The US invaded Iraq in 2003 to remove a dictator and now she is leaving Iraq with nothing to show for it except thousands of American casualties and a trillion dollars in debt. In a years time Iraq will be a worse enemy of the US than it was under Hussein. You would think she would learn. Now she removed two other dictators from Libya and Egypt who were friends of the US relatively, and the new governments will be less friendly. Where will it end? Ted Belman
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis October 23, 2011,
Ten days have gone by since President Barack Obama accused Iran of instigating a foiled plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to Washington last April. Yet neither the US nor Saudi Arabia has done anything about it – even at the UN.
Friday, Oct. 21, Obama reaffirmed that all US soldiers will be brought home from Iraq by the end of the year. Two days later, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pledged in Tajikistan: “To countries in the region, especially Iraq’s neighbors, we want to emphasize that American will stand with our allies and friends, including Iraq, in defense of our common security and interests.”
She spoke as the Obama administration was preparing to pull out of Iraq, leaving in Baghdad a government and national army incapable of defending the country against widening cycles of terror, headed by a prime minister under Tehran’s thumb and more than 30,000 armed members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ terrorist arm, al Qods Brigades, deployed there.
Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki is so completely in thrall to Iran that he was afraid to accede to Washington’s insistent demand for immunity to be extended to at least 5,000 US soldiers remaining in Iraq, although left on his own he would have been inclined to do so.
The eight-year US military presence in Iraq ends therefore leaving Iran sitting pretty on its two key strategic goals:
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1. The exit of American soldiers, whose presence in Iraq since the 2003 invasion was deemed in Tehran a continuous threat to its borders. US military involvement in Afghanistan is seen in the same light.
2. A weak Shiite-led government in place in Baghdad, heavily dependent on Tehran’s will. Torn by strife among Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds, Iraq is in no state to obstruct Iran’s hegemonic plans for the Persian Gulf and Syria.
The Iranian regime’s right hand for achieving those goals was – and is – Al Qods commander Lt. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the man also accused by Washington of masterminding the assassination plot.
Washington is well aware of Soleimani’s capacity for interfering with American interests. Indeed he crows about it.
Last July, US sources leaked a message he posted in 2008 to Gen. David Petraeus, then head of US Central Command and now CIA Director: “General Petraeus, you should know that I, Qassem Suleimani, control the policy for Iran with respect to Iraq, Lebanon, Gaza and Afghanistan. And indeed, the ambassador in Baghdad is a Quds Force member. The individual who’s going to replace him is a Quds Force member.”
He was flaunting his control of Baghdad at American expense.
Since then, he has expanded this control, debkafile’s military sources report, by injecting 30,000 al Qods fighting personnel into Iraq, all trained in guerrilla tactics to the standards of Western and Middle East elite units.
At least half are deployed in Baghdad in the guise of bodyguard units Iraqi government members and political figures have hired from local firms. Most of the Shiite figures in government and parliament are now using al Qods details for protection. This makes the easily vulnerably to manipulation from Tehran.
Today, Al Qods has the run of Baghdad’s Green Zone, the top-security enclave built a cost of billions of American dollars to keep the US embassy and high commands in Iraq and its seat of government safe from terrorist bombs.
After the US military drawdown in just over two months, the 16,000 US embassy staffers remain in the Green Zone, including 5,000 security officers from civilian contractors.
They will stand eyeball to eyeball with a like number of al Qods operatives defending the pro-Iranian Iraqi government. It is on this jarring note that America is about to end its war in Iraq.
Using the scripture to predict the future is an exercise in futility — because it’s written with en eye to all of time taken together as an entity: i.e., Eternity. And all that WE get to see is a flat and finite projection of that. You might as well have tried to devine the meaning of the Oracle at Delphi. . . .
The value of prophecy is not in prognostication so much as in looking backward in retrospect and seeing that it was all Known beforehand; it’s intended to provoke wonderment.
You want to predict the future?
— Invest in a Weegee Board.
Turkey has in its soil 90 B-61 nuclear bombs, Located at their INCIRLIK AFB where there are also about 5700 US airman and techs as well as aircraft. The US operatives are housed in 927 overground lodgings and workshops. A major US military operation.
