T. Belman. Savir is wrong to write, “Israel is exploiting the status quo to prevent Palestinian statehood through massive settlement expansion”. If only. In fact the opposite is true. The Arabs are building more houses in Area C, illegally, I might add than Israel is building units for Jews. This article also ignores that this is an election year in the US. If the PA was serious about doing this, they would have done it during Obama’s presidency rather than wait for a potential Republican administration. In any event they will wait to see who gets elected.
In the West Bank these days, one thing is clear: The current status quo of random terror by individuals and a Palestinian Authority (PA) cooperating on terror prevention with Israel will not be maintained for long. The Palestinian street buzzes with rumors about a third intifada, the downfall of President Mahmoud Abbas and the collapse of the PA. All this speculation is grounded in realistic analysis of where the current Palestinian despair may lead.
The Palestinian leadership has a tentative strategy in place for the dismantlement of the Palestinian Authority and the establishment of a state under Israeli occupation.
A senior member of the Palestine Liberation Organization and the Fatah Central Committee told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity that Abbas may be forced to make good on the warning given in his speech to the UN General Assembly Sept. 30 and pass responsibility over the West Bank to Israel as the occupying power.
“I doubt that the authority can survive the current crisis,” said the official. “With daily Palestinian casualties, without any hope on the horizon for a political process and with growing economic hardships, the authority risks collapsing. In the current situation, the existing agreements are whitewashing for the occupation. Israel is exploiting the status quo to prevent Palestinian statehood through massive settlement expansion. We have thoroughly contemplated the meanings and ramifications of dismantling the authority in such a way that at the end of the day would bring about a process for Palestinian statehood together with the international community. The days of us serving as [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu’s alibi for sustaining the occupation are over.”
These words make it clear that the Palestinian leadership has a tentative strategy in place for the dismantlement of the authority. It is not clear, however, if and when it will be applied.
This new approach/possibility of handing over the responsibility for West Bank security and civilian affairs to Israel means first and foremost moving the Fatah leadership headquarters from Ramallah to Cairo or to Amman. It also means the dismantlement of the West Bank’s separation into Areas A, B and C, as Israel would regain full civil and security control.
The source detailed other key elements: Palestinian security cooperation with Israel would come to an end, and instead of assisting the PA directly, international aid would be channeled to Palestinian nongovernmental organizations and refugee camps in coordination with the Palestinian leadership abroad.
In parallel, he said, the UN General Assembly would pass a resolution by September 2016 declaring the West Bank a Palestinian state based on the 1967 lines under Israeli occupation. Such a drastic change would have grave repercussions on the region. There is little doubt that within such a scenario, a violent full-fledged intifada would break out. Most likely, this outbreak would be a combination of the first and second intifadas: the kind of popular uprising we have seen lately combined with armed struggle by Fatah’s Tanzim, presumably in cooperation with Hamas forces from Gaza.
The region as a whole would be forced to express its solidarity with the Palestinian uprising, endangering the Israeli-Egyptian and Israeli-Jordanian peace treaties.
It’s possible that fundamentalist terror groups would join the battle, especially Hezbollah and perhaps also the Islamic State operating from the Sinai Peninsula or the Golan Heights.
Under such circumstances, Israel would face a major economic burden, both from a security point of view and in terms of dealing with the Palestinian population in the West Bank under its responsibility. Strong political pressure would be exerted by the far Israeli right on the current government to annex part of this territory. The international community, including the UN and the EU, would then be obliged to intervene in the conflict, as was the case before the Oslo Accord.
A senior PA official close to Abbas confirmed to Al-Monitor the eventuality of the dismantling of the authority. This source, who has a great deal of experience in past Israeli-Palestinian peace processes, said that the goal of such a dramatic move would be to provoke an intervention by the international community toward a two-state solution process.
The man noted that such a diplomatic process would resemble international initiatives of the pre-1991 Madrid Conference period, composed of three stages. The first would be a cease-fire agreement and an international peace conference. The second stage would consist of formulating terms of reference for an international peace conference on the two-state solution, with a Palestinian state based on the 1967 lines, and with an agreed upon timeline for implementation. The last step would be the reinstitution of the PA as a transitional institution ahead of establishing the Palestinian state government, based on the terms of reference of the international peace conference.
The above ramifications of the dismantling scenario are deeply concerning developments that could be avoided if such a peace conference took place today. Unfortunately, this seems impossible before another round of senseless bloodletting in the region breaks out.
I think the PA will dissolve in one fashion or an other.
That said they will NOT hand the keys over or some such nonsense or bluff goes against what they actually believe in. This the the tax money they get from Israel and the funds the EU and USA send them. This is how these guys live. These are the lucrative funds the PA big shots receive and the salaries of 1000s of PA employees. That is why turning the keys over to Israel is a hollow bluff.
They do not stop the security cooperation because if they did Abbas would end up dead at the hands of Hamas, deported to Jordan or jailed by Dahlan and his friends.
@ Nigel:
I feel confident that the article is pure propaganda, as for savir I know little but on the basis of this article …. and his “professorship of peace and reconcilitation” I would take what ever he says as worthless. Further, we have just witnessed over the last week the usual threat to hand back the keys immediately followed by a denial that it is about to collapse….duh?
an article unworthy of discussion.
