PELONI: This would be quite a shift, but still, even one third of American Jews voting for Democrats would seem to stretch credulity.
The shift of Jews away from the Democrats is underway.
By | Oct 27, 2026
Image by landrachuk – Pixabay, CC0, Wikipedia
I’ve been the loudest voice saying that the Jewish vote is more conservative than we realize and that we’re being misled by the lack of legitimate polling. But people will always pick up the latest J Street/JDCA poll by leftist Democrats claiming that 78% of Jews vote Democrat and run with it because it fits their prejudices.
Things are changing enough that CNN noted a drastic falloff of Jewish support for Democrats on the generic ballot in New York. Not that surprising since the New York Jewish vote tends to be some of the most traditional in the country. But the generic ballot usually trended Democrat because Democratic congressional candidates would try to appeal to Jews. We’re now in the era of the actively antisemitic congressional candidate like Dariazila Avila Chevalier, who celebrated the Oct 7 attacks, Claire Valdez and their gruesome toady, Brad Lander. No surprise that Jewish support for the generic ballot is crashing.
But a McLaughlin poll claims that overall Jewish support has flipped on the generic ballot.
Among the voters in our survey:
Protestants, who account for 38% of likely voters, favor Republicans for Congress by 51% to 43%, an 8-point advantage.
Catholics, representing 24% of likely voters, favor Republicans by just 48% to 46%, a narrow 2-point margin.
Evangelical Christians, who make up 29% of likely voters and overlap with other Christian categories, support Republicans by 56% to 37%, a strong 19-point advantage.
Jewish voters, representing 4% of likely voters, favor Republicans by a striking 64% to 33%, a potential major shift from historical voting patterns.
Meanwhile, among voters who identify as secular, atheist, agnostic, or religiously unaffiliated, who represent 26% of likely voters, Democrats lead 51% to 43%.
Muslim voters, who represent 2% of likely voters in our survey, favor Democrats by 63% to 37%.
Do I buy that shift? I think the number of Jewish voters polled is too small to put too much weight on it. But the level of everyday antisemitism that has been normalized among leftists is mind-blowing. You don’t have to go far to see Goebbels degree rhetoric. It’s leaking into not just the internet, but social circles and everyday interactions. (This isn’t just limited to leftists, but Jews live in liberal areas and encounter liberals more than anyone else.) I think that there is a growing sea change. I suspect it’s not quite as extreme.
And i think that in many cases, Jews, like black voters in Michigan, are just opting out. They’re not voting Republican en masse, but the reflexive Democrat vote is now dying. Fewer Jews are donating, taking part in activism or even voting for Democrats.
The actual numbers aren’t in and probably won’t be in for a long time (but don’t worry, people will pick up the fake JDCA/J Street “78% of Jews voted for Abdul El-Sayed” numbers anyway out of some degree of antisemitism or just self-hatred and repeat them anyway) but the shift away from Jews forming a core part of the Democrat base is underway.
Yes, maybe it’s too little, too late for some tastes, but we’ll see how much of the electorate covers itself in glory in 2026.
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