Gaza: What next?


[..] However, the “Palestinian-Taliban,” now in charge of the zone can only go forward. With all ties to Mahmoud Abbas broken, the Ismael Hanieh (Gaza) – Khaled Mishaal (Damascus) junta has to rapidly consolidate its grip over Gaza and even begin a campaign to destabilize the West Bank. A Hamas-only “regime” in Gaza, free from the PA international commitments would most likely resort to transform the enclave into a super-bastion for Jihad. This would include:

    1. A mass mobilization, in an attempt to levy an Army of more than 60,000 fighters. Hamas’ expectation is to see Iran and eventually Syria and Hezbollah heavily involved in providing weapons and training. But such a projection could be mitigated by international opposition.

    2. The creation of dozens of “Fallujahs” in the strip in anticipation of an “outside” offensive at some point. A series of no-surrender fortresses to deter any would-be attacking force.

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June 30, 2007 | 0 Comments » | 121 views

Bat Ye’or and her ground breaking ‘Eurabia’

By Ted Belman

I just spent a couple of days with the diminutive, courageous, historian, Bat Ye’or, author of Eurabia and Islam and Dhimmitude among others. She was in Toronto as the featured speaker at a conference hosted by The Fraser Institute titled Immigration Policy, Border Controls, and the Terrorist Threat in Canada and the U.S. More about that later.

While in town she found time to be interviewed on the Michael Coren Show. Michael Coren wrote about her in his National Post article Eurabia’s author comes to Canada which I urge you to read.

The conference was a very big success due to the top notch speakers the Fraser Institute attracted. As good as they were, Bat Ye’or stole the show. The audience was well aware of her pioneering work though they may have been short on details. They were in attendance in recognition of the importance of the subject matter but mainly to hear her address.

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June 30, 2007 | 3 Comments » | 159 views

Growing consensus in Israel:withdrawal from West Bank no longer possible

No one to give them back to
By Aluf Benn Haaretz 28 June 2007

The demonstrators and writers of articles commemorating 40 years of Israeli occupation of the territories this month can save their placards and high-brow expressions for repeated use – they will need them in the coming years.

There is a growing consensus in Israel that a withdrawal from the West Bank is no longer possible. It may be possible to hide the Palestinians behind a separation fence, but it is impossible to relinquish control over them.

If the government considers control over the Palestinians as inevitable and not as a temporary situation, it must prepare accordingly: through the correct public relations abroad, through building task-specific security forces, and through fair treatment of the residents of the West Bank.

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June 28, 2007 | 0 Comments » | 126 views

Israel’s Black African Priorities

by David Bedein, INN

Rescue operations conducted by the government of Israel to bring more than 16,000 Ethiopian Jews to Israel represented one of the few times in history that a Black African community willingly and enthusiastically moved to a majority-White Western country. From the point of view of Ethiopian Jewry, they had come home to Zion. Having visited Ethiopian Jews during their trek from Ethiopia during Operation Moses in 1984, this reporter heard numerous stories from Ethiopian Jews about their own prophetic lore. Passed down from one generation to the next was a tradition that Ethiopian Jews would be repatriated to Zion when the last emperor of the Solomonic dynasty would fall. And when Haile Selassie, the last emperor of Ethiopia, was overthrown in 1974, that was one of the signs that Ethiopian Jews would indeed come home.

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June 27, 2007 | 2 Comments » | 181 views

The Energy Challenge

By Alan W. Dowd,

[..] But going nuclear isn’t the only answer for America. There are multiple paths to energy independence, and as the chaos and wars of the oil-rich Middle East continually remind us it is in the national interest to pursue all of them. That includes nuclear energy, bio-fuels like ethanol, hybrid technologies, conservation strategies like those in the Senate bill—and fossil fuels from right here in America.

If you think the United States has exhausted its own reserves of fossil fuels, think again. The Energy Information Administration, a sub-agency of the Department of Energy, reports that, at this moment, the US has 29.9 billion barrels of oil. In other words, the US actually possesses more oil than oil-exporting countries such as Mexico, Norway and the UK.[3]

Plus, there are vast, untapped oil fields and other energy sources inside the US:

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June 27, 2007 | 2 Comments » | 146 views

Gaza: Tehran’s greater game

Amir Teheri, an Iranian and respected journalist, lays it out.

