During the Ceasefire

Shoshana Bryen • JPC • April 10, 2026

U.S. Sailor guides a Panther helicopter during a supply transfer between USS Pinckney and USNS Carl Brashear during Operation Epic Fury, March 20, 2026. (Photo: U.S. Navy)

A ceasefire is, by definition, a temporary situation. In the best case, it is followed by peace. In other cases, the battle returns. Iran has already announced that it has reclosed the Straits of Hormuz. And just before that, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, told a briefing audience this morning, US forces remain in place. In such a situation, there are a few rules for understanding where we are, Including why it has already been violated by Iran.

• Pay no attention to President Trump’s words – leaders often stomp their feet and throw things to make a point. He does more than his share. But remember, Ayatollah Khomeini, who started this war 47 years ago, described Israel as a “deep cancer,” a “lethal, dangerous, cancerous tumor,” a “malignant cancerous tumor,” and a “deadly cancerous growth” that “must be removed,” “eradicated.” (HT @JoosyJew)

It didn’t produce the outrage that President Trump’s remarks did.

• Pay attention to the President’s actions: He offered Iran exactly what he offers every single country with which he negotiates – peace, security, and prosperity in exchange for doing, or not doing, what they have committed to do. Recent history tells us that some leaders accept the terms; other leaders accept the terms and lie.

Iran lied. This will be America’s ongoing problem with Iran.

• “Official” statements from Iran are like “official” statements from the Gaza Health Ministry and should be taken with the same tablespoon of salt. Here is one of the latest examples:
  The American side, despite all the apparent threats, has accepted these principles as the basis for negotiations and has surrendered to the will of the Iranian people… If the surrender of the enemy in the field becomes a decisive political achievement in the negotiations, we will celebrate this great historical victory together, otherwise we will fight side by side in the field until all the demands of the Iranian nation are achieved.

That’s a big “if.”

• Pay no attention to French President Emmanuel Macron. He declared it “unrealistic” to open the Strait of Hormuz by force and that “this can only be done in concert with Iran.” He is planning for the next French surrender.
• Pay little to no attention to the other voices saying the US-led war against the mullahs and their intention to have nuclear capabilities is already lost. Like this one: Preventing an Iranian Bomb Is Only Getting Harder, where the author posits, “A weaker, angrier, more suspicious regime with a less cautious supreme leader and leverage over Hormuz. What could go wrong?” (As if Iran wasn’t already angry and suspicious? As if weaker countries are better at building nuclear weapons?)
• And, finally, pay no attention to the poseurs who claim the US is committing “war crimes” by attacking Iranian infrastructure.

So, how is the war going? What should we know and who should we believe?

The first question requires a question in response. How would you have judged WWII during the entrapment of American troops at Anzio? (Disclosure: my father was at Anzio and was wounded twice.) How would you have judged it after two months, five months, and, ultimately, nine months? Midstream, it is hard to tell.

We, and Israel, have had some remarkable successes. General Caine described three (limited) American military objectives: destroy  Iran’s ballistic missile and missile production capability; destroy the Iranian Air Force and Navy; and destroy Iran’s defense industrial base. We have, he said, accomplished those objectives.

Those successes, however, do not by themselves engender peace.

Iran is executing minors;  controlling the Strait of Hormuz – remember, the ceasefire is a ceasefire, not peace; and rocketing Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Iran’s relations with China and Russia remain intact, although Venezuela is no longer in a position to launder Iranian oil.

For the second question, find experts, not “experts.”

• Listen to Gen. Caine describe the destruction of Iranian assets and capabilities. Listen to Gen. Caine whenever he speaks, and to Adm. Bradley Cooper, USCENTCOM Commander.
• To understand Israel’s operations, follow the Ministry of Defense and The Hon. Yechiel Leiter, Ambassador to the US. There are also excellent journalists, and reputable think tanks. Consider the totality of their work.
• On the subject of the Laws of Armed Conflict (LOAC), “genocide,” “war crimes,” “proportionality,” and “international law,” look for John Spencer, Dr. Brian Cox, and Col. Andrew Fox – X posts and Substack.
• For the best takedown of MSM & academia, see Behold, the ‘Experts’ in Media and Academia Who Insist Iran Is Winning by Armin Rosen.

And, as a general rule, limit your scroll-time.

Walk outside.

Breathe.