll comes from questions about Tea Party support, abortion, religious affiliation, and education.

Just 11% of those surveyed said they were members of the Tea Party. This value should be about 17%, suggesting – as with the party affiliation – about a 6% liberal bias.

The poll also shows a 17% advantage to pro-choice over pro-life, well above the known 6% spread in favor of pro-choice. This signifies a major liberal bias in the demographics, as the pro-choice side has not had an advantage larger than 10% since the 1990s.

When it comes to religious affiliation, the poll oversampled Muslims (2% versus 1%) and Catholics (25% versus less than 21%) and looks to have massively undersampled Evangelicals (10% versus 25%), resulting in more liberal bias. Evangelicals will vote dominantly for Trump, whereas Muslims and many Catholics are likely to lean toward Clinton.

A full 50% of the poll’s respondents had a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared to 34% in reality, introducing more liberal bias.

Based on the full range of liberal biases present, a reasonable estimate of Trump’s actual lead over Clinton is in the range of at least 5% once the polling data is corrected.

June 20, 2016 | 15 Comments »
Subscribe to Israpundit Daily Digest

Leave a Reply

15 Comments / 15 Comments

  4. @ yamit82:

    Notice how when some one is really a rebel, the effort that goes into bring the rebel in line

    I should say a person who thinks differently. Hard to explain.

  5. @ Bear Klein:

    No they don’t but they do on occasion. I hope they are wrong about Brexit because I want to see Europe go down the tubes big time. Re: Trump? He has beaten the book so far I wouldn’t bet against him yet.

  11. Trump himself was worried by the direction of the polls and how his campaign has been floundering since wrapping up the delegates needed for the nomination.

    Trump Was Loyal To Corey Lewandowski — Until He Fell Behind Clinton

    Trump, who once claimed that he personally made polls “a very important thing,” can’t be unaware that the polls have now turned against him. Whatever Trump was doing in the primary has not been working in the general election. The decline became too obvious to ignore, and at the same moment, Trump decided Lewandowski had to go.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-was-loyal-to-corey-lewandowski-until-he-fell-behind-clinton/

  12. Americans’ Preference for Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton to Handle Each of Top Five Election Issues
    Regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump would better handle each of the following issues.
    High importance to vote^ Prefer Trump on issue Prefer Clinton on issue Advantage
    % % %
    The economy 92 53 43 Trump +10
    Employment and jobs 89 52 45 Trump +7
    Terrorism and national security 87 50 46 Trump +4
    Education 86 35 61 Clinton +26
    Healthcare and the Affordable Care Act 83 40 56 Clinton +16
    ^ Percentage saying the candidates’ positions on the issue will be extremely/very important issue to influencing their vote for president
    Gallup, May 18-22, 2016

    At the same time, the Democratic front-runner boasts commanding leads over the presumptive Republican nominee in public perceptions of who can best handle education and healthcare, with 61% and 56%, respectively, choosing Clinton over Trump on these issues. Both issues rank among the top five Americans say will influence their vote for president.

    These findings come from a May 18-22 Gallup poll in which U.S. adults were first asked to rate how important each of 17 prominent national issues will be to their vote for president this year, and then to say whether Clinton or Trump would best handle each issue. As Gallup reported previously, most of the issues Americans rate as highly important are economic and national defense-related. By contrast, most of the bottom eight involve social policy, trade and the environment. (See the full list in the table at the end of the story.)

    Overall, Trump leads Clinton in public perceptions of who would better handle eight of the 17 issues. Beyond his modest leads on the economy (+10) and jobs (+7), and slight edge on terrorism (+4), he leads on several lower-ranked concerns: the federal budget deficit (+18), the size and efficiency of the federal government (+14), regulation of banks and Wall Street (+11), taxes (+8) and gun policy (+5).
    Donald Trump Issue Advantages
    Based on U.S. adults
    High importance to vote^ Prefer Trump on issue Prefer Clinton on issue Advantage
    % % %
    The economy 92 53 43 Trump +10
    Employment and jobs 89 52 45 Trump +7
    Terrorism and national security 87 50 46 Trump +4
    The federal budget deficit 78 57 39 Trump +18
    Taxes 71 52 44 Trump +8
    The size and efficiency of the federal government 64 55 41 Trump +14
    Gun policy 63 50 45 Trump +5
    Government regulation of Wall Street and banks 59 53 42 Trump +11
    ^ Percentage saying the candidates’ positions on the issue will be extremely/very important issue to influencing their vote for president
    Gallup, May 18-22, 2016

    Meanwhile, Clinton has advantages on eight other issues. However, aside from education (+26) and healthcare (+16) these tend to be lower-ranking concerns: climate change (+38), the treatment of minority groups in the U.S. (+38), social issues such as gay marriage and abortion (+33), foreign affairs (+21), income and wealth distribution (+8), and immigration (+8).
    Hillary Clinton Issue Advantages
    Based on U.S. adults
    High importance to vote^ Prefer Clinton on issue Prefer Trump on issue Advantage
    % % %
    Education 86 61 35 Clinton +26
    Healthcare and the Affordable Care Act 83 56 40 Clinton +16
    Foreign affairs 74 59 38 Clinton +21
    Immigration 69 52 44 Clinton +8
    The treatment of minority groups in this country 66 67 29 Clinton +38
    The distribution of income and wealth in the U.S. 65 51 43 Clinton +8
    Social issues such as gay marriage and abortion 48 64 31 Clinton +33
    Climate change 47 66 28 Clinton +38

    ^ Percentage saying the candidates’ positions on the issue will be extremely/very important issue to

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/192104/trump-leads-clinton-top-ranking-economic-issues.aspx?g_source=Election%202016&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

  13. According to Gallup

    Last year, in addition to the 29% of Americans who identified as Democrats, another 16% said they were independents but leaned toward the Democratic Party, for a combined total of 45% Democrats and Democratic leaners among the U.S. population.

    Likewise, 26% of Americans identified as Republicans and an additional 16% identified as independents but leaned toward the Republican Party, for a combined total of 42% Republicans and Republican leaners

    .

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/188096/democratic-republican-identification-near-historical-lows.aspx

  14. RCP Poll average is six for Clinton. Rasmussen GOP pollster who skews slightly higher GOP voters in his polling than some of the others is still close with five points. The RCP lists many polls and they are not assembly of left wing pollsters.

    Not liking poll results is a common intellectual fault among partisans. The article does not show data to prove that the assumptions were wrong. I am disputing that they may or not be inaccurate.

    RCP Average 6/2 – 6/19 — — 45.4 39.4 Clinton +6.0
    Monmouth 6/15 – 6/19 721 LV 3.7 49 41 Clinton +8
    Gravis 6/16 – 6/16 2197 RV 2.1 51 49 Clinton +2
    Rasmussen Reports 6/14 – 6/15 1000 LV 3.0 44 39 Clinton +5
    Reuters/Ipsos 6/11 – 6/15 1323 RV 2.8 41 32 Clinton +9
    Bloomberg* 6/10 – 6/13 750 LV 3.6 49 37 Clinton +12
    CBS News 6/9 – 6/13 1048 RV 4.0 43 37 Clinton +6
    FOX News 6/5 – 6/8 1004 RV 3.0 42 39 Clinton +3
    Economist/YouGov 6/2 – 6/5 1636 RV 3.6 44 41 Clinton +3

  15. this article shows us the methods that bought polls use to give the results they want…. and makes it very clear that just quoting poll results is meaningless. One thing is certain, they know how to get what they want out of the figures… so the polls are as reliable as the “sleazy and dishonest” press.