Jordan Option

by Michael Makovsky, PhD and Jonathan Ruhe, JINSA

A targeted killing of a mass murderer is a horrible opportunity to waste. On Jan. 3, a U.S. drone commendably killed the mastermind of Iranian aggression, Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, and upended Iranian assumptions about declining American power in the Middle East. But this will, by itself, neither restore U.S. deterrence nor roll back Iranian power. Instead, the strike should be the opening salvo in a concerted strategy to bring about regime collapse in Tehran.

Since its birth, the Islamic republic has waged war and spilled blood – of Americans, Iraqis, Syrians, Yemenis, Israelis, Argentine Jews and Iranians, among many others – with virtual impunity. Only the Israelis have consistently retaliated. Iranian weapons in the hands of Iranian-backed groups killed 241 U.S. service members in Beirut in 1983 and more than 600 in Iraq during the 2000s. Yet Iran was never held responsible, which only emboldened its leadership.

By Dr. Mordechai Nisan, Hebrew University of Jerusalem

T Belman. This article was published in Hebrew in Volume 1, No. 2 – Fall 2019 of the journal “National Resilience, Politics and Society” published by the University of Ariel. I posted a Google translation of same. I have now replaced it with a better translation

Nisan. Palestinian integration into Jordan as a historical phenomenon of significant political importance, showing why Palestinians are rejected not because they are foreigners in Jordan, but precisely because they have a very strong connection with it. The Jordanian kingdom fears internal problems more than external ones: For her, the Palestinian threat has not weakened through times, but has taken on various forms of settlement, involvement and integration, including the possibility that in the final stage of his complex relationship with the government, the Palestinians will even take over the kingdom.

The article’s conclusions on the future are primarily related to policy decisions on this bloody issue:

A Palestinian state east of the Jordan River should be established, which will attract the Arabs of Judea and Samaria, develop as a prosperous state and avoid the current Palestinian preoccupation with terrorism.

The complexity of the relationship between Jordan and the Palestinians

For over a century, the Jordanian actor has been seeking a role and identity on the history stage. He is often debating whether to grant more or less liberties to his residents, as well as whether to integrate extensively with radical Arab forces or collaborate with moderate forces. At the same time, he maintains a secret security relationship with Israel on the one hand, and on the other, he is openly alienating himself with it on the international stage.

Abdullah’s grandson, King Hussein, discovered impressive political art when, in September 1970, for example, he appointed a Palestinian prime minister to lead the military suppression of the PLO uprising, or when he signed a peace treaty with Israel following the 1993 Oslo Accords.

Sa’ar said that the solution needs to be an autonomous Palestinian entity linked together in a federation with Jordan. “Between the Jordan River and the (Mediterranean) Sea there cannot be another state,” he said.

Attacking PM from the right, challenger blames Netanyahu’s ‘endless concessions’ for helping perpetuate the idea that a Palestinian state is the only way to achieve a peace deal

By TOI STAFF

Likud MK Gideon Sa’ar speaks at a conference at the King David Hotel in Jerusalem, December 15, 2019. (Olivier Fitoussi/Flash90)

Gideon Sa’ar, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s sole challenger in the upcoming Likud party leadership race, said Sunday that a two-state solution with the Palestinians is an “illusion,” and attacked the premier for giving the notion credibility over the last decade.

“Throughout the world they say that a two-state solution remains the path to an agreement,” Sa’ar said, speaking at a conference.”I have to say to you, this is not a position that helps anyone. Two-states in an illusion.”

By Moshe Phillips, WJW

The two-state solution would endanger Israel’s safety. The one-state solution may endanger Israel’s Jewish identity.

The two-state solution would create an independent Palestinian Arab state approximately along the pre-1967 lines. It would occupy all, or almost all, of Judea-Samaria (the West Bank) and be linked to Gaza.

So Israel would be just nine miles wide at its narrowest point — virtually indefensible. Israel’s major cities and Ben-Gurion Airport would be within easy range if a Palestinian terrorist army should arise — an unprecedented danger. Also, there would be a mass expulsion of tens of thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands, of Jews in existing settlement towns — which would be utterly immoral.

