Peloni: Important reflections by Sinan Ciddi, a senior fellow at FDD and director of the Turkey program, as he talks with EMET’ Sarah Stern about the expansionist policies of Turkey and its effect in Syria and the region as Erdogan pursues a power-driven strategy seeking to position Turkey as a ever increasingly dominant regional and potentially global actor amid the shifting Middle Eastern power dynamics.
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Summary
Sinan Ciddi explains that after taking power, Shara moved to unify Syria under a centralized government, rejecting Kurdish autonomy in the northeast. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which had partnered with the United States to defeat ISIS and governed the autonomous region of Rojava for over a decade, resisted integration due to mistrust of Shara’s jihadist past and fears of persecution. However, U.S. policy shifted under President Trump. Sanctions on Syria were lifted, Shara was diplomatically welcomed, and Washington signaled it would no longer back non-state actors like the SDF. Facing American disengagement and Turkish military pressure, the Kurds were pushed toward integration into the Syrian army as a consequence.
Ciddi continues by noting that Turkey plays a central role in this new order. Ankara had long opposed U.S. support for the SDF, viewing it as linked to the PKK insurgency. Turkey backed Shara’s rise and maintains a large military presence in Syria. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sees Assad’s fall and Iran’s weakening as historic opportunities to expand Turkish influence across the Middle East.
Despite being a NATO member, Turkey maintains extensive ties with Russia, including energy dependence (roughly half its fossil fuel needs), trade relations, and Russia’s construction of Turkey’s first nuclear power plant. While unlikely to pursue nuclear weapons through Russia, Turkey has shown interest in closer ties with Pakistan, signaling long-term strategic ambition. NATO tolerates Turkey’s balancing act because of its strategic importance: control of Black Sea access, hosting key U.S. intelligence bases, strong drone production, and a rapidly expanding naval shipbuilding sector.
Beyond Syria, Ciddi reminds us that Turkey is expanding influence in the Horn of Africa, particularly Somalia, where it maintains a major military base, energy exploration rights, and extensive training missions. This expansion may combine commercial interests with broader geopolitical positioning, including cultivating Muslim-majority states diplomatically.
Domestically, Ciddi indicates that Erdogan appears to be preparing for succession, possibly favoring his son Bilal. Though Turkey has no tradition of dynastic rule and economic dissatisfaction is high, concerns remain about whether future elections will be fully free. While Turkey lacks an Iranian-style ideological militia, a private military contractor, Sadat, functions as a loyalist force.
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