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Summary:
- Amir Avivi explains that Iran is now controlled primarily by the IRGC, which is led by radicals unwilling to enter into any serious negotiations, making a renewal of the conflict likely.
- He said Israel and the U.S. have increasingly lost faith in negotiations with Iran.
- He argued that weakening Iran economically and strategically — especially by limiting its oil exports and its regional influence — would in turn come to weaken Hezbollah, the Houthis, and other Iranian-backed groups.
- Avivi noted that Israel has worked closely with the United Arab Emirates on defense and security matters and suggested regional cooperation with Gulf states could expand.
- Related to the war in Lebanon, Avivi states that Israel has created a buffer zone in southern Lebanon, targeted Hezbollah finances, and continued degrading the group militarily, though he acknowledged fully dismantling it would be a complicated undertaking.
- He notes that the Houthis have been significantly weakened and deterred by Israeli and American actions.
- Avivi warned that drone warfare, including AI-guided drone swarms, will play a major role in future conflicts and said Israel is currently developing countermeasures for this menace.
- He suggested ethnic minorities and dissidents inside Iran could eventually help destabilize the regime if outside pressure intensifies.
- In closing, Avivi expressed optimism about the potential for victory in the current wars as well as for Israel’s future in general.
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