Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu has lost 62.5 percent of its support since the latest corruption allegations hit the party, and if it falls further, it may not return to the Knesset in the March 17 election, according to a Panels Research poll taken for The Jerusalem Post and its Hebrew sister publication, Maariv Sof Hashavua.
Last week’s poll predicted eight Knesset seats for Yisrael Beytenu, down from the party’s current 13. This week’s poll conducted on Wednesday says it will win only five.
Labor rose from 23 seats in last week’s poll to 24, and the Likud gained two seats in a week, from 21 to 23. The poll predicted 17 seats for Bayit Yehudi, 11 for Yesh Atid, seven each for United Torah Judaism, Koolanu and Meretz, six for the United Arab List-Ta’al, five for Hadash, four each for Shas and former Shas chairman Eli Yishai’s breakaway party, Yahad Ha’am Itanu, and zero for Balad and Kadima.
@ SHmuel HaLevi 2:
The Likud will lose big in Ashkellon Netivot, Ashdod and Beer-Sheba. Memories of the Last two Gaza Conflicts will automatically deplete the Likud home base. Reservists from all social strata will look to alternatives other than Likud and BB.
Every terrorist attack will reduce votes from the left to the right and center right thus weakening the current voter preference for addressing social issues and put securitty up as the top priority.
Polls this far out from actual elections mean nothing.
@ woolymammoth:
The following is our HS youngsters run cumulative poll carried out in the North covering six cities.
CUMULATIVE: We do not erase the previous data as we never change the questions.
These are the results to date since about a month ago.
Likud: 26
Jewish Home: 19
Hybrid Labor: 15
Arabs: 11
Lapid: 9
Kohalon: 8
Lieberman: 8
Meretz: 7
Torah: 7
Ishai: 5
Shas: 4
One mandate is unassigned due to calculation control limits.
Pre-election polls indeed can be quite incorrect, especially many months before voting day. However, I have learned over many decades to pay careful attention to the follow-up questions that are used by better poll designers, the responses to which can help explain what the voting public is thinking about.
In the case of the coming Knesset election, I have been following polling results posted online by Jeremy’s Knesset Insider. I have no idea whether they are focused on leftists, rightists, centrists, the religious vote, or the Arab vote. But I think information such as Jeremy’s, copied below, will give all Israpundit readers and comment writers better insights about the coming election:
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72 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
48 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)
17% have not yet made a final decision on who they are voting for.
Additional Questions:
Who would you prefer to see as Prime Minister?
Netanyahu 39%, Herzog 36%, Don’t Know 25%
*Likud (89%), Bayit Yehudi (77%), Koolanu, UTJ, Shas, Yishai voters clearly prefer Netanyahu.
*Labor, Yesh Atid & Meretz voters clearly prefer Herzog.
*Among undecided voters 40% prefer Herzog, 30% Netanyahu.
What are the two most important issues to you (answers come out more than 100%)?
58% Social & Economic Issues (80% Herzog, 42% Netanyahu)
41% Foreign & Defense Issues (54% Netanyahu, 33% Herzog)
20% Advances your personal interests (22% Herzog, 15% Netanyahu)
20% Religion & Tradition Issues (25% Netanyahu, 6% Herzog)
13% Who is the leader of the party (14% Herzog, 12% Netanyahu)
11% Who is on the Knesset list (14% Herzog, 12% Netanyahu)
3% Different answers (14% Herzog, 12% Netanyahu)
3% All of the above (5% Netanyahu, 2% Herzog)
*Haredim prefer issues on religion & Secular prefer economic issues.
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Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
Correct me if I am wrong again, Peres was always polled as winner against Begin. The polls were always WRONG. The RIGHT will vote in higher proportion to prevent the seemingly unavoidable unthinkable outcome. I’m sure the CIA, US State Dept., Soros and friends and the usual suspects, certain business interests, The EU for one, Russia, China, need I go on; are thinking of creative ways to help their “allies” on the Israeli LEFT. This is just the opening round. They need Netanyahu OUT, like they needed JFK OUT. Can you imagine the value of the contracts to build a Palestinian State?
This is war.
Why oh why is the Labor party polling as well as they do? For starters, read the fine print in the poll analysis, which shows that that voters most concerned about the security of the Jewish state and Jewish nation prefer Netanyahu, while voters most concerned about the economy of the Jewish state prefer Herzog.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
@ Ted Belman:
Usually incumbents after a long term generate an increase in those disatisfied who move further left or right. this helps untried new brands. Also, I understand there has been dissatisfaction with the distribution of economic gains, housing, etc.
I have no idea where from those polls get their data. Apparently in the North people is not distributed that way. Our cumulative poll remain very much as it was for three weeks now. Except that Lieberman is certainly loosing ground.
Sorry. I do not buy the polls published.
Why is Labour/Livni polling so well. What are they offering that attracts the voters.