[..] Tehran, meanwhile, was concerned that a Hamas-Fatah deal would strengthen those in the Syrian leadership who dislike what they see as their country’s increasing vassalization to Tehran. The same Syrian leadership elements recently opened an indirect dialogue with Israel and received some encouraging hints from Israeli Premier Ehud Olmert.

Syrian critics of the alliance with Tehran pointed to the Mecca deals as a model that might help repair ties with moderate Arab states, placate the United States and, eventually, even persuade Israel to give up the Golan Heights, which it won in the 1967 war. A Hamas defection followed by a Syrian change of policy would have left the Islamic Republic isolated and exposed.[..]

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has structured his foreign policy on the assumption that a military showdown with America and Israel is inevitable. He also thinks that, when and if it comes, the radical forces led by Tehran would be able to resist long enough and to raise the cost of the conflict in human terms to break the adversaries’ will to fight.

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June 27, 2007 | 0 Comments » | 171 views

Bolton: Bush ‘doesn’t see sanctions can’t stop Iran now’

David Horovitz, THE JERUSALEM POST Jun. 27, 2007

Sanctions and diplomacy have failed and it may be too late for internal opposition to oust the Islamist regime, leaving only military intervention to stop Iran’s drive to nuclear weapons, the US’s former ambassador to the UN, John Bolton, told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday.

Worse still, according to Ambassador Bolton, the Bush administration does not recognize the urgency of the hour and that the options are now limited to only the possibility of regime change from within or a last-resort military intervention, and it is still clinging to the dangerous and misguided belief that sanctions can be effective.

As a consequence, Bolton said he was “very worried” about the well-being of Israel. If he were in Israel’s predicament, he said, “I’d be pushing the US very hard. I am pushing the US [administration] very hard, from the outside, in Washington.”

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June 26, 2007 | 4 Comments » | 165 views

A state with provisional borders

By Ted Belman

Sharm el-Sheikh is the head fake. You probably went for it. Forget about it. Its only for show.

In reality here’s what going down.

Bush has not abandoned the two state solution.

US and Israel wanted to proceed on the Roadmap but couldn’t because ending terror and violence was a pre-condition to moving to the second phase. So for some months now they have been talking about bypassing the conditions and going to the second phase which provides

“In the second phase, efforts are focused on the option of creating an independent Palestinian state with provisional borders and attributes of sovereignty, based on the new constitution, as a way station to a permanent status settlement.”

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June 26, 2007 | 2 Comments » | 159 views

Warnings from Gaza

By Newt Gingrich, Washington Times

The Hamas victory in Gaza is a warning that World War IV (as Norman Podhoretz has called it) is going to be long and hard. It is also a warning that the West is currently losing that war.

These defeats are not a function of the courage and will of the American people. In a June poll sponsored by American Solutions, 85 percent of the American people said it was important to defend America and its allies. Only 10 percent were opposed. On an even stronger question, 75 percent said it was important to defeat America’s enemies. Only 16 percent disagreed. [..]

The tragedy of the current debate in Washington is that while the inarticulateness and the failing performance of the Bush administration have led the American people to desire a new direction, the politics of the left insists that the new direction be less than President Bush. Yet the lessons of Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, New Jersey, the JFK plot, the Algerian bombings, the Iranian nuclear program, the conflict in Lebanon and now the defeat in Gaza all point to the need for a war policy that is substantially bigger and more robust than Mr. Bush.

As the forces of modernity are being ground up by terrorism, our political process is not producing a Churchill or Roosevelt to rally the democracies but instead embracing advocates of surrender withdrawal and defeat. As women are being oppressed, we remain silent. Faced with the weakness, vacillation and inarticulateness of the leaders of Israel and America, the people see the violence as senseless, the bloodshed as repugnant and the current strategies as too flawed to continue to invest in them. CONTINUE

June 26, 2007 | 4 Comments » | 132 views

“Zionism is Not Racism” speech by Chaim Herzog

One of the great speeches of the Twentieth Century

The late Chaim Herzog, former president of Israel and Israeli Ambassador to the UN, gave this stirring defense of his country on the floor of the United Nations on November 10, 1975. The address was made in response to UN Resolution 3379, declaring that Zionism is racism.1 Today the far Left, UN functionaries, Euro-socialists and Islamo-fascists continue to maintain that Israel is a racist entity, which will undoubtedly be reflected in the “peace negotiations” they broker with the Palestinian Authority. The truths expressed in this speech continue to serve as a lasting rejoinder to the UN’s – and the world’s – anti-Israel bias.

