Israel is one of eight great powers of 2017

By WALTER RUSSELL MEAD and SEAN KEELEY, AMERICAN INTEREST

[…]

8. Israel

 Israel joins list, published by  for the first time.

* Others on list are U.S., China, Japan, Russia, Germany, India, Iran
affairs,” magazine says
* Magazine cites Israeli technology prowess, natural gas discoveries and “diplomatic ingenuity” for growing clout

This year there’s a new name on our list of the Eight Greats: Israel. A small country in a chaotic part of the world, Israel is a rising power with a growing impact on world affairs. Although 2016 saw the passage of yet another condemnation of Israel at the United Nations, this time in the Security Council thanks to an American decision to abstain rather than veto, overall the Jewish state continues to develop diplomatic, economic and military power and to insert itself into the heart of regional politics.

Three factors are powering Israel’s rise: economic developments, the regional crisis, and diplomatic ingenuity. Looking closely at these tells us something about how power works in the contemporary world.

The economic developments behind Israel’s new stature are partly the result of luck and location, and partly the result of smart choices. As to the luck and location factor, large, off-shore discoveries of natural gas and oil are turning Israel into an energy exporter. Energy self-sufficiency is a boost to Israel’s economy; energy exports boost Israel’s foreign policy clout. In 2016 Erdogan’s Turkey turned on most of its NATO and Western allies; ties with Israel strengthened. Turkey’s Islamist ruler wants gas, and he wants to limit Turkey’s dependence on Russia. Israel is part of the answer.

But beyond luck, Israel’s newfound clout on the world stage comes from the rise of industrial sectors and technologies that good Israeli schools, smart Israeli policies and talented Israeli thinkers and entrepreneurs have built up over many years. In particular, Israel’s decision to support the rise of a domestic cybersecurity and infotech economy has put Israel at the center of the ongoing revolution in military power based on the importance of information control and management to 21st century states. It is not just that private investors all over the world look to invest in Israel’s tech startups; access to Israeli technology (like the technology behind the Iron Dome missile system) matters to more and more countries. It’s not just America; India, China and Russia all want a piece of Israeli tech wizardry.

Other, less glamorous Israeli industries, like the irrigation, desalinization and dry land farming tech that water poor Israel has developed over the decades play their part. Israel’s diplomatic outreach to Africa and its deepening (and increasingly public) relationship with India benefit from Israel’s ability to deliver what people in other countries and governments want.

The second factor in Israel’s appearing on our list is the change in the Middle Eastern balance of power that has transformed Israel from a pariah state to a kingmaker. On the one hand, Syria, one of Israel’s most vociferous enemies and biggest security threats in the old days, has now been broken on the wheel. What has happened in Syria is a terrible human tragedy; but in the cold light of realpolitik the break up of Syria further entrenches Israel’s military supremacy in its immediate neighborhood. Egypt hates Hamas, ISIS and Islamic Jihad as much as Israel does; never has Egyptian-Israeli security cooperation been as close as it is today. Even more consequentially, the rise of Iran and its aspirations to regional hegemony on the one hand and the apparent support for its dreams from the Obama administration made Israel critical to the survival of the Sunni Arabs, including the Gulf states, who loathe Iran and fear a Shia victory in the religious conflict now raging across the Middle East. The Arab Establishment today has two frightening enemies: radical jihadi groups like ISIS on one side, and Iran on the other. Israel has a mix of intelligence and military capabilities that can help keep the regional balance stable; privately and even not so privately many prominent Arab officials today will say that Israeli support is necessary for the survival of Arab independence.

Finally, Israel has managed, uncharacteristically, to advance its global political agenda through effective and even subtle diplomacy. Just as Israel was able to strengthen its relationship with Turkey even as Turkish-U.S. and Turkish EU relations grew distant, Israel has been able to build a realistic and fruitful relationship with Russia despite Russia’s standoff with the west over Ukraine, and Russia’s ties with Iran. The deepening Israel-India relationship has also required patience and skill. Israel’s diplomatic breakthroughs in relations with African countries who have been hostile to Israel since the 1967 war were also built through patient and subtle diplomacy, often working behind the scenes. That behind-the-scenes outreach diplomacy has also helped Israel achieve new levels of contact and collaboration with many Arab countries.

