By Walter E. Block
There are several fallacies being bruited about concerning the defensive war of the US and Israeli against Iran. Make no mistake about it; this is indeed a defensive war. Both the Big Satan and the Little Satan have been threatened not over the years but rather the decades. There have been incessant calls for “Death to the U.S.” and “Death to the Zionist ‘Entity.’” This is defense, not offense. Every attendee at all basketball games full well knows the difference between the two. Too bad it has escaped antisemites the world over.
What are the fallacies? One of them is that “boots on the ground” are an absolute requirement for regime change. Ignorant pundits go so far as to assert that this has never occurred in all of our history.
For example, Matthew Duss, the executive vice president at the Center for International Policy, stated: “You can damage buildings; you can damage the regime, but we don’t have examples of when air power alone has achieved regime change.”
According to TimesNow: “Air strikes may weaken Iran’s leadership, but experts say they cannot ensure regime change without internal support or ground intervention.”
In the view of AsiaTimes: “Iran regime change (is) a fantasy without US boots on the ground.”
Anyone ever hear of Japan in 1945? There was not a singled solitary US boot on Japanese territory at that time, and yet the regime certainly changed; and radically so.
Let me be pellucidly clear here. I am not suggesting the US and/or Israel should employ a nuclear weapon on Tehran. God forbid. I am merely asserting that the claim of these “experts” is fallacious.
Moreover, I hope and trust the Jewish state has learned a lesson in this regard. It had placed boots on the ground in Gaza in 2023, at the horrific cost of several hundred members of the IDF. Never again! Civilized countries have a gigantic comparative advantage in the air over rag tag groups of fighters, and even underdeveloped counties such as Iran. Whereas, while it cannot be denied that man for man they are also more powerful on the ground, but by nowhere near to the same degree. Why fight bullies with one hand tied behind our backs?
The next fallacy has to do with inflation. Economic illiterates are widely complaining that with the reduction in oil production thanks to this altercation, inflation will be visited upon us. Hooey. Who has been uttering this fallacy?
AP News falsely asserts: “Oil prices jumped Tuesday for the second straight day and gas prices moved higher in the United States, underscoring the threat of rising inflation posed by the Iran war.”
The folks at Forbes (who really ought to know better) tell us: “Higher gas and energy prices have stoked fears the war in Iran may prolong inflation.”
PBS asserts: “The war has already raised oil prices and could lift prices at the pump as early as this week, but the ultimate impact on the economy and inflation will depend on the length and severity of the conflict, economists say.”
The economists who say this ought to have their PhD degrees rescinded. We have recalls for all sorts of things, cars, tires, mechanical equipment of all types and varieties. Why not for dismal scientists?
To be sure, it cannot be denied, that with a lower supply of oil, its price will rise. But inflation is a general rise in average prices, not in any one or even a few of them. Inflation is always and ever a monetary phenomenon. An increase in the money supply is necessary and sufficient to create inflation, assuming no cash balance effects or other such monetary alterations.
Assume that the price of oil rises, but no more money is place in circulation by the central bank. Well, we will now have less money to spend on other goods and services. Their prices will fall! Thus, there will not be, there cannot be, anything like an increase in the overall inflation rate.
Third, there are high profile folk who charge the there is “No end point or end game” to this war.
Saith DC Report: “Trump’s Iran War: Bombing Without a Plan, … or Endgame”
Avers the Daily Beast: “Secret Hill Briefing Reveals That There’s No Endgame in Iran.”
There is too an “end point.” Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu have been crystal clear that there is indeed an end game: Regime change, no Iranian nukes, no more support for terrorist proxies such as Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis. Stop with the terror. How will this be attained? Unconditional surrender. It is difficult to see why everyone cannot see this goal.
The discussion on inflation is enlightening and I wonder why I never thought of that. We can only have higher inflation when more money is in circulation!
The end game of regime change in Iran while relevant immediately will not really initiate a significant change. If we take a broader look around, it was not Iran or China that started off this portion of history, it was the Russia.
We need not go back so far as the Elders of Zion or the unending pogroms of the previous centuries, it suffices to remember that the KGB gave birth to Arafat’s PLO. They have backed up Iran all the way. The “agree” with China on almost everything if it hurts the USA, Europe or, not to be forgotten, Israel. Sure, there were plenty of willing accomplices and there still are, but if we want to survive the next few years, we need to be careful what we wish and pray for.