A state with provisional borders

By Ted Belman

Sharm el-Sheikh is the head fake. You probably went for it. Forget about it. Its only for show.

In reality here’s what going down.

Bush has not abandoned the two state solution.

US and Israel wanted to proceed on the Roadmap but couldn’t because ending terror and violence was a pre-condition to moving to the second phase. So for some months now they have been talking about bypassing the conditions and going to the second phase which provides

“In the second phase, efforts are focused on the option of creating an independent Palestinian state with provisional borders and attributes of sovereignty, based on the new constitution, as a way station to a permanent status settlement.”

Even so, it goes on to provide,

“As has been noted, this goal can be achieved when the Palestinian people have a leadership acting decisively against terror, willing and able to build a practicing democracy based on tolerance and liberty. With such a leadership, reformed civil institutions and security structures, the Palestinians will have the active support of the Quartet and the broader international community in establishing an independent, viable, state.”

Not to worry, we’ll forget about this part.

This was necessitated in part because Hamas was determined to be the spoiler. When Hamas took over Gaza, that created a second problem namely that there was not a functioning government. So it was decided to form a new government excluding Hamas. This new government is headed by Fayyed who is a technocrat as are all the other ministers. I think the intention was to remove it from Fatah and Abbas. In 6o days it must be approved by the PNC or elections must be called. I think neither will happen and the sixty days will be extended on the basis of national emergency. The US has been busy lining up support for this government but the SC nixed it as did Hamas, Syria and Iran. Nevertheless the US will proceed with it.

Negotiations have been going on for some time to work out a state with provisional borders. I have no idea what this is. It seems to me they have it already. Maybe all that is necessary is for the US and PA to declare Palestine a state. Abbas is on record of not wanting to.

The object of the exercise is to get Saudi Arabia, Jordon , Egypt, Israel, PA and the US to agree. No easy task but made easier due to Olmert’s desperation and genuflection. Tony Blair is being recruited for this mission impossible. Yet his portfolio is “focused on Palestinian Arab economic and political reform.” This too is a head fake.

Nevertheless Olmert is on record of wanting to discuss the nature of the state which I interpret as, limitations of its sovereignty. Israel must retain control of air rights at a minimum. In fact the Roadmap provides that such a state will only have “attributes of sovereignty”. Now Israel always insisted on the state being demilitarized but has violated its own demands by supplying arms and munitions.

Even iif such a state can be agreed upon, how is it to be legitimated. It is intended to include Gaza in the deal but Gaza is not represented nor is Hamas who won the last election.

The US and EU couldn’t get Security Council recognition of Kosovo because of the Russian veto. They intend to declare it a state anyway and some states will recognize it and others won’t. The same thinking could apply to Palestine.,

Are you with me so far?

Even if all this can be accomplished, Israel still has Hamas, Hezbollah, al Qaeda, Syria and Iran dedicated to its destruction. And Israel will have to defend itself from its old Auschwitz borders.

A snowball’s chance in hell.

June 26, 2007 | 2 Comments »

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2 Comments / 2 Comments

  1. Ted here are some possible spoilers to your premis:

    Both Bush and Olmert enjoy low popularity and little popular mandate to radically alter status quo. American pre election electionaring in full swing.Olmert awaiting critical public reports from Winograd commission and from State Inspector General of which either could force him from office. Both expected in Aug. or Sept. at the latest. Liebermans party could bolt the coalition along with defectors from Kadima? Possible? Hamas could eliminate Abbas and or Fayad? Possible? A war with Syria, Hizbola, and Hamas could break out? Possible? Bushes opposition in the Republicn party could put a damper on this not to mention Democrats vieing for Jewish money and votes. It might ignite those dormant forces that have been quiet till now in Israel to mount a popular move to oust him even before expected reports come out and even force the reports to be made public earlier than anticipated. The Pali street might oppose! Hamas will oppose! Abbas oposition in Fatah party might oppose? The attorney General might issue indictments(doubtful)? I could unite to silent right wing in Israel to publically unite and try to remove olmert without waiting for critical reports(Possible)? Keeping in mind Both Bushes and Olmerts low popularity one could argur that neither have a public mandate to alter the status quo in this Bush has advantage due to American political system that makes it all but impossible to remove him but not so for Olmert and Israeli System Olmert can be removed.

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