Chit Chat

By Peloni

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April 16, 2020 | 9,839 Comments »

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  1. https://knessetjeremy.com/ Click on foregoing to link the Jeremy’s Knesset overview and breakdown of all recent poll results

    79 days until Election Day
    Filed under: Knesset, Polls — Leave a comment August 9, 2026
    What to Watch Next

    August 17 – Likud primaries. This should clarify the composition and internal balance of the Likud list and is the first major event that could affect the polling picture.
    YTBD: On the coalition side, Smotrich is the obvious yet-to-be-determined question: independent run vs. an arrangement with Likud or Otzma. On the opposition side, the contest between Bennett vs. Eisenkot for leadership of the bloc.
    September 7–8 – Final candidate lists submitted. This is probably the most consequential remaining date before the campaign’s final stretch. By then, parties hovering below the threshold will have to decide whether to run, withdraw, merge with one another, or join larger parties.
    /blockquote>

  2. NBC Report:A new classified U.S. nuclear strategy is being drafted by the Pentagon, emphasizing the possible use of shorter-range tactical nuclear weapons in a regional conflict with China or Russia.

    OSINT613

  5. Event in Southern Lebanon leading to many injured, possibly 12 or more, has lead to an Israeli air strike in Southern Lebanon after weeks of no such responses.

    Meanwhile Israeli talks with the Lebanese were cut short today, reportedly due to the leaks coming from the Lebanese delegation.

    Don’t look at these two events as being unrelated. Kann news is reporting as such, and noting that the Lebanese are trying to tie continued negotiations on IDF limiting any responses to being attacked.

  6. Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu: Trump is a great friend of ours, and we appreciate the efforts against Iran’s aspirations – but the existence of Israel is not negotiable.
    OSINT613

  7. “stability in the right-wing bloc with 62 mandates”

    New Poll: Smotrich and Ben Gvir Equal in Mandates

    Yesterday
    A new Channel 14 mandate poll conducted by Shlomo Filber shows stability in the right-wing bloc with 62 mandates and Likud leading confidently with 31 mandates, while Gadi Eisenkot’s “Yashar” party receives 22 mandates.

    https://www.c14news.com/article/1486824

  8. Pro Iranian militia in Iraq are threatening to invade Syria if Syrian forces acts against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Jelani’s government has threatened to respond to any attack on Syria from Iraq.

  9. Key Takeaways (Last 7 Days) of all Israeli Pollsters combined polls

    Likud and Yashar are tied or nearly tied in most mainstream polls at 22–23 seats each.

    Bennett’s Together party is slipping slightly, now around 13–15 seats.

    Right–Religious bloc: typically 49–53 seats in mainstream polls.

    Center–Opposition bloc: typically 52–57 seats.

    Arab parties: consistently 9–12 seats.

    Channel 14 and Direct Polls continue to show significantly stronger numbers for Netanyahu’s bloc than all other pollsters.

    No poll shows either bloc reaching 61 seats, meaning coalition-building remains highly uncertain.

  12. Prediction Markets in many cases have more been accurate than pollsters in predicting future elections results. So, I did a little research where Polymarket and Kalshi currently stand on the Israeli election upcoming in Oct 2026.

    1. Polymarket — All Active Israeli Election Markets
    Polymarket has the broadest and deepest set of Israeli election markets. These include leadership, largest party, party primaries, and related political events.

    A. Next Prime Minister of Israel (Multi?Outcome Market)
    Gadi Eizenkot ~49–51%

    Benjamin Netanyahu ~35–36%

    Naftali Bennett ~7%

    Avigdor Lieberman ~2–4%

    Yair Lapid, Yoav Gallant, others in low single digits

    This is a multi?candidate futures market resolving to whoever becomes PM after the next election.

    B. Israeli Legislative Election Winner (Largest Party)
    A multi?outcome market for which party wins the most seats in the October 27, 2026 election.

    Current pricing:

    Likud – 62%

    Yashar – 39%

    Together – <1%

    Shas – <1%

    The Democrats – <1%

    Otzma Yehudit – <1%
    2. Kalshi — All Active Israeli Election Markets
    Kalshi lists far fewer Israeli election markets than Polymarket.
    Based on the search results, Kalshi currently lists only one major election?related market:

    A. Next Prime Minister of Israel (Multi?Outcome Market)
    Kalshi’s board mirrors Polymarket’s top contenders:

    Gadi Eizenkot – 54%

    Benjamin Netanyahu – 35%

    Naftali Bennett – 20%

    Avigdor Lieberman – 13%

  13. Likud Knesset member Amit Halevi revealed this week in an interview on Gadi Taub’s podcast that a security check flagged dozens of teachers appearing in Shin Bet systems with indicators of terror support. According to Halevi, information about those teachers was destroyed on orders from Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara.

