April 9, 2026
In my last posting – https://arlenefromisrael.info/because-we-must-is-why/ – I had praised President Trump highly because he was politically astute enough to recognize the dangers of Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran, and responsible enough to pull the US out of that deal and reimpose sanctions on Iran.
Who could have imagined that, less than a week later, I would find it necessary to take a very different tone.
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When I wrote last, just days ago, we were facing down a deadline that Trump had imposed on Iran with regard to opening the Strait of Hormuz, which they had been blocking, causing the price of oil to soar.
If the regime did not act by his deadline – which in the US was Tuesday night April 7, 8 P.M. daylight time, and in Israel early morning Wednesday April 8, 3 A.M. daylight time and 30 minutes later in Iran – then all hell was going to break loose. I will get to the details of what he projected for that “hell” shortly.
This was not the first deadline he had imposed. In typical Trump fashion, he kept pushing ahead the ultimate deadline. But BOY! This was going to be it.
How did we know? Well, actually we made some tentative assumptions (they could only be tentative) because of how he wrote on his Truth Social platform in a series of posts starting last Sunday:
“Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the F——-in’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell.”
And then on Monday:
“The entire country can be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night. We have a plan, because of the power of our military, where every bridge in Iran will be decimated by 12 o’clock tomorrow night.”
https://apnews.com/article/trump-iran-deadline-final-strait-hormuz-1c0894ef4a2c2feaabc326cc68571c33
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On Tuesday morning, he exceeded all of his previous vitriolic threats, when he wrote this:
“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World. 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran!”
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116363336033995961
This was really bad, exceeding his ”normal” over-the-top, profanity-employing bombast. I thought it colossally stupid, as the aim of this war is to take down an Islamist regime that acts counter to traditional Persian culture (“civilization”). Broadly speaking, that culture rests with the people, (some of the people, actually, as not all Iranians are ethnic Persian). The goal is to create a climate that would allow cultural traditions to be revived, and he had it all wrong when he wrote this. But then, he often does not give careful thought to broader implications before making a statement.
But the international response was far more severe. Rather than marking his remark as stupid, as I did, it was understood – especially by human rights organizations and groups not enamored of Trump – as meaning he was planning attacks on civilians. I do not believe this for a moment, but he left himself open to this.
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For those of us who are religiously observant, waiting for the news of whether the president followed through on his threats was particularly frustrating: 3 A.M. on April 8 fell during the last day of Pesach, which is a full holiday during which opening of electronic devices, which would have allowed us to secure news, is forbidden. We had to wait.
There was a major clue, however, for it was quiet. Too quiet. The widely-held assumption – it was certainly my assumption – was that if the US hit bridges, power sources and more, there would have been a very substantial barrage of rockets immediately prior to the attack or immediately following. And this was not the case. Where I was, there was not a single siren the entire night. (Warnings from Home Command of missiles or drones entering our air space come through automatically.) For the first time, this silence left me restive rather than relaxed.
And then came the word: Ceasefire. Say what?? Thoroughly bewildering after all of Trump’s threats.
Here I again offer a proviso, as I have repeatedly during this war: for the most part at present I can only offer a broad overview of the situation accompanied by some analysis. There is a great deal of confusion and conflicting information. In addition to which the situation is in flux.
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The announcement by Trump:
Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE! The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East. We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated. On behalf of the United States of America, as President, and also representing the Countries of the Middle East, it is an Honor to have this Longterm problem close to resolution.
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116365796713313030
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There is so much wrong with this statement:
To begin with, all of the military objectives have not been exceeded. It is certainly true that great damage has been done to Iran, which has lost its navy, had its missile cache and launchers depleted, etc. But Iran still possess enriched uranium (it is believed up to 540 kilograms of enriched uranium are probably in Isfahan). It still has centrifuges and has not agreed to halt enrichment. It still has ballistic missiles (estimates are perhaps 700 to 1,000 down from 2,500 to 3,500) and launchers (no estimate as to how many, as some can be retrieved from under rubble), nor has it agreed to stop supporting its proxies.
Additionally, there is no way, remotely, that almost all past points of contention have already been agreed to, or that all outstanding issues could be finalized within two weeks.
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So what is happening here?
Trump specifically mentions Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who seems to have assumed the role of key negotiator and encouraged this ceasefire.
By Shehbaz Sharif – CM Punjab Shehbaz Sharif, CC BY 2.0, Wikipedia
Vice President JD Vance will be heading the American delegation in negotiations with Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi heading the Iranian delegation.
Now let us stop for a minute and look at why these two Iranians will be leading the negotiations.
Israel had been diligently taking out one Iranian leader after another, when Sharif contacted Trump and advised him that not everyone in a leadership position should be killed, or else “there won’t be anyone to talk to.” He recommended that Ghalibaf and Araghchi be allowed to remain standing. Trump requested that we remove these names from our hit list, which we did. And surprise! Just weeks later, the US will be negotiating with them.