It is not, of course, all sweetness and light. Hezbollah has tens of thousands of missiles aimed at Israel and, thanks to Iran’s victories in Syria, it can now enjoy much more reliable supplies from its patron. The Palestinian Question is as far from a solution as possible, and even as they fragment and squabble among themselves, the Palestinians continue to fight for Israel’s delegitimation in the UN and elsewhere. Israeli politics are as volatile and bitter as ever. The kaleidoscopic nature of Middle East politics means that  today’s hero can be tomorrow’s goat. While the breakdown of regional order has so far been a net positive for Israel’s security and power, things could change fast. In ISIS coup in Saudi Arabia, the collapse of Jordan, the fall of the Sisi government in Egypt: it is not hard to come up with scenarios that would challenge Israel in new and dangerous ways.

Former President Obama and his outgoing Secretary of State, John Kerry (neither widely regarded these days as a master of geopolitics), frequently warned Israel that its policies were leaving it isolated and vulnerable. This is to some degree true: European diplomats, American liberals and many American Jews are much less sympathetic to Israel today than they have been in the past. Future Israeli leaders may have to think hard about rebuilding links with American Democrats and American Jews.

But for now at least, Israel can afford to ignore the dismal croaking of the previous American administration. One of a small handful of American allies to be assiduously courted by the Trump campaign, Israel begins 2017 as the keystone of a regional anti-Iran alliance, a most-favored-nation in the White House, and a country that enjoys good relations with all of the world’s major powers bar Iran. Teodor Herzl would be astonished to see what his dream has grown into; David Ben-Gurion would be astounded by the progress his poor and embattled nation has made.

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8 Comments

  1. “Future Israeli leaders may have to think hard about rebuilding links with American Democrats and American Jews.”

    Why?

  2. @ Sebastien Zorn:

    I think I answered that question in the comment thread at this post at TAI – look for disappeared4x, snow leopard avatar in Disqus. I spend a lot of time at TAI – most of the other commenters are good company, and TAI has a very stern moderator.

    But, they still do not understand Israel (altho I only claim I know more than them!), which is why my 1st comment in that thread was to introduce them to Avigdor Lieberman.
    TAI still believes in credentials for foreign policy ‘experts’, and can not understand how Israel did so much good diplomacy in Russia past few years.

    Unfortunately, Israel is not a key area for their online posts. At PJM, all the Israeli posts get hijacked by two ugly commenters who believe the only Israeli worthy of life must be a muslim arab being persecuted by the Ashkenazi European colonial settlers.

    See if you can spot the two Judeophobes in the 700 comments-thread. I stopped trying to fight them after this post:

    https://pjmedia.com/homeland-security/2017/01/16/shock-israeli-poll-finds-only-4-want-a-left-of-center-prime-minister/

    This is the only time I reveal my other online identity! Do not want any more death threats from these creatures.

  3. @ Birdalone:
    My own feeling is that the Jewish or pro-Jewish commentors to the rantings of this “Tecumseh” chap, are far too polite and rational.
    I can only say that I am delighted when I see the words “Zionist thugs” constantly used by this person, because it means that he (or she) is somewhat afraid of the Jews. Which is the way it should be.
    I recommend that you stop fighting the term “Zionist thugs” and its implication, and bask in the words. We need – and have always needed – more “Zionist thugs” to instill fear into our enemies. The muslims use this approach overtly all the time. The Jews can do this in a far more subtle way and be far more effective.
    By effectively agreeing with everything this person says, it will take the wind out of his sails, as it were, as he is continuously looking for a fight.

  4. @ Birdalone:
    Couldn’t find it. Anyway, it was a rhetorical question. Unless you think Israel should worry about re-building ties with neo-Quislings who do nothing for Israel but apply pressure to make concessions to the enemy.

