By Andrea Widburg | Am Thinker | May 24, 2025
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Many pro-Israel people I know, both Jewish and non-Jewish, are deeply worried about Trump’s current Middle East positions. He’s marginalizing Israel in negotiations with Saudi Arabia, accepting on the government’s behalf a luxury plane from double-dealing Qatar, and handing money to the goons in Syria. At the same time, he’s seemingly freezing out Israel, to the great consternation of Israel and its supporters.
So, what gives? Having read Charles Lipson’s superb analysis of the problems in dealing with an almost nuclear Iran, and how Biden created this monster, I suspect that “what gives” may be Trump trying an out-of-the-box approach to isolating Iran long enough for his economic policies and sanctions to bankrupt the mullahs.
Lipson’s essay, which is behind a paywall but to which you can get one-time access, asks “What to do about Iran?” I urge you to read it, but the ten-cent summary is as follows:
- Iran desperately wants to have nuclear weapons, and is dedicating itself to obtaining them.
- Iran routinely cheats on agreements.
- If Iran goes nuclear, it will annihilate Israel and pose an existential threat to Europe.
- Israel knows that, if Iran goes nuclear, it will bomb Israel.
- Israel also knows that if it unilaterally attacks Iran, it will strain relations with America and spark a war between Israel and Iran.
- Israel lacks the military capacity to deliver bunker-buster bombs. Only the U.S. can do that.
- Trump knows that if the U.S. allies with Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, it may detonate a huge war that violates Trump’s promises (and firm goal) of keeping America out of wars, while activating every Iranian terrorist sleeper cell at home and abroad.
Lipson also points out that none of this would have happened were it not for Biden (or, more accurately, his handlers). During his four years in office, Trump had almost brought the mullahs to their knees financially. Biden put Iran back in the money by failing to enforce the sanctions.
Upon returning to office, Trump immediately reinstated sanctions, but these are measures that take time to take effect. He has also enacted energy policies that have led to a decline in the price of oil. This has been wonderful domestically because it offsets rising prices from his tariff initiatives, but it also undercuts the mullahs’ chief source of financing.
As before, given enough time, Trump will bankrupt the mullahs. The problem is that Trump doesn’t have time. It’ll take years to affect the mullahs’ finances, while the mullahs are weeks away from building the bomb.
So, what is Trump to do?
It’s entirely possible that Trump is doing everything he can to isolate the mullahs within the Middle East itself. Qatar has always been Iran-friendly, but Trump will make it America-friendly.
Saudi Arabia fears Iran, but Hamas’s deliberate use of the October 7 attack to halt normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia means that it’s at risk of falling into Iran’s camp. Trump needs to bring Saudi Arabia—whose ruler Biden grossly insulted—back into the American fold, even if that means temporarily ditching normalization with Israel.
And finally, Syria has long been an Iranian satellite. Trump is trying to make it an American satellite.
Looked at from this perspective, Trump isn’t trying to destroy Israel. He’s hoping to destroy Israel’s most serious existential enemy by depriving Iran of regional allies long enough for his sanctions against Iran, combined with low oil prices, to destroy the mullahs. Indeed, if these countries fall into the American camp, it makes it easier for Trump and/or Israel to destroy Iran’s facilities on Kharg Island, through it processes and exports almost all of its crude oil.
If attaining this geopolitical realignment in the Middle East means cold-shouldering Israel in the short term…well, Trump will do what he’s got to do.
In this existential card game, Trump (thanks to Biden) comes in with the world’s worst hand. But typically for Trump, he is doing what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says he does best: Creating leverage where none existed before.
Alternatively, if my interpretation is wrong, Trump’s cold shoulder to Israel is deeply troubling. It would mean that Trump is abandoning a long-time ally to annihilation, and using his domestic war against antisemitism as cover. Yes, it would be an “American First” policy, but it would also be profoundly morally evil. So, I really hope I’m correct in how I’m reading this situation.
@ Madeline
How has Ukraine strived towards being democratic? Since US involvement they overthrew a legitimate govt, restricted the language rights of all minorities, shuttered an entire religion, imprisoned the opposition, and cancelled elections. Is this what striving democracies do?
This is what J. E Dyer discussed in her article which I mentioned in a comment earlier, “Trumpschlacht Debuts with Vivid Energy.”
https://theoptimisticconservative.wordpress.com/2025/05/18/trumpschlacht-debuts-with-vivid-energy/
We cannot know for sure what Trump has in mind. Professor Gil-White sees him as no different from any other President who will empower Iran at Israel’s expense based upon what he did or did not do in his first presidency, and furthermore he states that Trump has gaslit the MAGA movement into thinking he is pro-Israel.
On the other hand there are those individuals who have studied geopolitics for a living, who see Trump building a “Ring of Fire” around Iran, in place of the now defunct “ring of fire” around Israel.
They point out that even though Trump’s financial moves will take time to accomplish the bankrupting of the Iranian government, the Iranian government has never been as weak as they are now. They have lost their primary line of defense (Hezbollah). They threw away Hamas to be used to stop the normalization efforts between Saudi Arabia and Israel and Hamas is now on the ropes. The Houthis are left, but Israel is likely to put them out of business in time. Iran no longer can get weapons through Syria to Hezbollah. That means billions of dollars that Iran put in to prop up Bashar Assad are down the toilet. The Israelis knocked out the Iranian air defenses. And Trump is working to pull Qatar, UAE, and Saudi Arabia closer to the US and thus Israel and further away from Iran. Trump is making it profitable for these countries to work with America at the expense of Iran, which will ultimately decrease the likelihood of their trying to support Iran. In addition, this would account for some of the statements Trump has made about Erdogan, implying he and Erdogan are good friends. Now it is true many of these countries didn’t get along so well with Iran even before Trump’s efforts: Saudi Arabia and Iran are enemies. The current Syrian “government” also is anti-Iranian and has been, but the effort Trump made to pull that government into alignment with the US could pay off to Israel’s benefit. Similarly if Turkey finds working with the US better than working with Iran, it will be better for Israel too.
If Trump turns out to be just as Professor Gil-White says, a man who betrayed not only Israel but all of MAGA, that will be a sad outcome we will have to ultimately accept.
Since we really don’t know what is in Trump’s mind on these issues, we will have to wait and find out. Trust but verify.
Two words – glass parkinglot.
It troubles me that Trump supporters like Andea Widburg (and me) are troubled by his recent mideast moves. There is reason to be troubled. Character does count. As a New Yorker, I’ve heard from people who worked with Trump who say he stiffed his staff. And Trump is semi abandoning the US former allie, Ukraine, by favoring Russia so far. I know this site does not support Ukraine, but it has been part of US foreign policy to support an underdog who strives to be democratic.
At any rate, I am saying that it is good to see Trump looked at skeptically by his supporters.