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Gaffney: Rise of Sharia Law Will Bring War to the Middle East

War is on its way in the Middle East as Muslim countries are determined to force a showdown over the future of Israel, Ronald Reagan’s assistant defense secretary Frank Gaffney warned in an exclusive Newsmax.TV interview.

It’s Not Going to be Moderate

By Barry Rubin, PAJAMAS MEDIA

Ladies and gentlemen, liberals and conservatives, Obama-lovers and Obama-haters, no matter what your race, creed, gender, national origin, or level of unpaid college loans, two things should be clear to all of you:

    First, to describe the Obama Administration’s Middle East policy as a disaster–I cannot think of a bigger, deadlier mess created by any U.S. foreign policy in the last century–is an understatement.

    Second, the dominant analysis being used by the media, academia, and the talking heads on television has been proven dangerously wrong.

I won’t review all the evidence here, but it amounts to a retreat for moderates, allies of the West, and American interests coupled with an advanced for revolutionary Islamists.

On the morning of July 23, 1952, the Middle East entered a new era. The Free Officers movement took over Egypt and there followed more than a half-century of war, anti-Western hysteria, terrorism, repression, social stagnation, and the basic Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse type stuff in the Middle East. That was the Era of Arab Nationalism.

On February 11 or October 23, or November 28, 2011 the Middle East entered a new era. Whether you date it to the fall of Mubarak, the Tunisian election, or the Egyptian election what do you think is going to happen in the next half-century in the region? This is now—I call it officially—the Era of Revolutionary Islamism.

There is a great deal that will ensure the Islamists aren’t ultimately triumphant, but there’s nothing that can stop them now from being dominant ideologically in the region and politically in the majority of countries between Tunisia and Iran, probably Afghanistan and possibly Pakistan

Equally the ideas that revolutionary Islamism doesn’t exist, cannot be talked about, is not a threat, that extreme radicals are really moderates.

As early as the 1980s these trends were visible but the outcome was not inevitable.

There were four key elements in this victory for the Islamists.

First, the long, failed reign of Arab nationalist regimes went on in a downward spiral of increasingly less effective demagoguery, losing wars, and poor economic development performance as a demographic explosion took place.

Yet as late as 2000 the prospects for the Islamists looked poor. Almost a quarter-century after Iran’s revolution they had not taken over in any other country except remote Afghanistan.

Then, second, the September 11 attacks revitalized the movement. Usama bin Ladin lies moldering in the sea but his movement goes marching on.

But while bin Ladin lacked strategic flexibility, other Islamists were more effective.

And so, third, from Turkey came the idea of what might be called “stealth Islamism,” just pretend to be moderate and the suckers will buy it. Yusuf al-Qaradawi, the Muslim Brotherhood guru, also contributed here: bin Ladin is a fool, he said in effect, of course we should run in elections. We’ll win.

Reinforcing this, and fourth, came the idea of adapting Western rhetoric and public relations’ methods. After decades of bragging about how they would conquer and murder all their enemies, nothing changed in Arabic. In English, however, they spoke about being pitiable victims of imperialism, Zionism, Western racism, and so on. A key pioneer here was Edward Said, a man who hated the Islamists but they proved to be his best students

And finally, there were disastrous Western policies and misconceptions, with the presidency of Barack Obama being the crowning catastrophe. For whatever reason, the Obama Administration has empowered America’s enemies and the new oppressors of the local people. Appeasement is one thing; giving those who hate you most a boost into power goes far beyond that.

To summarize, I will merely say:

Egypt, Gaza Strip, Lebanon, Libya, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey.

Six countries or entities listed above have come—or are likely to come—under Islamist rule. Each is different.

But in all but the case of Turkey—where the Obama Administration ignored State Department reporting and has continually honored and excused an Islamist regime—and the Gaza Strip—where the Obama Administration helped entrench Hamas’s rule by forcing Israel to slash sanctions–they happened almost completely on Obama’s watch. Turkey and the Gaza Strip have become far worse on Obama’s watch.

The seventh, Syria, might merely remain under a repressive, pro-Iran, anti-American regime. And while there is a chance for a moderate democratic revolution, the White House is supporting the Islamists. If the State Department hadn’t revolted and the Saudis acted decisively, Bahrain would probably have been added to the above list.

There is no way to conceal this situation in October 2011 although it has been largely hidden, lied about, and misunderstood until this moment. Equally ideas must be quickly trashed that revolutionary Islamism doesn’t exist, cannot be talked about, is not a threat, that extreme radicals are really moderates.

Even now, the nonsense continues. The article you are reading at this moment probably could not have been published in a single mass media newspaper. Libya’s new regime calls for Sharia to be “the main” source of law. That is what the Muslim Brotherhood has been seeking in Egypt for decades. Yet we are being told that this isn’t really so bad after all.

The title of the Washington Post’s editorial, “Tunisia again points the way for Arab democracy, ” can be considered merely ironic. It certainly points the way…toward Islamist dictatorship. And then there are the New York Times and BBC headlines on the Tunisian elections telling us it is a victory for “moderate Islamists.”

They aren’t moderate. They’re just pretending to be. And you who fall for it aren’t Middle East experts, competent policymakers, or serious journalists; you’re just pretending to be.