  5. @ Sebastien Zorn:
    Sebastien: I was wrong about answering that question in this TAI comment thread – must have been somewhere else. You can bet that Jewish Democrats are now split over their choice to stay loyal to Democratic Party. That is why O’Kerry did their 2-statesolution run at the UN after the election.

    I read the Dem donors met separately from the DNC chair meeting.

    It will mostly be a split based on age – older American Jews have not swallowed the ‘Israel is Euro-colonial project’.
    Signs are the DNC is shifting to cultivating the LGBT and climate change millionaire donors.

    Not that I am following this any longer – a pox on every US synagogue that sat shiva after DJT won.

    FLOTUS Melania just choose Stephanie Winston Wofford as Chief Strategist, representing yet another Jewish ‘faction’ re-alignment. Hollywood and Park Avenue edition.

    @ keelie:
    I believe PJM might have finally blocked tecumseh and helen4yemen after that 700 comment thread. They are not polluting (yet) the new PJM thread on Netanyahu ‘corruption’ today. tec is hard-core Code Pink/BLM/Soros open border transnationalist. h4y is solely obsessed with the idea that Jews are a ‘race’ who have no business living in Palestine.

    No way to stop them without a website moderator, which TAI does have. I had a comment blocked at TAI because they did not like one cartoon on ‘some of my best friends are Jews’!

    Not that I do not like coming here, but I do like Disqus and PJM.

  6. @ Josh:
    How do you define a world power?

    Israel has the sixth largest army in the world

    http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/armies.htm

    Last February, Standard and Poors Gave Israel’s economy an A+ rating.

    https://www.breakingisraelnews.com/60727/israels-international-credit-ratinga-says-standard-poor-jerusalem/#dDKVWzAGYkSSItUu.97

    “In 2015, Israeli startups made $9.5 billion in exits, and 150 Israeli companies are listed in NASDAQ (third largest next to China and the US).”

    https://yourstory.com/2016/07/israel-startup-ecosystem/

    Israel is a nuclear power.

    Israel is on the edge of becoming an energy exporter

    http://money.cnn.com/2016/05/26/news/israel-gas-exports-energy-independence/

    http://www.israel21c.org/israels-diamond-trade-policy-helps-developing-african-nations/

    http://www.israel21c.org/top-22-ways-israel-aided-africa-in-last-three-years/

    http://www.israel21c.org/israeli-search-and-rescue-units-aid-thousands-across-world/

    http://www.israel21c.org/israeli-water-tech-flows-to-thirsty-california/

    http://www.israel21c.org/israel-puts-a-priority-on-healthcare-in-the-third-world/

    http://www.israel21c.org/conde-nast-dubs-tlv-among-worlds-best-cities-for-architecture/

    http://www.israel21c.org/shenkar-among-top-10-fashion-schools-in-the-world/

    http://www.israel21c.org/who-ranks-idf-field-hospital-as-worlds-best/

    http://www.israel21c.org/israeli-chefs-stir-up-world-food-trends/

    http://www.israel21c.org/jewish-arab-womens-choir-wins-international-award/

    http://www.israel21c.org/israeli-chocolatiers-take-three-prizes-at-international-chocolate-awards/

    http://www.thetower.org/4011oc-israels-top-wildlife-cop-wins-international-award-for-protecting-endangered-species/

    http://www.israel21c.org/10-israeli-companies-win-2014-red-herring-top-100-europe-award/?utm_source=23.04.2014&utm_campaign=December%2025%2C%202013&utm_medium=email

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Israeli_inventions_and_discoveries

    and on and on

    What are your criteria?

  7. one more though I could continue endlessly in every imaginable field:
    “Israel Has Emerged as an R&D Alternative to Silicon Valley”

    https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/237588

    How many countries are this productive and influential? A handful. I thought it was interesting to note from that list that Israel’s army is bigger than that of Russia, Germany, France, or the UK.

    The UN should be abolished. But, short of that, Israel should be appointed a permanent member of the Security Council.

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