“I’m seeing this a little differently now.”

Peloni 

VP Vance meets with Iranian delegation in Switzerland.  Screengrab via Youtube

There was an important online conversation between two highly reliable and well informed online reporters recently, the implications of which bears considering.  The exchange in question took place between @OSINT613 and @JewishWarrior13.

In this conversation, it was noted that while the MOU promises away many key factors to the benefit of Iran, it still requires the Iranians to agree to many key concessions in order for them to gain access to these benefits.  Among the exceptions to this ongoing bartering between Trump and the IRGC, however, is the immediate lifting of US sanctions allowing the free sale of oil.  Iran’s Speaker of the Parliament, Ghalibaf, acknowledges that the oil is being sold at a 20% premium, but due to the continued sanctions from the EU, Jay of Open Source Intel notes that only China would buy the oil from Iran.  So while they still have access to freely sell their oil due to US sanctions being lifted, Iran is still limited to its pre-war market, albeit with a sizeable increase in revenue per Ghalibaf.

Also, due to the actions of Israel and Lebanon to enter into their non-peace agreement which allows Israeli troops to remain in Southern Lebanon, the clause in the MOU is rendered null and void given that Israel and Lebanon are independent nations and not constrained by the MOU between the US and Iran.  Notably, it still remains as an intolerable reality that Trump linked any commitment for Israel’s freedom of action in Lebanon as part of its MOU with Iran, but the pressure from this overreach of US authority is what fueled the formation of this agreement.  Furthermore, the terms of this agreement still limits Israel’s actions to Southern Lebanon, leaving Hezbollah’s leadership headquarters in Beirut safely protected.  Nonetheless, the terms of the agreement demonstrate Lebanon’s authority, acting as an independent party to Iran and Hezbollah, and while Pres. Aoun’s protestations of demanding the removal of the Iranian Ambassador still have had no impact, the terms of the Israeli-Lebanese agreement have provided Israel with the basis by which to indefinitely remain in Lebanon, or at least until such time as circumstances change.

Hence the benefits for Iran under the MOU remain to be isolated to the free access to sell its oil at a premium to the same markets as it held before the war while maintaining a shield over the leadership headquarters of its proxy, Hezbollah, in Beirut.  Meanwhile the IDF is responding to immediate threats attacking its forces and continues to solidify territorial gains while doing so, even as it is not advancing or striking Hezbollah centers of command and control outside of Southern Lebanon.

These are differences of significant distinction.  The linkage made by Trump between Lebanon and Iran was a grievous outrage to both Israel’s freedom of action and Lebanese autonomy, but it has ultimately left Iran in a trap of its own making.

Meanwhile, Trump is once again saber rattling about returning to war.   This should not be understood to be idle banter, though this is an important tactic that Trump employs to keep the Iranians engaged.  Note that as recently indicated by @OptimisticCon J.E. Dyer the USS Boxer of the Boxer amphibious Marine group is being deployed to the Middle East, either as a further support deployment to possible upcoming actions there or in rotation to relieve the USS Tripoli which is already currently deployed there.  Either way, at a minimum, Trump is maintaining his options for military action against Iran.  So we will see what develops as the Iranians continue to obfuscate, prevaricate, bluster and delay.  As it was true at the beginning of this war and on the day Trump unilaterally declared a ceasefire and then again when he declared his MOU, Trump remains to be in a position to finish this war in victory if he chooses to do so.  As any hope of Iran agreeing to Trump’s terms stand today as remote as they have ever been, this leaves him with the ability to choose his own legacy:  to ultimately finish the task at hand in Iran, or to cement American defeat to the Iranians once again.  Either way, Israel is prepared to do as is needed to secure its future, much to the misfortune of what remains of the the Iranian regime in Tehran.

I’m seeing this a little differently now.

As of today, the U.S. has only lifted a 60-day temporary oil sanction waiver.

European sanctions remain in place.

That means Iran is largely back to where it was before the war, selling most of its oil to China. Most other buyers… https://t.co/s8DrVyOXAq

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 30, 2026

Text from OSINT613 Tweet above:

I’m seeing this a little differently now.

As of today, the U.S. has only lifted a 60-day temporary oil sanction waiver.

European sanctions remain in place.

That means Iran is largely back to where it was before the war, selling most of its oil to China. Most other buyers will not commit to Iranian crude while the U.S. waiver lasts only 60 days and Europe’s sanctions remain in place.

The U.S. has not unfrozen any funds yet .

Israel is also still in Lebanon after signing a direct agreement with Lebanon that conditions any Israeli withdrawal on Hezbollah’s disarmament. (Very big)

Iran is not in the strongest position. The oil relief it got is temporary and revocable. The funds for now are frozen. Israel stays in Lebanon.

The U.S. is still holding many of the cards.

Text from @JewishWarrior13 above:

Two items in the MOU that Iran agreed to: opening the Strait of Hormuz and negotiating the nuclear program in exchange for hundreds of billions of dollars. So far, the Strait of Hormuz is only partially open, and they refuse to negotiate on their nuclear program, yet the billions are still flowing to Iran. Such a “wonderful” deal.