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Alex Grinberg, an expert on Iran and a former IDF Military Intelligence researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS), specializing in regional security and Iranian studies, was recently interviewed on the TOV Channel, and the conversation is revealing on a number of issues. He holds degrees in Middle Eastern and Islamic studies and is currently a doctoral student in Iranian history. the wake of Donald Trump’s address to the United Nations General Assembly in which he floated the possibility of wiping out the Islamic Republic, analyst Alex Grinberg notes that Tehran’s leadership is far from unified, as top-down command structure which people might often conclude to be the case.
Describing it as a tangled network of competing factions, Grinberg highlights the significance of the constant state of disarray which comes from Iranian rivals vying for influence while simultaneously responding to external pressures. Even as Iranian officials employ aggressive rhetoric to mask the inherent consequences of this disarray, and also as it continues to carry out sporadic missile launches, the loss of the Ali al-Tahr ridge Hezbollah command structure in Lebanon, which was a key node in the Iranian regional defense network, has carried with it a significant blow to its sense of security and, as a consequence, a fierce internal struggle over how to deal with this crisis is currently unfolding.
Also, Grinberg explains that the deployment of additional U.S. aerial refueling tankers to Israel is being read by Tehran as a signal of an imminent sustained air operations rather than as a symbolic gesture. Unlike carrier strike groups, which can be staged as a show of force, the forward deployment of refueling aircraft to the region would seem to only be a reasonable response when they are actually intended to be used in coordination and support of anticipated airborne strike packages. Simultaneously, Grinberg notes that despite the air-defense drills and heightened alert status in Tehran, the regime has no realistic basis on which to effect any form of capitulation to American demands. Its political structure is too ideologically rigid and too dependent on projecting strength; any visible retreat or acceptance of Western terms would be interpreted both domestically and across the Arab world as the final collapse of its deterrence credibility, potentially triggering the fall of the regime.
Grinberg also pushes back on the existence of Iranian martyrs. Instead, he notes that there is no documented history of Iranians volunteering for martyrdom as is common enough among the likes of Hezbollah and Hamas. Instead, the regime has historically leaned on these Arab groups to conduct suicidal operations, while the Iranian leadership pursues policies supportive of self-preservation and political calculation.
Grinberg additionally remarks on the distinctions which exist between Iranian affiliates such as the Houthis in Yemen as compared to that of Hezbollah. Rather than performing as a selfless extension of Tehran’s leadership as has been the practice of Hezbollah over the years, the Houthis have persistently functioned as an independent actor pursuing its own agenda while receiving modest financial support and advanced weaponry systems from Tehran, such as drones and anti-ship missiles. Yet, despite this observation, the Houthis’ once-feared naval missile capabilities have been significantly degraded following attacks in the Red Sea on Iranian intelligence and surveillance vessels operating there, thus cutting off the real-time targeting data on which Houthi missile targeting systems have been dependent. [Notably, the new strategic positions which the Houthis have recently seized have nonetheless provided the Houthis with the ability to target in close range using anti-tank missiles using visual siting.]
In addition to all of this, Grinberg places significant emphasis on the Houthis having signaled to Washington that they have no appetite for any further direct confrontations with US forces, and he likewise highlights the failure of the Saudi-Pakistan-Turkey security partnership to have thus far delivered a counterbalance to the Houthi threat on behalf of the Saudis.
See full interview below [English Dubbed version can be found under Setting –> Audio Track –> English]
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