By Ahren, TOI

[..]

“I don’t believe that there is a realistic plan that can be implemented that would require anyone — Jew or Arab — to be forced to leave their home,” Friedman told the pro-settler Israel National News website.

Friedman said that Washington is “desperately” waiting for a new Israeli government to be formed. The US will release its so-called Deal of the Century soon thereafter and expects a prompt response from the next Israeli government, he said.

The peace plan will be released in its current form regardless of who the Israeli people chose to be their leader, he stressed.

The ambassador also explained why the White House has been hesitant to release the plan before a new Israeli coalition is established.

“During election periods people aren’t necessarily thinking about the long term,” he said. “They’re thinking about how do we position ourselves to gain votes in the short term. It’s not the right environment to discuss something this important, which has such long-term ramifications.”

Liberman has publicly and arrogantly laid out his demands for joining  the Right-Wing bloc headed by Netanyahu. It is his and the prime minister’s responsiblity to reach an agreement.

By David Singer, INN

Prime Minister Netanyahu and Yisrael Beyteinu leader Avigdor Liberman have finally met  – albeit for just one hour – to discuss the possibility of the 63  votes they control being converted into Israel’s next Government.

It is hard to believe that having made that long-awaited breakthrough – they would be so  foolish and obstinate to refuse to compromise their differences to prevent the Israeli electorate going through a third election within twelve months.

The direct cost to the Israeli government for new elections, including a budget for the central elections committee and state funding for parties running in the elections, is estimated at NIS 800 million ($220 million).

Outgoing US Middle East envoy Jason Greenblatt. AFP fil…

Outgoing US Middle East envoy Jason Greenblatt, who spent nearly three years trying to bring Israelis and Palestinians to the negotiation table, made last month a sudden decision to resign, before he even got a chance to show the world the policy that he secretly shaped. His resignation opened the door to a lot of speculations that the Israeli-Palestinian peace plan may not be fully revealed or is doomed to fail.

The Trump administration had said it would release the plan, dubbed the deal of the century, in the days following the Sept. 17 election in Israel, though no date has been announced.

Here is the full text of Greenblatt’s interview with Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper:

Jordanian union said stopwork action in public schools would be halted until Saturday

THE NATIONAL

Jordanian government school teachers shout slogans during a gathering outside the Jordanian syndicates building in Amman, Jordan. EPA

The Jordanian Teachers’ Syndicate has announced a temporary suspension of its public school strike until Saturday, pending talks with the government.

After an emergency meeting on Thursday afternoon, the syndicate said any further action would be announced for Sunday if the government did not respond to its demands.

The protests have continued for a fourth week, despite Jordan’s Supreme Administrative Court ordering the union to end the protests immediately on Wednesday.

ATLANTIC COUNCIL

Teachers in Jordan are starting the third week of one of the longest strikes by educators in the region’s history. The teachers are demanding a 50 percent salary increase, which they claim was promised to them by the government in 2014. However, negotiations with the government have stalled, and there is no end in sight.

The grievances raised by the teachers paint a familiar picture of a struggling working class across the Middle East that is not afraid to speak out through protests, strikes, or social media.

Whereas ten years ago, teachers and other frustrated workers may not have felt empowered enough to voice concerns about wages and quality of life, things have changed in the post-Arab Spring era. There is now an increased willingness to push back against the longstanding, but outdated social contracts between most Arab governments and their citizens.

T. Belman. That is why the King must go and be replaced by Mudar Zahran.

Extending Israel sovereignty to the Jordan River depends on it.

King assesses Netanyahu’s pledge for Jordan Valley as ‘electioneering,’ warns one-state solution with different laws for Jews would be ‘apartheid’

By TOI STAFF

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, right, and Jordan’s King Abdullah II, during the former’s surprise visit to Amman on January 16, 2014 (AP/Yousef Allan/Jordanian Royal Palace)

Jordan’s King Abdullah II says that any future Israeli annexation of parts of the West Bank would have a “major impact” on Jerusalem’s ties with his country and Egypt, the only two Arab states with which Israel has peace treaties, and warned that a one-state solution would amount to “apartheid.”

