BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 2,373, April 12, 2026
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: While it is still too early to evaluate the effects of Operation Epic Fury/Roaring Lion in terms of the internal situation in Iran, it can be argued that the operation was the tipping point that took Iran from a strong theocracy to a weak dictatorship. Within this framework, we can talk about the crumbling of the idea of ??the rule of the clerics, segmentation of the regime’s top echelon, the radicalization of its strategic approach towards the region, the increasing murderousness of the regime’s repression of the population, and the economic aid to the regime’s supporters at the expense of the general public – the last of which will move into a battle for survival resulting in less protest and more violence. Iran is a completely different country from the one we analyzed prior to the most recent conflict. It is now a country that contains both risks and opportunities that require a completely new situational assessment and planning.
Peloni: What needs to be recognized is that more than a century ago, a state was created for the Muslim inhabitants of the region of the unraveled Ottoman empire which was colloquially termed Palestine. That was what is today Jordan. Recognizing this fact as an actual fact, makes the creation of a second Palestinian state irrelevant, redundant, and illegal. This is where our focus should lie. Jordan is what Oslo claimed to create, and ignoring this reality is what led to the Intifada’s, to the Gaza Expulsion of Jews, and ultimately to October 7. It is not too late to realign reality with history, and in doing so, great advantages might be gained for both Jews and the psychopathic Arab neighbors who call themselves Palestinians.
“To recognize a Palestinian state in the aftermath of the October 7 massacre, the deadliest slaughter of Jews since the Holocaust, and the raging multi-front war launched that day by the criminal Islamic Regime in Iran and its genocidal proxies – would not simply be a diplomatic… https://t.co/scCnBTxw2P
— ???? ?????-???? | Michal Cotler-Wunsh (@CotlerWunsh) July 27, 2025
Peloni: It is hard to spin this event as anything other than a complete disaster for anyone who has any sense of connection or fondness for Europe. The defeat of the Orban govt will prove to be a decisive shift towards all out surrender by Europe to its Leftist-Islamist elements. For Israel in particular, this marks an important loss of a close and valued ally who support and leadership has proven to be pivotal on many occasions.
Victor Orban delivers concession speech, April 12, 2026. Screengrab via Youtube.
Most Hungarians came to take his achievements for granted and won’t appreciate what they had until it’s gone.
The EU- and Ukrainian- backed Hungarian opposition just won a two-thirds supermajority in the latest parliamentary elections that ended Viktor Orban’s 16 years in office. His crushing defeat followed the EU earlier freezing €17 billion in allocated funds on rule of law pretexts, Russiagate conspiracytheories derived from wiretaps of Orban and his Foreign Minister, and Ukrainian energy blackmail as well as threats. Liberal-globalists like Ursula von der Leyen, Alex Soros, and Donald Tusk predictably celebrated.
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Peloni: Netanyahu addresses Lebaon, the breakdown in Iranian negotiations, Trump’s blockade on the Gulf, Holocaust Remembrance Day, and how current events reflect upon what is spoken each year at Yad Vashem during that solemn event.
Peloni: Only regime change has any chance of changing anything in Iran, and only under the combined efforts of America and Israel, led by the unique leadership of Trump and Netanyahu, will such a change possibly be effected in Iran. Let us hope that they are able to rid the world of this modern day Amalek.
The Regime’s program calls for ‘Death to America’ and ‘Death to Israel’, which are not vapid slogans, but religious imperatives.
Leonard Grunstein |Published:
Islamabad Talks. Screengrab via Youtube
For over 47 Years, the terrorist Iranian Regime has, directly or through proxies, attacked the US and Israel.
Peloni: The perception that there are moderates to be found among radicals is a defining flaw in the Western mind set. Radicalism has no moderates, because by defininition, it is opposed to moderation. This does not seem that this should be a difficult concept to grasp, but Western embrace of Islamists would argue against this notion.
by Pierre Rehov • April 12, 2026
Pres. Trump Meets with Syrian Pres. Jolani. Photo by Donald Trump – Trump Truth Social, Public Domain, Wikipedia
Regimes are destabilized but left standing, Jihadist ecosystems are weakened but not dismantled. Recycled figures from the same ideological mold are repackaged as partners. This sadly makes for half-finished wars presented as advisability.
Peloni: Victor Satya provides an excellent description of Lebanon captured and manipulated status, and why engaging in pointless negotiations with such an entity controlled from afar is not just detrimental to the interests of Israel and the US, but also to the interests of Lebanaon which should be forced to deal with the Iranian infection of Hezbollah so that the decisions chosen for Lebanon might once again be made by Lebanese rather than by their Iranian masters for them.