Mr. President,

It is symbolic that this debate, which may well prove to be a turning point in the fortunes of the United Nations and a decisive factor in the possible continued existence of this organization, should take place on November 10. Tonight, thirty-seven years ago, has gone down in history as Kristallnacht, the Night of the Crystals. This was the night in 1938 when Hitler’s Nazi storm-troopers launched a coordinated attack on the Jewish community in Germany, burned the synagogues in all its cities and made bonfires in the streets of the Holy Books and the Scrolls of the Holy Law and Bible. It was the night when Jewish homes were attacked and heads of families taken away, many of them never to return. It was the night when the windows of all Jewish businesses and stores were smashed, covering the streets in the cities of Germany with a film of broken glass which dissolved into the millions of crystals which gave that night its name. It was the night which led eventually to the crematoria and the gas chambers, Auschwitz, Birkenau, Dachau, Buchenwald, Theresienstadt and others. It was the night which led to the most terrifying holocaust in the history of man.

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June 26, 2007 | 5 Comments » | 400 views

What Israeli policy should be

By Barry Rubin


This dose of reality brings us to Plan B. Forget about grandiose plans and don’t be intoxicated with wishful thinking. It is in the common interest of the West, Israel , and certainly Fatah itself to keep the current regime in power in the West Bank . Of course, this is premised on two things. First, the reality that there is nothing better available as an alternative since there is no real moderate force of any importance in Palestinian politics.

Second, there is the very large possibility that Fatah, or at least large elements in it which Abbas will not even try to control or persuade otherwise, will continue to view attacking Israel as its top priority and indeed principle reason for existence. Third, there is a very high likelihood that Fatah will once again act in a suicidal manner, a pattern which has characterized its history.

What is needed as an experiment is limited cooperation based on practical issues. The message should not be: “Let’s save that wonderful moderate Abbas who is eager for peace.” But rather: “Mr. Abbas and colleagues, you are on the verge of extinction. Give us some reason to save you if you want our help.”

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June 26, 2007 | 4 Comments » | 191 views

Olmert’s Statement at the Sharm el-Sheikh Summit

I have deleted the bullshit because it made me sick.

Bottom line is that he still needs consent of his Cabinet for the release of prisoners and he only said that we will “continuously pass on tax money” but he didn’t say how much or when. Also his recognition of the new government is conditional.

The new government in the Palestinian Authority, which recognizes Israel’s right to exist and a solution of two states for two peoples, which is ready to implement the agreements signed, one which eschews terror and violence as a means and a goal, and a government which has no members of terrorist organizations, is a government which we recognize. We will work together to implement the Roadmap and advance the goals set out therein.

[Strangely worded. I read this to mean we will recognize the new government providing…]

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June 25, 2007 | 2 Comments » | 96 views

‘Tear down those camps!’


June 12 was the 20th anniversary of Ronald Reagan’s “tear down this wall!” speech at the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin. [..]

Reagan smiled. ‘The boys at State are going to kill me,’ he said, ‘but it’s the right thing to do.'”

Minutes later, Reagan called out to the Soviet leader,

    “if you seek peace, if you seek prosperity for the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, if you seek liberalization, come here to this gate. Mr. Gorbachev, open this gate. Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!”

Two years later the wall was broken into a million pieces, along with the Soviet Union itself.

On Sunday, another anniversary arrives, this time of one of the most pivotal speeches of the Bush presidency. On June 24, 2002, Bush called on “the Palestinian people to elect new leaders, leaders not compromised by terror.”

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June 25, 2007 | 0 Comments » | 102 views

If the West folds rather than fights…

By Ted Belman

Islam will take over the world.

Iran is well on its way to controlling Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, West Bank and Afghanistan. Egypt has now embraced Hamas and will defend them if Israel attacks. In addition it is likely that Egypt and Jordan will fall to the Muslim Brotherhood. Yemen is already part of the Islamic advance.