    https://www.c14news.com/article/1483886

  14. Averaging all pollsters together of their polls in the last 8 days:

    Party Averages (rounded to nearest tenth)
    Party Average Seats
    Likud 24.8
    Yashar (Eisenkot) 22.2
    Together (Bennett–Lapid) 12.0
    Yisrael Beytenu 8.9
    Democrats 9.8
    Shas 8.0
    UTJ 8.1
    Otzma Yehudit 8.0
    Religious Zionism 4.8
    Arab parties (combined) 10.3

    ? Average Bloc Totals
    Right–Religious Bloc
    (Likud + Shas + UTJ + Otzma + Religious Zionism)

    Likud 24.8

    Shas 8.0

    UTJ 8.1

    Otzma 8.0

    Religious Zionism 4.8

    ?? Average Right–Religious Bloc = 53.7 seats

    Center–Opposition Bloc
    (Yashar + Together + Democrats + Yisrael Beytenu)

    Yashar 22.2

    Together 12.0

    Democrats 9.8

    Yisrael Beytenu 8.9

    ?? Average Center–Opposition Bloc = 52.9 seats

    Arab Parties (non?aligned)
    10.3 seats

    ? Summary
    Both major blocs average almost identical strength:
    Right–religious 53.7 vs. Center–opposition 52.9

    Arab parties average 10.3, holding the balance in most polls.

    Likud’s wide range (20–32) compresses to a stable 24.8 average.

    Yashar is extremely consistent across pollsters: 22–23, averaging 22.2.

    • have Israeli polls been reliable 2 months before the election?

      Israeli election polls have historically shown high volatility two months before an election, making them an indicator of current sentiment rather than a reliable projection of final results. Because Israel utilizes a proportional representation system, voters choose national party lists rather than regional candidates. This dynamic causes seat projections to fluctuate dramatically based on late-stage party mergers, security events, and coalition maneuvering.

      Key Factors Limiting Early Poll ReliabilityThe 3.25% Electoral Threshold: Parties must clear 3.25% of the total vote to enter the Knesset. Polls two months out frequently struggle to predict whether smaller fringe parties will cross this barrier, which drastically shifts how leftover seats are redistributed. Fluid Political Mergers: Israeli factions routinely merge or split right up until the final deadline for submitting party lists, instantly invalidating previous polls. Late-Stage Coalition Shifts: Polls measure which individual party a citizen prefers, but the prime minister is ultimately decided by post-election negotiations to form a 61-seat majority. A party leader polling strongly two months prior can still be blocked from power if rival factions refuse to join their coalition

      • Current polling is reflecting that it will be difficult to form government. Since new parties can form until September 7th, that will also possibly impact results. Polls are always an indicator in time. So, the closer to the election the polls the more likely they could be more accurate.

        • mark twain statistics

          +3 Mark Twain did not compile numerical data sets, but he famously popularized the phrase: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” You are likely looking for the origin and meaning of this famous saying rather than mathematical data.Origin of the QuotePublished in 1907: Mark Twain included the line in his autobiography chapters printed in the North American Review.Not his original phrase: Twain actually credited the remark to British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli, though no written record of Disraeli saying it exists prior to Twain’s mention.Twain’s context: He wrote, “Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself,” before using the quote.Meaning of the SayingMisleading numbers: It means people can twist and arrange numbers to make any false story look like the truth.False precision: It pokes fun at how complex math can be used to hide the simple fact that a guess or study has no real meaning.If you meant something else, like a bibliography of his books, a timeline of his life, or sales numbers for his novels, please let me know so I can help!

          I once got a laugh out of a statistics major with this quote.

          • Rahm Emmanuel -“23 state solution”
            Yesh Atid 23 seats
            Ra’am And Yesh Atid (Eisenkoot)

            “23 skidoo meaning” ”

            The phrase “23 skidoo” is an early 20th-century American slang expression that means to leave quickly, get lost, or beat it. It became one of the country’s first major viral catchphrase fads around 1905–1906. [1, 2, 3, 4]
            Meaning and Usage
            Go away: Used to tell someone to scram or beat it.
            Hasty departure: Used to describe leaving a place in a hurry, often before things turn bad (“get while the getting’s good”).
            Fad status: It functioned much like a viral meme today, appearing in vaudeville plays, advertisements, and popular songs. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]
            Origins and Theories
            The Flatiron Building myth: A popular urban legend claims the phrase started at New York City’s Flatiron Building at 23rd Street and Broadway, where high winds caused by the triangular architecture would lift women’s skirts, drawing crowds of men whom police would chase away with “23 skidoo”. However, linguistic evidence shows “23” was already used as code for leaving before the building was completed. [1, 2, 3]
            Word roots: “Skidoo” is likely an alteration of skedaddle (meaning to run away), while “23” had already gained traction independently as shorthand slang for departure. [1, 2, 3]
            Would you like to explore other vintage 1920s slang terms or look into more popular numerical idioms from American history?”