Not sure if seeing all the connections makes me very astute, or a bit paranoid.
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And there is more. Go back to the Trump declaration about ending a civilization. In the midst of all the talk about what he was going to destroy, he also wrote this: “now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen…”
Trump has spoken several times recently about “regime change”, and I have challenged that, for both Ghalibaf and Araghchi were part of the old regime going back before the war. What is more, Ghalibaf is not “less radical.” With long-time Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps connections, he is as mean and tough and devious as they come. He just assumes a more “moderate” public image.
So, was Trump setting us up? In the midst of his saber rattling and chest thumping, was he preparing us to accept a deal he would make with Iran to extricate himself from further fighting? I do not have an answer, merely suspicions. It depends on Trump himself in the end.
Very recently Sharif had come to Trump with suggestions about a ceasefire and Trump had rejected this proposal. He had been advised by Netanyahu not to go with a ceasefire. What changed? Is it simply the pressure against the war from inside of the US, or more?
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The main American proviso for this two-week ceasefire was that Iran open the Strait. Apparently they did, briefly. But then there was a glitch: The Iranians said that they had understood that a ceasefire in Hezbollah was part of the deal. Then they learned it was not. And so, in retaliation, they were closing the Strait.
Netanyahu really had not choice but to agree to halt fighting in Iran for two weeks (and I wonder what Trump offered, or threated, to move him in this regard). But he was adamant about continuing fighting with Hezbollah. Hezbollah resumed launching large numbers of rockets, drones and missiles at northern Israel when the war with Iran began in February. We have been hitting them hard (and even with the “ceasefire” now, the people in the north continue to suffer because Hezbollah is launching missiles in their direction).
On Wednesday, the IDF carried out its largest coordinated strikes against Hezbollah terror targets in Lebanon since the start of “Operation Roaring Lion,” hitting about 100 sites across multiple areas simultaneously within 10 minutes. This operation had been in the planning for weeks.
Vance said there had been a “misunderstanding” about Hezbollah being included. But I then read that Pakistan had told Iran that it was.
Apparently under duress from Trump, Israel is seeking a diplomatic agreement with the government of Lebanon. More on this soon.
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As I write, the Strait is still closed, and Iran has continued to fire on the Gulf states. Trump is fuming. The US has given Iran a 36-hour deadline to meet all ceasefire terms or fighting may resume. No US troops or military equipment have been removed from the area, and the US army is reportedly prepared to resume fighting. It goes without saying that the IDF is prepared, as well – but let me say it.
Trump’s announcement of the ceasefire includes a statement that he represents the countries of the Middle East, but that is not true. The Gulf states have indicated they want the US to keep fighting as Iran is not yet vanquished sufficiently.
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There is no question, I think, that Iran agreed to the talks because they were hurting. But precisely when they are hurting is when there should be no let up in attacks. We are dealing with evil. That has not changed.
They will lie, and stall, and agree to stipulations that they have no intention of honoring. As Islamists with an absolutist ideology, which continues to include the destruction of Israel, they will be patient and move forward as they can. They will never surrender.
But they must be brought to their knees.
If they are not, and the war ends with an agreement, they will have been given diplomatic legitimacy, and without question perks or concessions of one sort or another, all of which would strengthen them. They are speaking about charging for passage through the Strait; that alone would be a disaster, as it would help to fund their re-establishment.
There is a list of outrageous demands that Iran has circulated, presumably for discussion in negotiations. Trump says this is not the “real” list, and the one that is going to be discussed contains points that can be dealt with.
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And so, a great deal depends upon Trump now. There is talk that he has returned to his TACO status: Trump Always Chickens Out. He starts wars and doesn’t finish them. He has been the greatest friend Israel could have, but we here in Israel know that this situation can shift radically at a moment’s notice. The internal pressures on him to end the war are great, in addition to which we know he truly prefers deals.
But there are moral and strategic issues of huge importance riding on what happens with Iran. Will he have the clarity of vision, the fortitude, and the will to see it through?
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What is possible – and I don’t want to close without mentioning this – is that Trump’s readiness to deal with Iran is a ruse. It could be that in the end he will declare that, see, he tried for a settlement that would bring peace, but that because of Iranian intransigence and the dangers presented by the regime he was forced to return to fighting. Who knows? It is possible.
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I ask, as I always do, that you please pray.
©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
The Iranians will always agree to whatever is demanded of them if they perceive a loophole through which they can claim that they were deceived by their opponent and thus have no choice but to continue doing what they want to do anyway.
This is simply a subtitle in their rush to try to get in the very last kick when their enemy has already taken his seat. This is all included in the fine art of Taqiya.
In a soccer game, they would be proudly showing off their red and yellow cards.
The proof? The cease-fire was barely announced when the next barrage of missiles were on their way.
We must assume that a very careful eye is watching over activities in Iran, especially near Isfahan where their enriched uranium is suspected of being stored. Let’s hope that other potential sites are also being closely monitored.