A MASSIVE UPRISING Is Happening In Iran & IRGC Is TERRIFIED!

Peloni:  I continue to have serious doubts that popular uprisings will bring down the Iranian regime without the central authority centers and personnel being targeted to support such an uprising.

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August 18, 2026 | 1 Comment »

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  1. kaplan* comparative revolutions: nearly every successful revolution had a portion of the military come over to the side of the revolution

    +4 When a ruling regime loses the active monopoly of coercion because a critical portion of its military defects, neutralizes, or turns against it, the probability of a successful revolution escalates dramatically across comparative historical models.Historical Precedents of Military Defection1789 French Revolution: The royal army fractured when the elite Gardes Françaises mutinied and actively joined the crowds storming the Bastille, depriving the monarchy of its reliable local defense force.1917 Russian Revolution: Petrograd garrison units refused orders to fire on striking workers and bread protestors, instead joining the soviets and rendering the Tsar powerless.1979 Iranian Revolution: The regular military declared neutrality and refused to back the Shah after widespread defections and civil unrest broke the chain of command’s willingness to use total force.1974 Portuguese Revolution: The “Carnation Revolution” began directly as a military coup executed by disgruntled mid-level officers (Movimento das Forças Armadas) that the regime could not suppress.Why Military Splintering MattersLoss of State Monopoly: A government cannot sustain power without a loyal instrument to project absolute force against mass resistance.Signaling Effect: When one unit defects, it shatters the psychological illusion of regime invincibility and triggers a cascade of further non-compliance or neutrality within the remaining security apparatus.Resource Redistribution: Rebel factions suddenly acquire trained personnel, heavy armaments, and strategic logistics previously reserved for state defense.If you are analyzing a specific text or framework (such as Crane Brinton’s Anatomy of Revolution or a specific lecture), let me know and I can align the analysis directly with that author’s metrics.

    (That’s also how East Germany fell and the wall came down.)

    And, in Iran, that would be the Immortal Guard led by Crown Prince Pahlavi which has been swelling it’s ranks from the regular army, awaiting the signal to act. See Tousi TV.

    —
    * “Comparative Revolutions from Cromwell to Castro” by Lawrence Kaplan. (I took his course at CCNY (City College of NY) in the early ’90s.)