Hamas Refusal to Disarm Sets Stage for Gaza Escalation

Mark Dubowitz | April 28, 2026

Photo by Fars Media Corporation, CC BY 4.0, Wikipedia

While the U.S.-Iran standoff and Hezbollah attacks from Lebanon make headlines, Israel has been stepping up preparations for a resumption of warfare in the Gaza Strip. Hamas is refusing U.S. overtures to disarm and is trying to relitigate President Donald Trump’s plan for rehabilitating the Palestinian enclave. While the timing and tactics of any new Israeli offensive have yet to be determined, there should be no doubt that Hamas is again imperiling Gaza.

Lethal Strikes on the Rise

The last two weeks have seen near-daily Israeli airstrikes against Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and other Palestinian terrorist groups throughout the Gaza Strip. The dozens of fatalities have included gunmen who were trying to penetrate the “Yellow Line” that demarcates the Israeli-held side of the territory under the U.S.-brokered ceasefire deal; an armorer; a rocket squad; weapons smugglers; and several commanders who were involved in the October 7, 2023, atrocities in southern Israel.

Some of the strikes targeted Palestinian police who operate on the Hamas-controlled side of the “Yellow Line.” These personnel have been involved in efforts to shore up the battered Hamas regime through control of funds, forced recruitment of new fighters, and intimidation of Palestinian dissidents.

Hamas now has an estimated 27,000 gunmen mobilized — numbers approaching its prewar strength. Critically, however, the terrorist group lacks hardware, as evidenced by its failure to launch rockets at Israel in solidarity with its Iranian sponsor during the combined U.S.-Israeli military operations against the Tehran regime.

Israel currently controls the Gaza-Egypt border, cutting off Hamas’s supply lines for heavier weaponry. Additionally, many foundries within the Palestinian territory were destroyed during the war and the materials to rebuild them are unavailable.

Cairo Negotiations Drag On

The fact that Hamas’s arsenal has been largely reduced to Kalashnikov rifles and improvised explosive devices should have prodded the terrorist group toward accepting the post-ceasefire phase of Trump’s Gaza plan. When there aren’t many weapons to hand, laying them down in return for a lavish international reconstruction project should have been a no-brainer.

But in multiple rounds of negotiations in Cairo — first indirectly, with U.S. envoys and then directly with Nickolay Mladenov, chief envoy for the Board of Peace administering the Gaza plan — Hamas has balked. Some of its leaders have tried to reverse the plan’s sequencing by insisting on Israeli territorial withdrawals first. Other Hamas officials have argued that the plan would leave them defenseless, despite the explicit offer of immunity, and even safe passage abroad, if they renounced terrorism.

Doha Showing Hamas the Door?

There are preliminary reports that Qatar is finally showing Hamas the door after harboring the faction for two decades and favoring it in mediated Gaza ceasefire negotiations. This would be welcome news: Hamas leaders must be reminded that they lost the war and stand to lose their lives unless they submit to the Trump plan and reintegrate peacefully in a post-war Gaza.

Failing that, Israel will undoubtedly be forced to fight in Gaza afresh. Its military commitment in Lebanon is big but not on a scale that would prevent the reignition of the southern front.

Whereas Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government set measured goals in the wars against Hezbollah and Iran — disarmament, followed by potential internal regime change — Jerusalem committed itself to the total elimination of Hamas and the terrorist threat in Gaza.

Hamas is boxed in and no longer a strategic threat to Israel. But with an Israeli election due to be held by October 27, the Netanyahu government will want to deliver on its core Gaza goal. If the Board of Peace fails to persuade Hamas to disarm, then the job will be left to Israeli firepower. Viewed in retrospect, the current low-intensity strikes on Hamas will have prevented a terrorist buildup and softened terrorist targets ahead of any major offensive.

Mark Dubowitz is the CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from Mark and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Mark on X @mdubowitz. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.