Peloni: An important look at the nuanced perspectives on why the Americans have it all wrong and are being misled. Highly recommended reading.
Arlene Kushner | February 10, 2026
Crystal Ball. Image via Unsplash
Lunacy seems a fitting term to describe the current status of the face-off between the US and Iran. The challenge for us here in Israel is to do our best to understand what is going on and what we are likely to expect moving forward. This is no small feat: it is, in fact, an undertaking of the first order.
My crystal ball is not working and so I do not have clarity as to how this will play out. What makes it far more difficult is that the scenario changes with mind-spinning rapidity.
What I will do here is outline the major factors at play and share my take – and the take of others with considerable expertise – regarding current problems and what would be the most desirable outcome.
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We must remind ourselves that nothing is written in stone and that the situation – which has not been stable – might well morph into something different from what we expect. The bottom line is that we have no certainty as to President Trump’s true intentions: Does he want to create an image of peace via crafting of a “deal” that would bring him international plaudits? Or does he want to bring true peace to our region even as he understands the task would be heavy? He likes to keep people guessing.
I confess to being fascinated by the vast diversity of opinion with regard to Trump’s true nature. There are those who are totally turned off by his pomposity; his egotistical stance, which is sometimes identified as narcissism (as a psychiatric diagnosis, very problematic); his excessively strong hand as he wields power.
Others say that he can be trusted, and that he is doing a great deal that is good. And, indeed, he is doing good things. We will see, we are told, that in the end he will come through for Israel. Watch what he does, not what he says, we are advised.
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I have certainly adopted a “show-me, don’t-tell-me” attitude. While I have not totally written off the possibility that he might come through, there is a great deal that makes me deeply uneasy.
There is, first of all, a failure on the part of Trump and his top advisors to understand the mentality of the Iranians – a mentality that Netanyahu clearly does understand. Trump and his close associates are naïve transactionalists; they believe that the Iranians can be rationally convinced to make a deal that works in their favor one way or another. But this is simply not the case.
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And here I turn to Dr. Eric R. Mandel, Director of the Middle East Political Information Network, MEPIN (emphasis added):
“As the US once again enters negotiations with Iran, Americans must confront how profoundly we have misread the Middle East and the motivations of both our adversaries and our partners.
“These misperceptions shape US policy, diplomacy, and security outcomes, not only for America but for its most reliable regional ally, Israel…
“To understand the region, we must accept a basic truth: the Middle East does not operate according to Western assumptions about alliances, institutions, or time. From 6,000 miles away, many relationships appear incoherent or even contradictory. In reality, they follow a different logic, one shaped by history, religion, tribal identity, and rivalries that long predate modern nation-states.
“Washington consistently overestimates the power of formal agreements and underestimates the weight of identity, grievance, and long memory. Americans prize written deals and immediate outcomes; Middle Eastern actors think in terms of generations. We measure success by signatures; they measure it by survival…
“In this region, alliances are rarely built on trust or shared values. They are built on shared threats and shared objectives, often temporary ones. Israel understands this reality intuitively; Washington too often does not.
“For American policymakers, the lesson is simple but difficult: do not take statements in this region at face value. Flattery, symbolism, and public gestures often conceal very different private calculations. Interests may align temporarily; values rarely do.
“Washington must learn to think on a Middle Eastern clock, not an American one. Strategic patience matters more than speed. Deterrence and perception matter more than signatures on paper.
“This is especially true with Iran. The Islamic Republic negotiates from a tradition shaped by centuries of Persian statecraft, where deception and delay are tools of power, not breaches of trust…
“If America remains strong and clear-eyed, it will retain influence and reinforce Israel’s deterrence. If it appears desperate for deals and photo opportunities, that is all it will get.”
Dr. Eric R. Mandel, Director of the Middle East Political Information Network, MEPIN. Screengrab via Youtube
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Daniel Greenfield – investigative journalist and CEO at the David Horowitz Freedom Center – has a different frame of reference. While Mandel looks at Middle East culture, Greenfield is focused specifically on Jihad mentality (emphasis added):
“Iran wants nuclear weapons because of its religious belief in Jihad. It’s not going to give up that belief for money. And money is the only thing we have to offer it in the form of dropping sanctions. That puts us right back to the same place where Obama’s Iran Deal negotiations were.
