David Nussbaum: China shot itself in both feet, transforming a longstanding “potential Hormuz crisis” into a into a realized “kinetic Hormuz crisis.” Why? Iran was not keen to block the Straight of Hormuz (SoH) as most of their income arrives from oil & LNG that leaves through the SoH. There is a clear sequence that lead to Iran’s closure last week.
1. Despite the ongoing war with the U.S. and Israel, Israel scrupulously avoided attacking Iranian resources and processing facilities, because their war is not against the Iranian People, but against the extremist, theocratic, totalitarian and illegitimate Ayatollah Shia Regime. This restraint held despite numerous Iranian ICBMs fired at Israel, overwhelmingly intercepted by Israel’s missile defense capabilities.
2. In late March, China supplied Iran with 20 large cargo aircraft, filled with advanced, military equipment including antiaircraft batteries and MIRV ICBMs. These represent far greater dangers because even if a missile is intercepted prior to reaching its target, it can still hit 5 or more precise sites in the vicinity by launching the multi-entry 13:36 rockets, .making it much more difficult to intercept.
3. In the two days prior to Israel demolishing the Iranian LNG processing center, a number of the individual MIRVs hit residential buildings in Tel Aviv, Israel’s largest city, causing significant casualties.
4. Israel struck the Iranian LGN activity as a warning to desist from attacking its civilian centers with MIRVs.
China thought it could continue to utilize Iran as a proxy in the sense that it would face no consequences if it franchised its violence to another party, the way Iran had successfully buffaloed the U.N. when it utilized Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthies, Islamic Jihad, etc., when it attacked Israel through these terror franchises. Foot 1.
5. The Islamic Republic has been run by Shia fanatics who believe they will bring about the 12th Imam by plunging the world into a Global conflagration. Death on this world is not a deterrent for them because life in the after-world is an eternal experience of intense pleasure. Consequently, “real-world consequences” do not exist as a deterrent fir them. And China, being an atheist country, is only a convenient source of money and technology until they no longer need these Infidels.
Foot Two.
6. In response to the Israeli message, the “Second String” Iranian decision-makers attacked 12 regional oil & LGN producing Sunni Muslim States, including Qatar and Saudi Arabia, two of their closest allies, at least in terms of not criticizing the Ayatollah Regime prior to last week. They finally understand that tolerance of an evil regime, especially an evil irrational regime, and especially an evil, irrational, nuclear regime, is not a viable choice.
It remains to be seen whether they will do anything of kinetic import, or simply hold talks until the Ayatollahs’ fall is complete, and seek to benefit from the unrequited American and Israeli actions.
China…this suggests that they brought it on themselves, backing the unstable and evil side.
SInce from a mental state, Iran is still in the dark ages, it’s time to let the supporters of the Thoecrazy enjoy the full dark ages experience.