    • humor

      coffee tea or Cuba the out of towners 1968 Jack Lemon +5

      The famous line “This plane is going to Havana, Cuba” occurs at the very end of the The Out-of-Towners (released in 1970, not 1968) starring Jack Lemmon as George Kellerman. After surviving 24 hours of total disaster in New York City, he and his wife decide to move back to Ohio, only for their flight home to be hijacked.The Final TwistGeorge and Gwen Kellerman decide against moving to New York after enduring a night of endless misery.On their flight back to Ohio, a hijacker takes over the plane.The hijacker announces that the aircraft is being diverted to Cuba, capping off their trip with one final absurd catastrophe.

      Coffee, tea, or capitulation? Treason, anyone?

      • ra’am support for terrorism

        +6 Allegations of terror links surrounding Israel’s Ra’am Party center on its ideological roots in the Islamic Movement, associated charities, and controversial statements by its members, though the party officially rejects violence and participates in democratic elections.Affiliations and InvestigationsCharitable Funding: Israeli authorities initiated dissolution proceedings against Aid 48 (the Islamic Association for Orphans and the Needy) and another associated nonprofit over accusations that funds were transferred to Hamas-linked entities abroad.Ideological Roots: As the political wing of the southern branch of Israel’s Islamic Movement, Ra’am is historically inspired by the Muslim Brotherhood, placing it under intense scrutiny by right-wing Israeli politicians.Party Splits: Leader Mansour Abbas announced moves to separate the party from the Shura Council—the religious advisory body of the Islamic Movement—following political pressure and discussions in Israel regarding potential bans on the Brotherhood.Political Controversies and StatementsStances on Hamas: Party leaders have faced severe backlash for refusing explicit blanket condemnations of Hamas or for statements describing Hamas as part of the Palestinian national fabric, alongside separate incidents where individual Knesset members minimized October 7 atrocities.Electoral Challenges: Right-wing NGOs and political opponents have repeatedly petitioned Israel’s Central Elections Committee to disqualify Ra’am under laws forbidding support for armed struggle against the state, though election authorities and legal representatives have historically permitted the party to run due to a lack of direct evidence tying the institutional party to illegal acts.

        Yesh Atid is Eisenkot’s party

        • Correction:

          yesh atid lapid eisenkot +7 Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid and Naftali Bennett formed the joint “Together” alliance, while Gadi Eisenkot leads the separate Yashar party, creating a fractured anti-Netanyahu opposition ahead of Israel’s October 2026 elections.The Lapid-Bennett AllianceThe “Together” Party: Formed in April 2026 as a joint electoral list combining Yesh Atid and Bennett’s faction, preserving each party’s ability to split later.Concessions for Unity: Yair Lapid offered to drop to the third spot on the joint list to help entice broader integration within the centrist bloc.Eisenkot’s Stance and YasharIndependent Path: Gadi Eisenkot launched the Yashar party after leaving National Unity, prioritizing a direct democratic primary structure and national service reforms.Rejection of Surprise Merger: Eisenkot criticized the sudden nature of the Lapid-Bennett announcement and declined their initial invitations to merge, choosing instead to run independently as a top challenger to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

  16. Please note that the link to the Regavim report on the “Settler Violence” is being added at the top of the Left Column for easy reference. Please share this document with family and friends. The Two State Delusionists are making a new push, and as expected, they are using the false narrative of Settler Violence to make the case to the Washington Peace Processors in favor of Washington’s all time favorite failed policy.

  20. Consequences for European insanity continues:

    Three women stabbed in Paris, one pregnant. The attacker’s words: Allah told me to do it.

    -OSINT613

    Until Europe recognizes and acts on the incompatibility of its Arab emmigre with European society, the conquest of Europe will proceed unabated.

  21. Latest Polls summary:

    Yashar (Eisenkot) is consistently leading or tied with Likud in most polls.

    Likud ranges 20–23 seats in most mainstream Israeli polls (except Direct Polls, which tends to show higher Likud numbers).

    Together (Bennett–Lapid) is sliding, hitting 14 seats in the newest Kantar poll.

    Center–opposition bloc is ahead in most surveys, typically 59–61 seats, though Direct Polls shows the right–religious bloc ahead.

