Israel is going to face a tough choice if and when ISIS tries to take over Jordan. And the countdown has begun.
Dr. Mordechai Kedar, INN
Ma’an is a Bedouin village in the southern part of Jordan that has always been a headache for the country’s rulers. The population is strongly fundamentalist and includes a significant number of Salafists.
Street demonstrations that ended violently have been held there in the past, once brought on by food prices, once by the price of fuel, and once because the monarchy did not treat village leaders with enough respect. In time, Ma’an became Jordan’s baromemter, an indicator of underlying currents of opinion in the country.
On the 2th of June, in the middle of a Friday afternoon, Ma’an was the scene of a pro-ISIL (“The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant”, known as ISIS, but more accurately translated ISIL) demonstration where black flags waved and the signs had an unmistakable message (my additions in parentheses, M.K.).
“Today is Support an Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham Day”, “Ma’an is Jordan’s Fallujah”, “We support an Islamic State”, “We congratulate the Islamic people for the conquests of Omar (Be Akhattab, the second Caliph, conqueror of al-Sham) that Allah chose to form an Islamic state in Iraq and al-Sham” were some of them.
Loud and hysterical shouts of “Allah akbar”, “To Jihad”, “there is none save Allah and the Shiites are his foes”, “He who fights for Jihad is loved by Allah”, “The Sunnis are Allah’s beloved”, “Allah is our god and not theirs (the Shiites’)”, “The Shiite god is Satan”, “Death is better than humiliation”, “With blood and spirit will we redeem you, Islam”, “Jihad is our way”, “Jihad state forever”, “O Shiite rulers, we are coming for you”, were heard at the demonstration and to serve as proof of its serious intentions, shots were fired in the air.
The most important aspect of the protest was that almost all those present did not hide their faces, meaning that they have no fear of the Jordanian government, its police or its secret service. The demonstrators were well aware that they were being photographed by various people and that the photos could be used to identify and apprehend them and they didn’t care. And when there fear of the state is no more, anything can happen.
ISIL has never concealed its intentions regarding Jordan, created, as were Iraq and Syria, by European colonialism, and therefore deserving to be eliminated. The name of the organization expresses is goals, because “al-Sham” is the Levant, and that area includes Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Israel.
In order to make its plans for Jordan obvious, the organization expanded its control in Iraq westward, up to the border between Iraq and Jordan, also conquering the border town of Turayvil. Its successes in Iraq and Syria awaken the “Jihadist adrenaline” in the marginal populations of Jordan and the demonstration in Ma’an expresses what is well-known: ISIS success draws the masses, especially those on the fringes of society, those who want to belong to something successful at last. And if this successful thing brings an end to a suppressive regime, it is an even more worthy group to join.
Iraq and Syria are disintegrating. You will have a Druze state in the Jebel Hauran, an Alawite state in the Syrian coastal mountains, a Sunni Arab state from Damascus to the very reaches of Baghdad. A Sunni Kurd state from northern Syria to the northwest third of Iraq and a Shiite Arab state dominating southern Iraq. Several smaller countries in place of present day Syria and Iraq and none of them will constitute a serious threat to Israel. Its quite possible even Lebanon will shatter among sectarian lines in the foreseeable future. Such a development will leave Israel’s enemies weak, divided and at each other’s throats for decades to come.
So, what’s the outcome for Israel? A weakened Hezbollah, and a relatively benign group of insurgents in the Golan instead of Assad’s army? A Druze buffer zone? Are there enough Druze in the Golan to be a buffer? So, ISIS does not have designs on Jordan and Saudi Arabia, but dominance over large parts of Syria, Lebanon and Iraq, with a weakened Shiite government confined to Baghdad and southern Iraq? If I were Israel, at some point I would fear a militant ISIS directly on its borders. I’m not sure where all this analysis is going, and I wonder if you give the boy wonder president too much credit. After all, he’s too busy golfing or eating crackers and fudge in bed.
yamit82 Said:
last novembers news, part of the distancing plan . I think all the players know the truth but the deception is mainly to fool the electorate of the US and EU, presenting a new paradigm where instead of convincing congress and the electorate we have congress and the electorate demanding the protection of civilians from the jihadis.yamit82 Said:
DUH????? that’s because THEY planned the whole thing and knew already!
one should note that the ISIS attacks appear well thought out strategically, they are linking up with the saudi Jordanian borders to take the whole wes Iraq and allow open access to ISIS across those borders.
I expect only token attacks on saudi or Jordan purely to maintain the illusion that they are under attack from (LOL) ISIS.
yamit82 Said:
where’s the beef? Old news, Kuwait is always maintaining relations with Iran
from the same article”
DUH????? Saudi is knee deep is supplying arms, jihadis and training to isis and Iran of course knows. Now that there is a direct link of saudi to ISIS things can flow freely.