It is not hard to imagine that all these countries will coalesce and that Sudan and Nigeria will join. Then how can Northern Africa not, including Libya,Tunisia Algeria and Morocco. Turkey too is becoming Islamist and will join this axis.

Iran also has allies in South and Central America. Europe will crumble. Russia is losing the demographic battle.

Can all this be reversed or even stopped without a major war?

Gary J. Schmitt, AEI, asks the question, To Be, or Not to Be . . . an Empire. He wants to know what “America’s grand strategy will–or should–be after George W. Bush’s presidency.”

We all want to know.

June 25, 2007 | 13 Comments » | 101 views

Egypt’s intel chief decided Hamas takeover served Cairo’s interests

Geostrategy-Direct, , June 27, 2007

LONDON – Egypt has cooperated with Hamas in allowing shipments of weapons, munitions and explosives that facilitated the Islamic takeover of the Gaza Strip last week, Western intelligence sources said.

Egypt concluded that a Hamas takeover would halt or reduce insurgency infiltration in the Sinai Peninsula.

“The Egyptians were in the picture as early as several weeks ago,” an intelligence source said. Hamas leader Khaled “Masha ‘al discussed the Fatah strategic threat and said Hamas would stop [Fatah security chief Mohammed] Dahlan at any cost.”

In a recent telephone conversation with Egyptian intelligence chief Gen. Omar Suleiman, Masha’al said Dahlan and his allies were working with Al Qaida-aligned groups to undermine Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The source quoted Masha ‘al as saying that Fatah was allowing Al Qaida to infiltrate the Sinai Peninsula to facilitate attacks on the regime of President Hosni Mubarak.

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June 25, 2007 | 0 Comments » | 75 views

Lebanon, Gaza, the Broader Syro-Iranian Offensive

By Walid Phares, Political Mavens

The latest dramatic military and terror events in Gaza and Lebanon can be viewed from a regional geopolitical perspective: A Syro-Iranian axis offensive on its (their) primarily western front stretching along the Mediterranean coast.
In previous analyses I have argued that the Tehran-Damascus axis is involved in a regional campaign to seize as much physical terrain and score as many victories across the Middle East in order to consolidate their strategic posture before 2008; the year they believe Americans will limit – perhaps diminish — their moves because of the U.S. presidential campaign season.
Iran’s and Syria’s offensives have been well-coordinated on battlefields across the Levant since last January, with a clear escalation since early spring.

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June 25, 2007 | 0 Comments » | 97 views

Egypt “declares War” on Israel

DEBKAfile Exclusive: Sudden Egyptian decision to lift anti-Hamas blockade of Gaza, day after condemning Hamas Gaza takeover as illegal coup

President Hosni Mubarak’s astonishing U-turn renders pretty pointless the conference he convened in Sharm al Sheikh Monday, June 25, to discuss the Hamas takeover crisis. Only Saturday, he denounced Hamas for staging an illegal coup. Sunday, June 24, our exclusive intelligence sources report an official VIP convoy headed by Hamas’ interior minister Siad Sayam – who is believed to have masterminded the Hamas coup in Gaza – was allowed to drive out of Gaza with 15 senior Hamas commanders who led the military action against Fatah last week. Their cars bore official Palestinian government plates. Egyptian security units escorted the convoy from Rafah to Cairo international airport, where the Hamas delegation emplaned for Damascus.

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June 24, 2007 | 4 Comments » | 106 views

Abbas abandonned by US as a weak horse

DEBKAfile Exclusive: Israel adopts US decision to switch backing from Mahmoud Abbas to Palestinian PM Salim Fayyad

June 24, 2007, 8:45 PM (GMT+02:00)

Ahead of the Sharm al Sheikh summit, the Olmert cabinet decided Sunday, June 24, to release frozen funds “in a phased process to support a new Palestinian government” – not the Palestinian Authority, which is headed by Mahmoud Abbas.

Salim Fayyad holds the key finance and foreign ministries as well as the premiership in the Ramallah-based emergency government established after Hamas’ takeover of the Gaza Strip earlier this month. Amounts owing to Israeli suppliers will be first deducted from the total which will be remitted in installments.

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June 24, 2007 | 1 Comments » | 217 views