Recently Gates and the WH occupant continued the pre location under US-NATO control. 40 were originally assigned to the Turkish Air Force. NATO has de qualified the TAF from being nuclear able.
That is a paper protocol that can be easily bypassed.
Turkey is a nuclear able country and therefore one would correctly assume that other countries are prepared to attend to the nuclear devices in there, should Turkey either transfer weapons or attack others.
The base is located 34.4 miles from the Med coast and 3 miles for the City of ADAMA.
While the bombs are said to be de fused, they can be activated in a relatively short notice including by exterior means. Should the 90 bombs be detonated that will create a world wide eccological severe impact but Turkey will not exist thereafter.
IRAN”S Nuclear weapons technology. Certainly they have foreign technology at their disposition and not only from Pakistan, Korea, Russia, China, but also from Germany, France and the Americas.
The first research reactor was given to the Shah by the Eisenhower administration. Still active at the University there.
Yet there is a wide gap between knowing what to do and having the equipments and conditions to do it.
As you mention transistors I believe that Lillienthal, Canada, patented FET technology in the mid 20’s both in Canada and the US. Not much came of it until the Bell Labs in the 40’s worked the bugs out.
I was invited amongst about 100 other people working for Uncle Sam to visit by the USDoD TRINITY site in Alamogordo where the first bomb was detonated. The working conditions faced by the Team would be appalling by todays standards but the got it done.
So will Iran. At an estimated technology level better than that of the Manhattan Project.
Deadly? Of course, but far from being up to date.
Korea is their main know how supplier while Germany has provided much but at the general level mainly in the controllers side of things.
Yet, the last known Korean test delivered a very low yield indicating that did not have credible strategic capabilities. I doubt that China will volunteer up to date technology to them.
Iran will have a couple of basic nuclear devices.
Will they try to deliver them? Yes.
They will never know what effect if any they will achieve.
Iran’s nuclear technology is decades advanced from what we had available during WWII. We produced the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs before the invention of transistors, computers and guided missles; and we did not have the technology available to enrich uranium with centrifuge tubes. What’s more, we were shooting in the dark: We couldn’t even be assured that the devices wouldn’t cause a chain reaction in the ocean that would destroy the earth. The Iranians are getting expert help from the Koreans and Pakistanis, as well as Russian and Ukrainian experts who are for sale to the highest bidder.
Thanks for the response, Andrew.
I would bet good money that Turkey invades Israel. You may think that Israel can mop the deck with them; but the Turkish masses probably think otherwise; and once a Muslim leader starts spouting off his mouth against Israel, he is on a road he can’t get off without going to war.
Israel has nukes. So does Turkey, about 40 of them under its control. The Turks also have some 17 frigates, 14 corvettes and 19 submarines, if I remember correctly, vs. Israel’s 3 corvettes and 3 submarines. The Israelis have the Greeks as allies, of course, which evens up the score a bit; but then, the Turks have Egypt as an ally, which has been armed with advanced American equipment. Remember that the Egyptians attacked Israel three times, with allies far less powerful than the Turks helping them.
As for Russia being the land in the “Far North”, you might note that Finland and Lapland are even farther north; but neither of them were even on the map in Ezekiel’s time. Turkey is specifically identified, as “Gog”, or “Gugu” or “Gyges” in Assyrian and Greek, respectively, was a well-known king in a powerful kingdom in Western Turkey. Russia, at the time, didn’t even exist: It was founded in the Middle Ages by a Scandanavian tribe called the “Rus”.
If that’s not enough to convince, Tubal, Mesheck, Gomer and Beit Togarmah were all in central and eastern Turkey.
It’s all there in the Bible, for whoever cares to look. Believe what you may about the Bible; but if I were an Israeli, I wouldn’t welcome a Turkish invasion with open arms expecting them to protect me from the Russians.
Apparently the “surge” was extremely succesful… again. But that was not because of the Quality of the US forces which are superb, nor about the material available, but it was due to the directions Mr. Soetoro is following.