I’m putting those headlines in my file alongside Moderate Islamists Take Power in Iran; Moderate Islamists Take Power in the Gaza Strip, Moderate Islamists Take Power in Lebanon, and Moderate Islamists Take Power in Turkey.

Without taking any position on climate issues, let me put it this way: Why are people frantic about the possibility that the earth’s temperature might rise slightly in 50 years but see no problem in hundreds of millions of people and vast amounts of wealth and resources becoming totally controlled by people who think like those who carried out the September 11 attacks?

And that brings us to the Tunisian elections. In the words of the song “New York, New York,” if the Islamists in Tunisia can be “top of the list, king of the hill” in Tunisia,” they can say, “If I can make it there, I’ll make it anywhere.”

Next stop, Egypt.

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5 Comments, 5 Threads

1. spindok

Right now in Turkey people are dying beneath the rubble because they refused Israeli help. in 1999 Israeli search and rescue and field hospital teams rescued over a dozen people there and gave medical care to many more.

Lives could have been saved. The teams were ready to go, are excellent in what they do, and could have been there in hours. Better let them die than have them touched by a Jew.

The Turks now officially hate the Jews more than they love their children. No cure for that sickness.
October 25, 2011 – 1:06 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
2. morris wise

Few have suffered the agony of Qaddafi as he was crucified with a bayonet up his rear end. But he also experienced the ecstasy from knowing that one day he would be worshiped as a hero by the Libyan people.
October 25, 2011 – 1:12 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
3. mstr

Why should anyone take Rubin’s hyperbole in the face of his unqualified support for the Iraq war? If you want a “blunder” of a century that was it. A manchurian candidate, how about GWB? But I would not go that far. He was just a recovering alcoholic, so his mind was on booze not on the consequences of breaking a four century old status quo. Ask the self-proclaimed “expert” Rubin why he himself advocated so vociferously for a war against Iraq who meant no harm to US. Now, in those days there was one dissenting voice from a junior senator from Illinois but, it was drowned in shrill of war cries, it was Barak Hussein Obama. He was rightly cautioning against a US against Iraq for that would surely break Iraq and lever Iran up. So it was a recipe for quagmire for the US in ME. Indeed, to a large extent people elected Obama on his opposition to failing wars, and the faltering economy helped too. Make no mistake, Rubin and his neocon friends have contributed to this disaster. With their “phony” expert opinions they have convinced the political elite that Iraq war was both necessary and also a cake walk. Now they all attack Obama to pin now apparent disaster on him.

If you carefully analyze what Obama has been doing, you would clearly see that first and foremost he is avoiding new foreign policy initiatives. He is placing most of his efforts on cleaning up the mess Iraq war has created. To sum up, Rubin is not right person to give policy lessons to Obama. He should first own up to his mistakes.

October 25, 2011 | 9 Comments »

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9 Comments / 9 Comments

  1. Perhaps it is about the world population explosion which doubled to 7 billion within 60 years and expected to be 15 billion by 2100. The math seems to project it earlier. Most of this population increase has occurred in the undeveloped world. Perhaps it is about control of populations and what sort of govts are best able to control large hungry populations.

  2. The opening piece is supposedly written by Barry Rubin, but it contains a rather scathing attack on Barry Rubin. Are readers supposed to interpret this like a work of modern art, searching for hidden meaning in splotches of paint and geometrical designs?

  3. How about a more hopeful paradigm.
    The true Arab Spring is yet to happen. The lesson that the Arab world will learn from the ruthfulness of their new jihadi rulers, coupled by the fear engendered from the near inevitable Israeli strikes on Hezbollah and Iran, will prompt the Arab revolutionaries to return to the streets and this time oust their Islamist masters, and replace them with true moderates, who will recognize that it would be in their own interest to make peace with Israel, and leave those pesky “Palestinians” in the lurch.
    Having raised their hopes for freedom, sharia law will not sate the young Arab street’s desire for a clean anti-authoritarian slate.
    Maimonides said that Islam would ultimately disintegrate. If that is not imminent, then at least we could soon see a Muslim reformation, and a more peaceful future. Hope springs eternal.

  4. Sis anyone notice the last post on Pyjamas where Obama is being defended by someone who talks about taking the word of Gafney or rubin. Apparently, finding out for oneself is not an optin. Obama is either incredibly dishonest and dangerous, a fool,or a stooge: possibly all 3. The future looks bleak.

  5. Obama is an isolationist of the first order, as are the European leaders. And they are mealy mouthed and wishy washy cowards as well. Besides none of the West’s leaders of these powers has the financial ability to confront their enemies or the rogue states that threaten them. The West is bloated, sick, and fearful and lacks the confidence to even defend it’s own interests. And the American public is so sick of the failed wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that they will neither tolerate nor support another American war for decades.
    America and Europe’s enemies know this and it both emboldens and empowers them. Thus the world is going to quickly become a much more dangerous place with the West’s enemies and rogue states free to make repression, oppression, violence, and military adventurism the New World Order.

  6. Every American knows the Mideast is in New Jersey. It is not Islamist; it is Italian. Israel is in New York, which is between Puerto Rico and Africa. The Islamists are in the desert, which is in Arizona. They used to live in Mexico. We need to give New York back to the Palestinians, who lived there first; then there will be peace.

  7. The cock crowed three times.

    And the West is still in denial.

    By not awakening to the dangers of Islamist totalitarianism, it only betrays itself.

    History has repeatedly given us advance warning.