Is the Arab Spring a good or bad thing for Israel?

By Ted Belman

A month ago, PEW Global did a poll in Egypt and found

“only 36 percent of Egyptians are in favor of maintaining the treaty, compared with 54 percent who would like to see it scrapped.”

“The conservative Islamist Muslim Brotherhood and the largely secular April 6 movement – two groups closely involved in the uprising, had the highest approval ratings in society, with over 70 percent seeing them in a very or somewhat favorable light.

“People also overwhelmingly approved of the army, which forced out Mubarak and is currently in the control of the country. ”

Daniel Pipes writes on the post-Mubarak Egypt and says that Mubarak is gone but the army is still in control.

“The military is not secular. From the furthest origins of the Free Officers in the 1930s to the recent reaffirmation of Sharia (Islamic law) as “the principal source of legislation,” the Egyptian military leadership consistently has displayed an Islamist orientation. More specifically, the Free Officers emerged out of the military wing of the Muslim Brotherhood and through the decades has been in competition with the civilian wing. As analyst Cynthia Farahat writes in the Middle East Quarterly, their rivalry “should be understood not as a struggle between an autocratic, secular dictatorship and a would-be Islamist one but a struggle between two ideologically similar, if not identical, rival groups, hailing from the same source.”

“The Muslim Brotherhood is not a powerhouse. The organization suffers from major problems. First, hot-headed and violent Islamists despise it. Al-Qaeda recently blasted it for taking part in elections and ridiculed it for being on the path to becoming “secular and falsely affiliated with Islam.” Second, the brotherhood is weak on the ground. Hesham Kassem of the Egyptian Organization for Human Rights notes that its membership does not exceed 100,000 people, which, in a country of 80 million, means it “is not really a grass roots movement,” but a coddled institution benefiting from being uniquely tolerated. Genuine political competition should diminish its appeal.”

It seems to me that Israel should state clearly that if the treaty is cancelled, she will take back the Sinai.

On Apr 24rth I reported that “a new poll by the International Peace Institute provides some hope. It shows that is it the secular Wafd Party, not the Muslim Brotherhood, that has the most support in Egypt.”

Just today, Yishai Fleisher brought to my attention his article in YNET in which he says Israel should wlcome the overthrow of the dictators. Its worth a read.

What do you think?