Thank goodness Obama is on top of all of this. You think he might be eating crackers or smoking in bed, but no, he’s right on top of things.
yamit82 Said:
its part of a 62 billion package:
A stroke of genius: the “peace” pres has got the congress begging him to go to war exactly as he wanted to do in the first place with some window dressing.
yamit82 Said:
I have always said that even with understandings there can be change especially if the GCC come to a deal with Iran. right now that does not appear to be happening as their war is hotting up.
yamit82 Said:
assad is a proxy of Iran and although it was quieter I do not see him refusing to heat up the situation for Israel when Iran calls. so far the Jihadis assembled in syria but no real attacks on israel. Hezbullah on the border is to be feared but I bet they are more exposed on the syrian border in larger masses than in lebanon plus keeping their forces divided and being able to cut off supplies must be good. One must always compare to what was and Assad is a strong central gov with resources up until now.
It appears so far that the Jihadis are focused on the shias and according to GOI there has been cooperation with the GCC. It is definitely my beleif that the Jihadis are controlled by the GCC.
yamit82 Said:
my understanding is that they are the best of the jihadis and involve FSA trained in Jordan with cooperation between Jordan and Israel on a possible buffer zone. Those Jihadis have even begged for Israel to come in with them offering the golan. There is always the possibility that a release of claim to the Golan is also in the cards or that the fragmented state with Assad up north and jihadis or druze militia on the border that assad is too far to make any claims. It still seems much better to me than what it was. all the enemies are weaker and spreading thin.
yamit82 Said:
You and I agreed back in the days of Max and Felix that the enemies fighting each other is better than the status quo. One cannot tell before hand which winner is a better outcome. That depends on factors such as what may have been agreed under the table also. I think it is best that there is no strong central gov in any of the neighbors that can muster a large army , command large resources or WMD weapons.
You may remember that I said many months ago that there was a plan to weaken Hezbullah and syria as proxies for Iran. at that time I believe that Israel was cautiously involved with a wait and see attitude(based on the results achieved by the GCC)and this is what was behind the gaza events whereby Israel targeted Iranian links to gaza which was also of benefit to the GCC. I believe this is also why Israel entered into the talks to allow the GCC/US to carry out their plan to weaken Irans proxies which would be good for Israel even if it went no further. I believe that as a result of Benghazi the US had to distance itself from terrorists and especially those in syria. this may have put pressure on Israel to do more to help the GCC weaken the proxies and I believe that Israels forays against weapons transfer were partly along those lines but that the Obama wanted more. when the US did not directly enter the war because of benghazi I believe the current plan of Isis was a plan B whereby an anonymous plausible deniability proxy was set up to do the work that ISIS has now done. from that time all the present and future sponsors of the Jihadis began to distance themselves from Jihadis AND each other including the US, Saudi,and JOrdan where they were training. the current scenario whereby Saudi, US Jordan all appear to be against the ISIS in my view is a complete fake and almost absurd as right now the sauds are sending masses of arms to ISIS. The scenario of israeli having some involvement with the GCC over tha past couple of years has been overtly confirmed by Liberman and BB. This is no longer a speculation. I believe the commitment of the GCC to weaken the proxies and extend their hegemony originally included the possibility of Israel being involved and even possibly attacking Iran with under the table support from US and GCC. However, currently the western and russian sides are negotiating over the breakup and structure of syria and Iraq plus the Iran nuclear deal. I think that BB is intimating, in your meet the press link, that the major powers may cut a deal over syria and Iraq that gives western interests their oil needs but that they might give way on Iran. I believe the alliances are basically still the same but each player acts cautiously according to their own specific interests and can screw the others in the alliance.
The Iraq Cash Cow: Part I
As Ralph Lewis – senior consultant for Chevron Texaco – once stated, “The trick in the Middle East is to keep it stirred up.”
Israel Offers ‘Moderate’ Arab Nations Help Against ISIS
Foreign Minister Liberman tells Secretary Kerry Israel can give effective and reliable assistance’ to Arab states against Islamists.
@ bernard ross:
Saudis ‘Lied To’ by US, Pursue Independent Policy
Report: US, UK Knew About ISIS Takeover Months in Advance
Kurdish authorities tell news outlet that they passed along intelligence about the ISIS plans months ago to US, UK – who then did nothing.
Senior advisor to Saudi royal family says the US ‘deceived’ his country over Iran deal; Saudis to pursue ‘independent’ foreign policies.
bernard ross Said:
This seems to be the Plan and MO for Baghdad and Jordan, they will not immediately attempt to frontally attack either.
PM fears US hatching bad deal with Iran, summons his DC envoy, calls Putin
Netanyahu dispatching top officials to DC to try to prevent accord that would turn Tehran into a threshold nuclear power
Obama seeks $500M to train, arm Syrian rebels
In effort to stem civil war, US president asks Congress to fund equipment for opposition veterans
Shifting Alliances? Iran and Kuwait Sign Historic Agreements
In first visit by Kuwaiti emir to Iran since 1979 Islamic revolution, six agreements signed, including one on security.
bernard ross Said:
Not so. The threat are from the tens of thousands of missiles in Lebanon and Syria, not specifically manpower of fighters. Those missiles whether in the hands of Hezbollah or Al Qeada/ISIL/ISIS/Salafists for Israel poses an equal threat to Israel. On our Golan border with Syria all units of Assads Army have been replaced with the worst of the Jihadis. Only Kunetra is still holding out against the insurgents and they fired RPG’s into Israel this week killing Israeli Arabs. Israel hit back against the Syrian Army drawing accusations from Assad we were aiding the Jihadis against him.