Victor Satya | April 12, 2026
Israeli airstrike in Beirut’s Tallet al-Khayyat. Screengrab via Youtube
If sovereignty could be maintained through strongly worded statements, Lebanon would be one of the most independent nations on earth. Unfortunately, reality is less impressed by press releases—and considerably more attentive to who actually holds the guns.
Hannah Arendt observed that “the sad truth is that most evil is done by people who never make up their minds to be good or evil.” (Arendt, 1977). The contemporary activist Left has made up its mind. It has simply selected the wrong target. Its moral compass does orient toward suffering, but only in the most selective sense. It orients toward Jews with remarkable precision.
If your feminism activates for gender issues globally but falls silent when Iranian women burn hijabs and face execution, (Amnesty International, 2025) you possess a gender-themed instrument for other purposes rather than feminist principles. If your anti-imperialism eloquently opposes American or Israeli policy but finds no vocabulary for Persian regional domination, you have simply branded your specific obsessions in universalist language. If your human rights advocacy operates at full intensity for Palestinian grievances but offers nothing for Iranians fighting actual tyranny, your advocacy serves purposes other than human rights.
In 2025, the number of Israel’s Jewish births was 139,676 – 74% higher than 1995 (80,400), compared to 44,029 Arab births – 21% higher than 1995 (36,500).
Update: Important interview with Trump and Maria Bartiromo above Trump’s posted statement. Highlights at the bottom.
Peloni: It was important for Trump to secure China’s support in using their influence with the Iranians towards accepting US terms. As America’s peer competitor and vocal critic of US actions regarding Iran, it was also surprising to see, but not too much so. China has no interest in fighting a war over Iran, even if they had the force projection capacity to do so, which they don’t. What China wants is to satisfy Chinese interests, and at all costs this includes keeping at least Chinese shipments from the Arabian/Persian Gulf flowing. The attempt to get Iran to accept US terms was the last gambit possible prior to closing the Gulf completely, and this is exactly why China offered its assistance via its proxy ally Pakistan in doing so. It remains to be seen if they will support or contest the US blockade as such a maneuver will come at a cost to China’s interests. Of course, as many other nations are currently doing, China is free to sail its oil fleet to America instead of the Arabian/Persian Gulf while Trump does what is needed to bend the crazy regime in Tehran to Washington’s will, if not break (hopefully) entirely. All of this comes at a price to Chinese prestige, in the region and the world, while Trump is also threatening China not to rearm Iran while this current showdown persists. So, as Iran and the US have each drawn their respective lines in the sand, it remains to be seen how China will react to this latest move to shut down Iran’s nuclear ambitions, if not the Iranian regime as well. One important tell might be that Pakistan is deploying troops to Saudi Arabia.
President Donald Trump | Truth Social
So, there you have it, the meeting went well, most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not. Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz. At some point, we will reach an “ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT” basis, but Iran has not allowed that to happen by merely saying, “There may be a mine out there somewhere,” that nobody knows about but them. THIS IS WORLD EXTORTION, and Leaders of Countries, especially the United States of America, will never be extorted.
It’s time to stop pretending. The United States of America likes to think of itself as a two-party democracy, a contest between Democrats and Republicans that has defined political life for nearly two centuries.
Peloni: There has always been an underlying dichotomy guiding the current regime in Iran. There is their radical Islamist ambition of conquering and subjugating the world, and there is their need for ready cash, steady customers and a viable revenue stream. These two objectives are actually diametrically opposed, and we have seen the radicalism take the lead over the years as the it was pursued at the cost of the income based motivations. Despite this, over the years, Westerners have continuously held their heads in the sand, ignoring the obviously stronger impulses of the Mullahs and IRGC and focused exclusively on Iran’s cash based objectives. This didn’t moderate the Iranian regime, and instead it emboldened it and facilitated its ability to further the Iranian Jihadi focus. With their turning their back on Trump’s offer to come to terms, which was in fact a great opportunity for the Iranians to once again obfuscate their true Jihadi nature in a new hudna with the West, it seems that they have chosen to clearly demonstrated that they will not set aside their Jihadi aims under any basis at all. Perhaps the West will finally accept the truth of what they are facing in Iran. Using the anti-hawk Vance to lead the peace talks demonstrated with clarity that even the most earnest of efforts to gain some form of hudna for the Iranians was turned down. Note that there are still an additional 10-days for Iran to shape-shift into accepting the hudna being offered to them, so we will see what comes over these pivotal 10 days.
Vice President JD Vance told reporters early Sunday morning that talks between the United States and Iran failed to reach an agreement for a permanent cease-fire.
Israeli airstrike in Beirut’s Tallet al-Khayyat. Screengrab via Youtube