“…even if the Iranians believed we would [i.e., believed Trump would go for a full regime change], it still wouldn’t change anything. Their government is a theocracy founded on an Islamic revolution that was going to be as uncompromising as possible. Asking it to give up its nuclear weapons is asking it to give up its religious mission of Jihad.
https://www.frontpagemag.com/iran-is-not-going-to-give-up-its-nuclear-weapons-program/
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And there is more that makes me uncomfortable. Trump envoy Steve Witkoff has ties to Qatar. As does his sidekick Jared Kushner. Qatar: the nation that promotes the Muslim Brotherhood internationally and pretends to be a moderate ally of the US at the same time. What influence will Qatar have on the negotiating process?
Greenfield continues thus: “The negotiators trying to work out a new Iran Deal are already…trying to find some ‘middle ground’…there is an attempt to redefine what ‘nuclear’ is…
“Qatar…will be working hard to craft a ‘compromise’ that Witkoff or some other useful idiot can present for Iran Deal 2.0.
“And we can keep going down that dead end or recognize that any deal Iran will agree to will be a deal that it believes will allow it to develop nukes.
“There’s no sense in us signing on to such a deal.”
There is one thing I would have phrased differently: It would not be a matter of a deal that Iran believes allows it to develop nukes, but rather a deal that Iran believes gives it the latitude to do so under the table.
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I look around me here in the Middle East, and consider the dangers presented by the Iranian regime.
I have repeatedly referred to Hamas as consummately evil, but Iran is the father-head of this evil. They offered proof-positive of this with the recent massacre of protestors by the tens of thousands. The security forces aimed their guns at the faces of people in the street, including youngsters. Wounded protestors were torn from their hospital beds and murdered. Families were told they could not retrieve the bodies of their murdered relatives without paying a fee.
Iran wants to destroy Israel totally. This we understand. But the US – which is the “great satan,” while Israel is the “little satan” – is also in its crosshairs.
Iran’s major proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, are supported and protected by this totalitarian Jihadist regime, and their reach is far greater than most people realize. Hezbollah in particular has a foothold in the Western hemisphere, with sleeper cells in a number of locales. The fierce Badr Organization (pictured), which was trained by the IRGC, has a presence in Iraq. And there is yet more: The Al Ashtar Brigades, for example, funded, trained, and armed by the IRGC, is located in Bahrain and is believed to be part of the Iranian effort to overthrow the Bahraini monarchy .
https://www.ajc.org/news/hezbollah-hamas-and-more-irans-terror-network-around-the-globe
When you understand the depth and breadth of this malign Iranian influence, it takes the breath away. And it helps you to realize precisely how different a world without this Iranian regime might be.
Badr Organization in combat near Tal Afar. Photo by Fars Media Corporation, CC BY 4.0, Wikipedia
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When the US hit Iran this past June, Iranian nuclear sites/uranium stockpiles were severely compromised but not totally taken out, as Trump had claimed. During that war, Israel, in addition to attacks on nuclear sites, hit ballistic missiles and launch sites – and hit hard.
Since June, Iran has been laboring furiously to rebuild its missile strength, for missiles provide the backbone of its military capability. The nuclear component is for the future. (Heaven forbid.)
See https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hkoqgwpwwe#autoplay – “Producing hundreds per month in underground cities: inside Iran’s ballistic missile project”
Israel is the regime’s primary target, but other nations in the Mid-East and beyond are within range of Iranian missiles, including parts of Europe. While it is not yet a reality, Iran has been working on a ballistic missile that would travel as far as the US.
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I believe that a military attack on Iran, by the US, with Israel possibly joining, is the most appropriate way – the only realistic way – to deal with the multiple threats of this regime.
And here I cite David Weinberg – a senior fellow at Misgav: The Institute for National Security & Zionist Strategy – who wrote just days ago (emphasis added) that “a significant US strike on Iran is critical to resetting the regional and international balance of power.
“A crushing military blow on Iran is necessary to create a Middle East and a broader world where Washington and its friends are far stronger, and its enemies far weaker, than ever before. Indeed, that is what Trump’s second term as president is all about…
“If Trump’s bluster against Iran, and his promises of “help on its way” to the Iranian people, occasion just another Obama-style soft deal that kicks the Iranian nuclear can down the road – then Trump’s presidency is finished. He will never be the ‘transformational’ president with ‘historic’ achievements in international affairs that he so explicitly wants to be.
“US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee said it colorfully this week. In his trademark forthright and folksy style, Huckabee noted that ‘many plates of poison’ are coming from Iran, and that it is best to ‘burn the kitchen down’ than simply ‘changing the menu.’