The Golan/Syrian border had been under the Assads’ been our most peaceful quiet border till recently. Assad’s loss of control of that border is not good for Israel.
An interesting hypothetical might be if Israel attacked Iran would blowback be a joint effort of both Sunni and Shis Jihadis against Israel???
@ yamit82:
Interesting, very interesting.
ISIS insurrection serves Israel’s interests
Remarking on the latest ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) incursions into Iraq, Netanyahu expressed the desire of Israel to promote internal strife in Israel’s neighbouring states.
Big military exercises were held in Jordan by US troops called Eager Lion, with the participation of more than 15,000 troops from 18 Arab and other countries.
http://www.nbcnews.com/video/meet-the-press/55476067#55476067
“Fragmenting, weakening and balkanizing the Middle East has been part and parcel of the Zionist impulse from the very beginnings of the Jewish state”.
Israeli strategist Oded Yinon candidly outlined this line of thought in his 1982 paper “A Strategy for Israel in the 1980s.” A strong, unified Iraq is Israel’s primary military concern, Yinon stressed. He went on to advocate the territorial dissection of Iraq into three statelets along ethnic and confessional lines. He promoted much the same scenario for Syria, Egypt, Lebanon, Iran and other Arab/Muslim states surrounding Israel.
Fractured and divided, the Arab/Muslim countries cannot pose any challenge to Israeli dominance,
Yinon = Machiavellian strategy. This does not mean that the goals and agenda of Israel are identical to that of America and her allies or that of the Saudis. Goals and interests, both merge and digress.
they are attacking Irans proxies on 3 fronts to spread their forces thin and to counter any blowback to Israel if Israel attacks. i would first expect there to be an internal destabilization of iran if they do not come to agreement on all fronts soon.
however, if ISIS is the western proxy then much of that future oil source has just landed in western hands. Plus,they will probalby secure the route to the Med through Turkey, sunni syria, sunni lebanon, golan, or Jordan to ?????
If there is an arab peace with israel then the route through Jordan to Israel would be a winner.
this is interesting although I disagree with the slant of the article which appears to seek to disclaim GCC funding of ISIS:
In fact, it is about 2010 that the GCC began its main campaign, just the time the report by RAND cuts off.
I agree with the one comment
not only does this drive of the jihadis to the saudi, jordanian, syrian and turkish borders provide a pretext for bringing forward troops but also provides contiguos borders with the other sunni states after the dismemberment of iraq and immediately for the free and unhindered transport of arms and jihadis from the sponsor states to the front.
the whole thing has been very well worked out, albeit obvious.
I beleive that Kedar is incorrect.
They do not fear the state because they are encouraged, under the table by the state.
What are they doing?
they are inciting agiianst the Shia which is completely 100% in agreement with the GCC/western agenda using the Sunni shia war as a proxy against the Iran proxies.
Why should they hide?
this is superficial,taking the “useful idiot cannon fodder” rants as the guiding force behind events. GCC(whether saudi, qatar, or other) are the driving force behind all the sunni jijhadis. the invention of ISIS is a flase flag that is a stroke of genius. The ISIS rants against Jordan or any other GCC ally is the minimum necessary to maintain the deception.
Anther stroke of genius in that the drive of the jihadis to the Saudi and Jordanian borders provide the pretext and cover for the introduction of the next phase. I doubt whether there will be anything more than token(for journalists) attacks across the Jordan or saudi border.
Kedar almost gets it but misses the goal because he has bought into, or is part of, the false flag narrative. The demonstration in Maan is inciting the Sunni masses against the shia in order to recruit more jihadis to enter the war agianst the shia.
the funding and arming of ISIS is by the GCC. saudi invited Jordan into the GCC. they all need the cover of being under threat from the jihadis they pre distanced themselves from in order to have a pretext to enter the war. egyptian troops are being introduced into saudi and they will be the mainstay army of the expanded GCC monarchies.
Let us remember that the GCC monarchies, especially Saudi are themselves Islamic states who maintain, and know how to manage successfully, the islamic clerical network to issue any fatwa(no matter how absurd and shifting to the opposite at a moments notice)to order their muslim serfs into their agenda. Jordan is also a monarchy that has not as yet, utilized the same islamic structure as the saudis.
This is a false flag smoke and mirrors: the warring parties are the same as at the beginning: the sunnis against the shias or the GCC western alliance against the Iranian/syrian/.hezbullah alliance. This alliance explains clearly the agenda in spite of appearances created to obfuscate it.
The point is ISIS wants to sweep aside the nation state and restore the Islamic Caliphate. Arab regimes are being devoured by the very Islamic terrorist monster they nurtured for decades against Israel. I do not shed a tear for their fate.
And then Hejaz and the Arabian Peninsula. A Caliphate without control over Mecca is meaningless. The question is who will be there first, ISIL or Iran?