    PM suitability is now essentially Netanyahu ? Eisenkot, a major shift.

  22. Someone else wrote this and I strongly concur:

    Now that Mamdani has realized he has no authoritarian power to arrest Netanyahu, I’ll just put it out there in plain English.
    If you’re a Jew who lives in New York, and you voted for this guy, you’re an idiot! I don’t care if you’re a Jew and a Democrat, you’re still an idiot. If you are a Jew who doesn’t live in New York, and you supported this dipshit….you are a moronic idiot

    • By the way, has anybody noted the irony of the Hungarian (Magyar) equivalent of an anti-MAGA candidate and now national political leader having the name, “Peter Hungarian?”

      “eddie murphy the name you know”

      ” +1 You are referencing Eddie Murphy’s iconic political satire, “The Distinguished Gentleman” (1992). In the film, Murphy plays Thomas Jefferson Johnson, a charismatic Florida con man who takes advantage of a deceased incumbent’s popularity to win a seat in Congress. His brilliant, cynical slogan for the campaign was exactly: “Vote Jeff Johnson. The name you know.”‘

      • What’s more, St. Peter’s Crown is symbolically regarded as the embodimemt of Hungarian sovereignty. Every regime for the last 1100 years has sought to possess it. At times was hidden.

        How likely is it it that his being sponsored by the Soros group to fomemt a color revolution is a coincidence?

        • All that’s left would be for this or some other Pope to elevate him to sainthood and he’d be Saint Peter Hungarian.How’s that for messing with a people’s minds.

        • Correction: That’s St. Stephen’s Crown. St. Peter was the founder of the Roman Catholic Church, if I remember correctly.

          “ Oh, that’s different. Neever mind.” – Gilda Radner

          Though I wonder if
          it might have had some impact, Hungary being a historically Roman Catholic majority country.

  24. I’m glad Judit Polgar turned down Peter Magyar’s offer to be the Jewish figurehead for this anti-Israel post-Orban Hungarian regime that just swept into power, suspiciously if you ask me.

    I usually despise documentaries but the one about her on Netflix is terrific. And fun.

    “Queen of Chess”

    https://www.netflix.com/us/title/81749912?s=i&trkid=13747225&shareType=Title&shareUuid=58676B34-3D1B-4405-8F79-B2C8CDCA920E&trg=cp&unifiedEntityIdEncoded=Video%3A81749912&vlang=en

  25. If the following comes to fruition, I believe it could be potential a very positive change to the Israeli political scene.

    Ayelet Shaked and Yuli Edelstein in Talks to Form New Right?Wing Party
    Reports indicate that former Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked and Knesset member Yuli Edelstein are in advanced talks to merge and form a new right?wing political party ahead of Israel’s October 2026 elections
    http://www.ynetnews.com

    According to sources close to both figures, they have been fully coordinating on strategy, party principles, and recruitment plans for the new entity

    The proposed party aims to unite mainstream right?wing voters dissatisfied with the current coalition and modern Orthodox Israelis who do not align with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party
    The Jerusalem Post

    Edelstein, who has signaled his intention to leave Likud, is reportedly considering two possible paths:

    Completing 61 mandates for a “change bloc” that could form a government, or

    Forcing a broad unity government to separate Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from ultra?Orthodox influence
    http://www.ynetnews.com

    Shaked has made it clear she will return to politics only within a right?wing party, ruling out joining Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid’s “Together” coalition, which she says is not right?wing
    Israel News

    . She has also called for a right?wing alliance with Bennett and Avigdor Liberman to strengthen the opposition bloc against Netanyahu
    Yahoo
    Yahoo
    .

    While the talks are still in the early stages, the combination of Shaked and Edelstein — both experienced right?wing leaders — could signal a significant shift in the political landscape, potentially creating a new force in the anti?Netanyahu camp.

    • Rafi
      Just what the Right needs, more parties to waste more votes.

      As the Left is solidifying their efforts, such as they are, the Right is splintering. Unity is what brought the Right to power with 64 seats. How will the splitting parties and new parties compensate for the loss of seats.

    • Raffi clearly you are no fan of Israel’s best PM, Bibi.

      You lack pragmatism. All those on the ‘right’ that you mention (Ayelet, Bennet) have proven themselves to be inept, unreliable and compromised. You likely despise the Haredim too. More so than the ayatollahs, right?
      With your thinking, (as Peloni rightly points out – you’ll just split the votes on the Right), the worst possible leaders (like Lapid) can be the next PM, G-d forbid.

      2

      • I love the Haredim that have the guts to serve in the IDF, in-spite of strong over the top opposition from many fellow Haredim. I love Zionists and especially those that can take a different point of view without attacking a fellow Zionist.