@ bernard ross:
Yes – the entire reliance on anonymous sources, some of which isn’t actually quoted is a clear warning sign. This observation is amplified by the fact that the article takes the tone of a familiar theme which goes along the lines of “If the Israelis don’t do more to help the PA with the ‘peace’ process, all sorts of terrible things will happen”.
The sooner Israel ends this charade, the better – it’s in a position to do so, and the charade has become well beyond boring.
http://www.hirhome.com/israel/nazis_palestinians_2.htm
Nigel Said:
one does not need to be familiar with his work to quickly see his slant on the facts. read the entire article and you should discover that his perspective is synonymous with the pal perspective. One needs some familiarity with the facts in order to discern the slant.
@ bernard ross:
He may well be. Not being familiar with Savir’s work, I can’t offer an informed opinion on the matter.
Though the fact that he was involved in setting up the Peres Center for “peace” is good cause to raise eyebrows, at the very least.
Nigel Said:
quoting anonymous sources is a timeworn tactic to spread disinformation and propaganda. If you read the rest of the article you can see that savir is in sync with the entire pal narrative which is total rubbish. The threat of handing the keys lasted until BB called a meet for a plan for a fallen PA and then Abbas ran out to deny that prognosis. It appears to me that Savir is part of the propaganda for the aforementioned reasons.
@ bernard ross:
Whatever else may be said about Savir, that quote has been falsely attributed to him.
From the article:-
It’s the anonymous Fatah official who apparently said “Israel is exploiting the status quo to prevent Palestinian statehood through massive settlement expansion.”, not Savir.
Moderation?
The PA sooner rather than later be another footnote in the history the middle east. A PA state will not follow it in Judah/Samaria.
The question is will Areas A/B become autonomous regions within Israel, will they become annexed to Israel? What happens to the Arabs of the Area.
Area C or minimally the Blocks and hopefully all the Jewish Towns and open areas should be annexed to Israel. This needs to happen quickly (in particular the Jewish Towns and open areas).
It appears that Savir may be one of those foreign paid mole Israelis who intentionally spread lies and libels about Israel which end up inciting the murder of Jews in the diaspora and Israel. If so he should be brought to detention and questioned vigorously by shabak. Those spreading lies about Jews, and by proxy Israel, deserve capital punishment because the history of the jews is murder incited by the spreading of lies. Libel of Jews is inexorably tied to murder and genocide of which there should be zero tolerance in Israel.
Savir, like the Eldars’, write for al Monitor so it is likely that his lies are inciting murder by muslims as we speak.
if the Oslo created PA ceases then the elephant in the room would be the tens of thousands of PA families allowed into Israel under the Oslo accords. They would have no legal right to be in Israel and Israel could deport them. everyone would raise hell but an accomplished fact with a legal argument is difficult to change. My view is that chaos, havoc, disorder, infighting, in the enemy areas have proven to bury the false canard of stability. I would provoke destabilization and infighting that would cause as many to flee to the surrounding neighbors and then after many are gone I would go in take it over. Chaos and suffering in the enemy lands should be the new paradigm to achieve, it is proven succesful.
Ted Belman Said:
If they have a state and only control A and parts of B then C becomes a disputed territory between states and likely resolved by election…. and even under self determination an election in C would make C Israel. Meanwhile Israel can still claim a and B and not recognize them. A state would allow Israel to annex the disputed territories and perhaps that may be the under the table deal whereby the PA is not seen to be giving anything away… over time disputed territory tends to remain with the nation who controls it and eventually relations are normalized as a status quo
Ted Belman Said:
I think he is determined that they are supported by euro/world money rather than by Israel… if he can make their fall pay then it might be more attractive to him… until then the others pay.
Ted Belman Said:
the borders are a question as I read that the vatican resignation recognized their sovereignty in area under their control.. which leaves out C, and possibly B and even A as they have NO full control of any area.
gaza is the only pal area where they have borders they have control over the territory and even a state can be blockaded in war legally. If they have a state and Israel does not recognize them it means nothing… or Israel can recognize them but only in gaza.. which might then mean that is their homeland when they are deported for various reasons. A state with disputed borders does not improve their position, in fact it might cause them to lose land and be restricted to gaza at the same time as being aliens on the west bank in Israel. Notice that gaza has never sought to declare a state which I suspect would undermine the PA.
abbas is full of baloney…. as soon as netanyahu said to prepare a plan for the falling apart of the PA abbas ran out to deny it was happening and that the PA could only be succeeded by a state. The blowhard terrorist and Jew murderer who with his family should long ago have been assassinated for murder of Jews got his BS bluff called.
If it were up to me I would let enough hamas into the PA to throw plenty of fatah off rooftops and when their arab spring subsided I would go in to restore order and send all the PLO leaders and families back to tunisia or similar(libya, syria, lebanon perhaps even gaza where they could kill each other) Most likely the cheapest solution of trucks across any border who has no treaty with Israel, dump the trash and let them plague the enemy neighbors.
This has a certain plausibility. The Purpose of Oslo was to create the PA in order for it to be groomed to run a state. It doesn’t matter to them whether Oslo exists as long as they do. Now the world has conceded a Palestinian State on the ’67 borders. The PA will be a recognized government in exile and the Oslo Accords will no longer exist.
Bibi is determined to keep them in Ramallah and to keep the Accords intact though some in his cabinet want the PA to fall.
The EU will still consider the settlements to be illegal or as the US says illegitimate. The application of the Fourth Geneva Convention will be argued again.
Oslo now works for Israel. That’s why the PA is seriously considering a world without it.