By | Dec 6, 2025
After the return of the 20 Israeli hostages who were still alive, and the bodies of 27 deceased hostages whom Hamas had killed in captivity, in exchange for 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, including 250 serving life sentences for murdering Israelis, and the ceasefire arranged two months ago between Hamas and Israel continued, albeit shakily, in force, it was time to move to Phase Two of Trump’s plan to bring a permanent end to the Gaza War. But Hamas has made clear that the most important part of Phase Two — the disarmament of the terror group — will not happen.
More on this immovable obstacle can be found here: “‘Dead on Arrival’: Inside the Breakdown of Second Phase of Gaza Ceasefire and Hamas’s Resurgent Control,” by Debbie Weiss, Algemeiner, December 3, 2025:
The second phase of the Trump administration’s Gaza plan has collapsed into “stalemate,” according to Gaza-born analyst Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, derailing plans to disarm Hamas and enabling the terrorist group to reassert control over aid convoys and Gaza’s three main hospitals, which he said have turned into interrogation centers for political opponents.
“Phase Two is not going to proceed,” Alkhatib, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said in a call with journalists on Tuesday.
Under the plan, the first stage included Hamas releasing all the remaining hostages, both living and deceased, who were kidnapped by Hamas-led Palestinian terrorists during their Oct. 7, 2023, invasion of and massacre across southern Israel. In exchange, Israel released thousands of Palestinian prisoners and detainees and partially withdrew its military forces in Gaza.
Currently, the Israeli military controls 53 percent of Gaza’s territory, and Hamas has moved to reestablish control over the other 47 percent. However, the vast majority of the Gazan population is located in the Hamas-controlled half, where the Islamist group has been imposing a brutal crackdown.
The second stage of the US plan was supposed to install an interim administrative authority — a so-called “technocratic government” — deploy an International Stabilization Force — a multinational force meant to take over security in Gaza — and begin the demilitarization of Hamas, the Palestinian terrorist group that has ruled the enclave for nearly two decades.
As of now, no “technocrats” have been selected to run Gaza after Hamas is forced to give up its arms and, consequently, its political power.
“The International Stabilization Force is dead on arrival,” Alkhatib said. “The gap between what the force is meant to do versus the expectation of the volunteers is too wide.”
Alkhatib’s comments stood in stark contrast to those of US President Donald Trump, who on Wednesday told reporters at the White House that phase two of his Gaza peace plan was “going to happen pretty soon.”
“It’s going very well. We have peace in the Middle East. People don’t realize it,” Trump said.
“We have peace in the Middle East.” Not in Gaza. Not in Judea and Samaria. Not in Latakia or Sweida in Syria. Not in Yemen. Not in Iraq. Not in Lebanon.
“Phase two is moving along. It’s going to happen pretty soon.”…
No, Phase Two is not “moving along.” Nor will Phase Two “happen pretty soon.” Trump is whistling in the dark. He refuses to recognize that Hamas has said no, a thousand times no, and instead of disarming, is readying itself both with new recruits, and new weapons supplied by Qatar, to fight against any attempt by anyone to disarm it.
Everyone expects that the two fabulously rich Arab oil states, Saudi Araba and the UAE, will be paying for almost all of the reconstruction in Gaza, and these two states, whose monarchs detest and fear the Muslim Brotherhood, do not want the MB’s two main supporters, Qatar and Turkey, to play any role in a postwar Gaza.
The Gaza-born analyst Alkhatib wonders why Qatar should not be asked to contribute billions more to rebuilding Gaza, if it is going to have such influence, via its support for Hamas, over the Strip.
Egypt and Jordan are both too strapped for cash and other resources to train security personnel to replace Hamas in Gaza. Other states, including Pakistan and Indonesia, are not willing to send troops into the Gaza morass, where their troops before raising up recruits and training a new security force, would have to engage in firefights with Hamas combatants who will resist having their weapons seized.
Hamas has now become akin to mafia extortionists, protecting the trucks that bring into Gaza commercial goods from other armed groups that might seize them. In exchange for such protection, Hamas demands a cut of the goods’ value.
Hamas also has reasserted its power to tax the aid shipments that have resumed, now that the Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation has closed. The terror group exacts a tax on each shipment, paid for by the Western humanitarian groups that are now, because of this tax, helping finance Hamas.
The Gaza militias, meanwhile, many of them based on large families, or clans, are determined to resist Hamas, and not only Hamas, but also any presence of military forces from the three countries — Qatar, Turkey, and Iran — that support Hamas. These militias now have thousands of members, and extend from Rafah in the south to Gaza City in the north. They are well-armed, with some of their weapons believed to have come from Israel, which seized them from Hamas arsenals.
If Trump is determined to force Hamas to disarm, he could send American arms and money to the clan-based militias, to help them in their battles throughout Gaza with Hamas. Or he could declare that “because Hamas refuses to disarm, I have told the Israelis that they should no longer feel bound by the ceasefire that was attained in Phase One, and should go after Hamas on both sides of the Yellow Line.” Or he might even have added that “along with the clan-based militias that have been fighting Hamas so bravely, and the IDF forces that are now relieved of having to observe a ceasefire, I will be sending in American airplanes and drones to help reduce Hamas’ forces on the ground to smithereens. I promised I would bring peace to Gaza, and the possibility of prosperity to the Strip, and that’s exactly what I will do.”