After the new Israeli government is formed, “all of us, members of our region and the international community, will jump on board to say, ‘Can we focus back on the two-state solution?’” the Jordanian royal said in an MSNBC interview broadcast Monday.

T. Belman.  Not only will the annexation not hurt peace prospects, it is in line with them.  I have advised many times that I believe that the Jordan Option will be embraced by the Trump team. This annexation is in line with the Option which provides for Israel sovereignty to the Jordan River. This option embraces the idea that Jordan will be the Palestinian State and Israel the Jewish state with the Jordan River deividing them has as the peace treaty between Jordan and Israel currently provides.

Despite Netanyahu’s election-eve vow, White House official says there’s ‘no change in United States policy at this time’

By Eric Cordellessa, TOI  10 September 2019, 11:17 pm

WASHINGTON — The White House said Tuesday that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s vow to annex the Jordan Valley and West Bank settlements would not foreclose the possibility of a political solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict if enacted.

A source familiar with the administration’s thinking told The Times of Israel that the United States was “informed of this announcement before it was made.” Trump’s team, the source went on, said they “do not think it precludes the possibility of a political settlement in the future.”

Jason Greenblatt’s departure from the Trump administration may mean the peace plan is released soon — but judging by those now leading the process, its real target is not Israel or the Palestinians

By Amir Tibon, HAARETZ

WASHINGTON — Jason Greenblatt’s decision to leave the Trump administration after two and a half years as special envoy for the Middle East will likely have no impact on the White House’s peace plan, which Greenblatt worked on for most of his time in D.C.

Officially, the administration is still saying that, regardless of Greenblatt’s departure, the plan will be released after the September 17 Israeli election. Israeli officials also believe the plan is still on track and will be published shortly after Election Day.

The contents of the plan aren’t going to change at this point and its economic chapter was already released three months ago. The political chapter’s release still doesn’t have a publication date, but despite growing skepticism of it ever seeing the light of day (some experts and analysts in Washington think it doesn’t even exist), the administration insists that its intention is to put it out within weeks. When exactly? That decision will only be made after next week’s election.

A dramatic change on the US State Department website sends a clear signal that Obama’s way of looking at the ‘West Bank’ is passe.

By David Singer, INN

The US State Department web site has removed the ‘West Bank’ and Gaza (“disputed territories”) from its list of “Countries and Areas” – signalling that it no longer regards these disputed territories as potentially comprising a separate country – in addition to  Israel, Jordan and Egypt.

This is the clearest indication yet that President Trump’s soon to be released deal of the century will abandon the “two-state solution” – the creation of another Arab State in the disputed territories for the first time ever in recorded history – propagated by President Obama and his former Secretary of State John Kerry.

The US State Department web site under Kerry had included the “Palestinian Territories” in the “List of Countries and Other Areas” between 2009 and 2017.

T. Belman. This is an excellent plan. The Jordan Option does not conflict with it but in fact makes it easier to facilitate. While Martin Sherman pushes the policy of Compensated Emigration, he goes no farther and doesn’t deal with anything else. The Jordan option improves on Sherman’s idea by providing a friendly Jordan as a receptical for emigrants. Feiglin’s Plan is a stand alone plan that will benefit from Sherman’s ideas and the Jordan Option.

In fact Both Feiglin and Sherman aren’t close to having their ideas implemented. Thus the Jordan Option will give a boost to both.

Zehut’s Peace Plan

As a background to the plan, we must examine the process that the State of Israel has undergone since the signing of the Oslo Accords. Ostensibly, the purpose of these agreements was to end the conflict by establishing a Palestinian state, thereby achieving peace. But this goal has not been achieved. Rather, the opposite is true: the number of people killed in terrorist attacks increased fivefold (1552 between 1994 and 2015, compared with 357 between 1977 and 1994). More and more cities in Israel began to be bombarded with missiles and Israeli citizens were expelled from their homes (during the Disengagement in 2005). In addition, the Oslo Accords were supposed to bring economic well-being as a result of the anticipated cut in defense spending, but in fact the state paid more than NIS 1 billion for implementing the agreements.