The core reason for the action by the administration is the same that caused the US administration to install islamic extremists in several countries.
IRAN: Iran cannot develop a strategic nuclear force. At best and if things do not get wormed up again, they may develop a couple of pre-Hiroshima technology level devices. They may even launch but I doubt any of that will reach destination.
What will happen after that is that Iran will cease to exist and along with that any other that may volunteer on their side.
we can probably rely on the arab mistrust bordering on hatred of persians and turks. and that Iran is less than 60% persian, with borderlands of Azeris, Kurds, Lur, Baluchis, and a few other distinctive peoples.
what I wonder about the US exit is how Iraq is going to fill the void on 1) medical support, 2) logistics support, and 3) air force, all of which have been primary USA functions, in addition to training, and security.
where will it end? just be glad Tunisia held elections today – maybe set an example for Libya and Egypt.
at some point, another strongman will emerge in Iraq, or Moqtada al-Sadr will indeed be the Twelth Imam.
I disagree Bland. Gog comes from the “uttermost north” of Israel. That sounds like Russia to me. Turkey can’t even mop up a few kurds. How could it possibly invade the country with the fifth most powerful army armed with 200 nukes.
I got spam-botted. This is a bad habit, on Israpundit’s part. I said nothing inflammatory, and my spelling and grammar were excellent. Here’s my message:
Up to now, the US presence in Iraq has been a serious Israeli foreign policy consideration: If Israel wanted to preemptively strike Iran, for instance, it would have to have US permission for overflight. Now that restriction is gone; but so is the restraint on Iran against interfering with Iraqi politics and attempting to annex Iraq (which historically has been part of Iran). The rules of the game have suddenly changed, and Israel had better get ready for them.
At the same time, Turkey is in an almost identical situation concerning Syria: Turkish troops are poised to invade Syria at any time, a move that would put them at Israel’s border. Turkey at present is opposing Iran in its policy concerning Syria; but this can change quickly: Turkey has already made two 180-degree shifts in its Iranian policy in the past ten years, and it would have no scruples about making a third flip at a moment’s notice.
Turkey already is confronting Israel on the high seas, and is actively belligerent — as is Iran, with its nuclear program and accelerated dedication to defense research and weapons production — and, as I have said more than once now, the situation is fast changing, to where BOTH IRAN AND TURKEY may soon be Israel’s neighbors: powerful, armed and aggressive neighbors more dangerous than Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Iraq combined.
I will also remind readers, for the umpteenth time, that “Gog”, or “Gyges”, was the founder of the ruling dynasty in western TURKEY in Ezekiel’s time (viz Ezekiel 38, and the prophesied military adventure against Israel): It is not Russia, China, the USA or Mars. Please pay attention, Israel!
Up to now, the US presence in Iraq has been a serious Israeli foreign policy consideration: If Israel wanted to preemptively strike Iran, for instance, it would have to have US permission for overflight. Now that restriction is gone; but so is the restraint on Iran against interfering with Iraqi politics and attempting to annex Iraq (which historically has been part of Iran). The rules of the game have suddenly changed, and Israel had better get ready for them.
At the same time, Turkey is in an almost identical situation concerning Syria: Turkish troops are poised to invade Syria at any time, a move that would put them at Israel’s border. Turkey at present is opposing Iran in its policy concerning Syria; but this can change quickly: Turkey has already made two 180-degree shifts in its Iranian policy in the past ten years, and it would have no scruples about making a third flip at a moment’s notice.
Turkey already is confronting Israel on the high seas, and is actively belligerent — as is Iran, with its nuclear program and accelerated dedication to defense research and weapons production — and, as I have said more than once now, the situation is fast changing, to where BOTH IRAN AND TURKEY may soon be Israel’s neighbors: powerful, armed and aggressive neighbors more dangerous than Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Iraq combined.
I will also remind readers, for the umpteenth time, that “Gog”, or “Gyges”, was the founder of the ruling dynasty in western TURKEY in Ezekiel’s time (viz Ezekiel 38, and the prophesied military adventure against Israel): It is not Russia, China, the USA or Mars. Please pay attention, Israel!