“Many plates of poison – Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, the Houthis – are being served all out of the same kitchen, Tehran,” Huckabee remarked… “You can change the menu; (but it is) better to burn the kitchen down and not let them serve those plates anymore“…
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Citing analyst Nadim Koteich, Weinberg writes that “the ayatollahs ‘preside over a Byzantine structure where reform is not a lifeboat, but a torpedo. They are running a regime based on a theology of absolute power, on metaphysical claims to divine legitimacy.’
“Ayatollah Khamenei sees himself as guardian of a holy revolutionary state whose preservation supersedes even the fundamental pillars of Islam. ‘By descending from the sacred to the negotiable, Khamenei would effectively abolish the theological basis of his own office.’ As a result, he cannot and will not ‘discard theology for the hard metrics of realpolitik.’
“Therefore, Iran is a brittle system that has mistaken rigidity for strength. ‘When Khamenei says that American demands are impossible, we should believe him. The regime he has spent a lifetime fortifying is designed to break, not to bend.’
“I say: Time to break Iran, to burn down its kitchen and then manage the consequences of a fracture that is now historically inevitable.”
https://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/burn-the-kitchen-down/
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There was a brief interval of time – a window of maximum opportunity – when there was reason to believe Trump had decided to hit Iran. That was when he told the protestors to fight in the streets because help was coming.
Help never came. He changed his mind, grievously betraying his promise to the people of Iran. He may have had reasons that were legitimate or seemed to him to be so at that time. I discussed these reasons in an earlier post. But I mention here the fact that the so-called negotiators, Egypt, Turkey, Qatar, apparently encouraged Trump not to rush, but to first “hear what Iran had to say”. That these Jihad-supporting nations had this influence on the president is worrisome – an unsettling sign as to what Trump may ultimately decide. Their encouragement may have given him the latitude to change direction: he favors negotiations and when he fights prefers battles that are over quickly. He still threatens to attack if Iran is not responsive, but who knows what this means.
At any rate, we saw a rapid shift from talk of attack to talk of negotiations. What?
Our leaders did what they could, conveying strong, forthright messages as to where the dangers lie. This was true with regard to Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, who met with US brass in Washington, and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, who met here in Jerusalem with Steve Witkoff.
But Trump proceeded to pursue the negotiation path. What increased the unease was the fact that the Iranians seemed to be calling the shots. They insisted on a change of venue, to Oman, and US leaders acceded to the demand. Iran’s leaders made it clear that only the nuclear issue would be on the table. They insisted on their right to continue to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes, maintaining that this was not negotiable.
Hey! We’ve done that already with the Obama deal: this is a dead end. They lie, they cheat.
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A first indirect meeting was held on Friday, when Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and US Central Command Commander Adm. Brad Cooper met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and other Iranian senior officials. After this, the president declared that it had been a very good meeting. Empty words. It was purely a procedural meeting to discuss process, not content.
Apparently there will be a follow-up meeting, although there is no indication yet as to where or when. I am guessing it will not happen quickly, because Iran prefers to stall.
The US has declared that for this meeting Araghchi is expected to come with concessions “with meaningful substance.”
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-886010
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Prime Minister Netanyahu is sufficiently alarmed by this state of affairs that he is now headed to Washington for a Wednesday meeting with President Trump. We’ve heard a good deal recently about the close cooperation between Israel and the US. Now we shall see what it comes to.
PM Netanyahu speaks in the Knesset. Photo by Itzhak Harari / Knesset Archives, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikipedia
Israel has made it clear that if Iran passes a red line on the production of ballistic missiles – which would represent an existential threat – we will act alone if necessary.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-885948
Iran has been doing a good deal of saber-rattling, but the assessment in most quarters is that it is weak and truly frightened of attack: thus eager for the out of negotiations.
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An attack remains, in my opinion, the preferable way to proceed. But if Trump is going to go the route of negotiations, it would be imperative that any deal address all of the bases of concern: nuclear weapons, ballistic missile production, assistance to proxies and treatment of the civilian population. Yet the odds are just about nil that Iran will agree to discuss all of these issues.
I want to close, then, by making a significant point. It is not simply that a negotiated deal purely on the issue of Iranian development of nuclear weapons would be a total waste of time because Iran would proceed to cheat.
It is far worse than that: a deal of any sort provides Iran with a certain international legitimacy and acts to block a subsequent US military attack. How does Trump attack after signing a deal with Iran? Iran would continue on its present path, supporting proxies and building its arsenal of ballistic missiles, and acting violently against protestors, but would proceed with a certain diplomatic shield.
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Please, pray for all of Am Yisrael: for the wisdom and courage of our leaders and the strength of our IDF and all of our people. Pray as well for the leaders of the U.S., that they will have the courage and wisdom to act to bring true peace to our region.
©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
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