The Changing Strategic Landscape

Peloni:  Avi Abelow perfectly describes where things stand and how they will likely proceed from here with the new outlook on Trumps efforts to continue his attempts at negotiations between rounds of war.  He also captures an accurate assessment of the political leadership in Israel going into new elections.  It is important to acknowledge that those men who are being considered to replace Bibi as PM each demonstrated aspects of strategic failure in the days, months and years which have past since October 7.  To be certain, Bibi failed to act to safeguard Gaza as Jewish lands, and that was an important setback not to be lightly dismissed.  Yet, as I have noted often, if it were not for Bibi having stood down the calls from those who pushed for Israel surrendering to Biden’s policy of “Don’t” among other issues, the position of the IDF today would not be in controlling 60-70% of Gaza, rather the IDF would be positioned outside of Gaza, or with at most a tiny fraction of it, with Hamas still being fed weapons from Egypt thru Rafah without any Israeli interference.

Avi Abelow

President Donald Trump alongside Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum during a Cabinet meeting at the White House, Dec. 2, 2025. Photo: Daniel Torok / Official White House Photo via Flickr / United States Government Work

The strategic landscape has changed dramatically. Thankfully, the worries over the memorandum of understanding are now behind us.

After Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States responded with overwhelming force.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth delivered a refreshingly blunt message:

“Iran made a bad choice. Now they are paying the price.”

And has anyone else noticed how little we have heard from JD Vance on Iran lately?

It is very encouraging to finally hear clearly from Hegseth, who understands both the enemy America and Israel are confronting and what must be done. Jihadi Muslim regimes do not interpret endless negotiations as goodwill. They interpret them as weakness and use them to buy time, regroup, and prepare their next attack.

There comes a point when talking is no longer a strategy. The threat must be confronted, defeated, and removed.

According to U.S. officials, American forces launched a massive wave of strikes against Iranian military infrastructure, targeting approximately 140 sites in a single operation, including missile bases, drone facilities, naval assets, communications networks, radar installations, and ammunition depots. Over the past three nights alone, more than 300 Iranian targets have reportedly been hit.

Meanwhile, Iran responded by launching missiles and drones toward the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, while also claiming responsibility for attacks on American naval logistics in Oman and following reports of attacks affecting the U.S. Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain.

This all comes just days after President Trump publicly declared that Iran’s leaders are “crazy” and announced that the memorandum of understanding and ceasefire were over. At the same time, he has also said he remains willing to continue talking with Iran.

Many people see those statements as contradictory.

I don’t.

From the beginning, I urged people not to panic over the memorandum of understanding. In my recent interview with White House counterterrorism envoy Sebastian Gorka, he delivered a clear message: “Trust President Trump.”

What we are witnessing now helps explain why.

President Trump appears willing to negotiate, but not from a position of weakness. The ceasefire is over. Iran no longer enjoys the luxury of attacking while expecting diplomatic protection. Every act of aggression now risks an immediate military response.

I have also consistently argued that the best lens through which to understand President Trump is his overriding concern for the American and global economy.

That means one thing above all else:

Oil.

When Iran threatens shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy chokepoint, it is no longer just threatening Israel or America’s allies. It is threatening the stability of the global economy.

That is a red line for President Trump.

Do I believe he necessarily wants regime change in Tehran?

No.

Personally, I wish he did. The Iranian people deserve freedom from a regime that has oppressed them for nearly half a century while exporting terrorism throughout the Middle East and beyond.

But I do believe President Trump will do what he believes is necessary to protect American interests. And if that means continuing to strike Iran, or allowing Israel the freedom to continue dismantling Iran’s military capabilities, I believe he will do exactly that.

For Israel, however, the lesson is even greater.

We cannot build our national security around ceasefires, memorandums, or international agreements. Our objective must remain clear and uncompromising: Iran’s nuclear program must be dismantled, its ballistic missile program destroyed, and its global machinery for exporting jihadist terrorism eliminated.

This war cannot end while the Islamic Republic retains the capability to build nuclear weapons, launch long-range missile attacks, or arm and direct terrorist proxies across the Middle East and around the world.

Only when those capabilities are gone will the mission truly be complete and the war with the Islamic Republic of Iran be over.

Our security depends on our own strength, our willingness to confront evil, and our faith in God.

Peace comes through strength.

The ceasefire may be over.

The talks may continue.

But the mission has not changed.

The Islamic Republic of Iran must never again have the ability to threaten Israel, dominate the Middle East, or hold the free world hostage.

That mission is far from over. We must have faith in God and the courage to choose the leadership capable of seeing it through.

Prime Minister Netanyahu has proven that he understands the scale of the threat, the resolve to act against it, and the geopolitical brilliance to maneuver in Israel’s best interests.

In my view, Eisenkot, Gantz, Bennett, and Lapid have all demonstrated through both their statements and their conduct during this war that they lack the leadership, strategic clarity, and determination this moment demands. Time and again, they appeared to put political considerations ahead of what I believe were Israel’s long-term strategic interests. At a time when the Jewish people needed unity of purpose and resolve, they repeatedly chose political confrontation over national victory.

Israel cannot afford hesitation, confusion, or leaders who stop short of victory. We need leadership that understands the enemy, remains committed to our national purpose, knows how to navigate the geopolitical minefields without surrendering to pressure, and is prepared to finish the job.

In my view, among the realistic candidates for prime minister today, Benjamin Netanyahu is the only leader who has demonstrated those qualities.

I’m still disappointed that even Netanyahu is not championing the only true path to victory over our jihadist enemies: the deportation of all jihadists from every liberated territory, the full application of Israeli sovereignty over all liberated areas in Gaza, southern Lebanon, and southern Syria, and the resettlement of Jews throughout those regions. The permanent loss of land is the only language of defeat that jihadists understand, and the only way to protect ourselves from their terror. Ultimately, it is up to us to awaken the nation and demand this decisive policy from our leaders. It will happen because there is no other option. Not a question of if it will happen, just a question of when.

Am Yisrael Chai!!!