I guess allowing IDF to return to eliminating Hamas is something we should be thankful for.
Gimme a break!
First have a cease fire Hudna as the Arabs call it, then, when they have rearmed, regrouped and are ready to continue the war, get permission from daddy to go back in, risk more Israeli lives and get back after an expensive period of fighting to where we were before the Hudna was declared. Sure, we got almost all of the hostages back and we’re grateful for that, but the intention was not to wash, rinse and repeat. We have done that often enough. The only people actually cheering about this result are those like the EU who don’t want to get their fingers dirty but scream at every opportunity that not enough aid is getting in to the poor Gazans who through no fault of their own are in this predicament. Gimme another break, right now!
As the article describes, Hamas is being rearmed. How do these arms get into the west half of the strip. There must still be a few remaining tunnel highways between Egypt and Gaza. How do these lillyhearted suppliers of humanitarian aid justify paying Hamas a tax for the permission to provide aid that is immediately stolen by Hamas?
Regarding the policing activities of Hamas, this behavior should be employed against Hamas rather than what they’re doing to the average Gazans who would like nothing more than to move to Somalian Minnesota and get all the free goodies. I would call for another break but I think all of us need one!!
Finally, those taqiyya laden Egyptians, Qataris and Turks have been playing both sides against each other long enough. The Saudis have been patiently waiting for Israel to correct this situation, especially against supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood. They have invested so much in their own military that they should be able to easily solve this problem themselves rather than insisting on their version of a Two State Solution as a means to block any kind of progress. DJT should wake up and recognize that his friendship with MbS is built on the shifting sands of taqiyya, not to speak of the Qataris. Permission for the Israelis to insert some order there is on a short leash and would only last for a short moment till the rest if the world figures out that miniscule Israel is suddenly controlling most of MENA. That can’t be allowed to happen!
The final paragraph above has the only possible solution to this “ceasefire” – Trump must allow the IDF to go in and pursue Hamas with full force; then, as suggested, relieve the IDF by sending in American planes and drones to finish the job. Does anyone think this will happen?
@Liz44
I do, but I don’t think the US should or will be sending planes or drones to support or relieve Israel in what comes next.
A careful reading of the Trump plan specifically provides for Israel to execute such an action if Hamas fails to disarm, and it is incumbent on Bibi to make this aspect of Trump’s plan a reality. He has the political and logistical tools needed to affect this. The only question is whether he will actually do so. In truth, I don’t believe he has any alternative but to proceed, and if he fails to do so, Trump’s goals for the Middle East will complicate his ability stem the rising power of China – in fact, it will see China’s strength in the Middle East grow while that of the US diminishes.
Though Trump is on a deadline, the Day After plan in Gaza will have lasting effects. The only question is whether those effects will improve US regional prestige, or add to its erosion. If Bibi fails to follow thru on eliminating Hamas, no matter what the consequences might be, it will be a tragedy for Israel, the moderate Sunni states, and regional stability, with the latter being an absolute requirement for American interests in the region to be maintained or strengthened. Time will tell if I am correct of course, but I believe that Trump’s pronouncement of Phase II beginning in the near future was actually a signal to everyone that his patience with his Hamas supporting Arab partners is at its end.
@peloni,
Sure, the plan invisages the option for Israel to go back to carefully bombing Hamas, but we’ve done that too many times already. The only feasible approach is to get rid of them all. If any country is willing to take them in, they are free to go. If not, Israel is free to find its own solution to this problem using whatever degree of force is needed. Nobody else will take up this task. The all too willing Turkish offer is only intended to provide them with a beach head. When installed, they will manufacture some provocation or other which will be turned into the excuse for THEM to attack Israel from under the NATO umbrella.
Just as a reminder, DJT will be gone in 3 years. The next president will have other ideas about how to deal or not with the MENA. While Bibi may be informed about DJT’s plans, they are not transparent enough for us to see a bright future on the horizon unless it’s from an atomic explosion.
@dreuveni
What is taking place now, for better or worse will have lasting effects. For the next president to undo it, it would require them to place an even greater effort to replace whatever Trump and Bibi have planned for the region, and this is simply not going to happen, again, for better or worse.
@dreuveni
Actually, what is taking root is the creation of a zone inside the Israeli held territory which will house the Gazan civilians. Once that is achieved, ignoring the many disquieting issues I do have with this plan, Israel will be at liberty to go total war on Hamas. The rearming, regrouping and months of preparation which Hamas has been allowed will have a detrimental effect, but, the plan which exists, as certified by the UN and supported by Trump, allows for Bibi to do more than mow the grass again. It provides him the opportunity to deliver a decisive defeat to these butchers, to finally claim victory, as the Hamas supporting Arabs impotently look on, some in horror and others with a sense of hidden relief.
The task falls to Bibi to do this, and it has always been true that this was not only where things would ultimately end, but that it stands to support both US and Israeli vital interests, which is why I expect it will be what we will see. Likewise it will also provide both Trump and Bibi, personally, with the means of claiming victory over Hamas to garner support from their relative constituencies which only adds to the reality that this is what should be expected to take place. Or so I would argue.
2026 should prove to be an interesting and revealing year.