IDF assesses that Hamas will use winter weather to press for reconstruction before disarmament
J. Micah Hancock | All Israel News | Published: November 9, 2026
The United States is preparing to deploy approximately 250 soldiers from the International Stabilization Force (ISF), a U.S.-backed, UN-mandated multinational force tasked with helping maintain security and stability in postwar Gaza, Walla News reported.
Military officers from the ISF, accompanied by a U.S. military contingent, were spotted near the Gaza border in recent days, according to the Israeli outlet.
While several countries have expressed willingness to participate in the ISF, including Indonesia, Morocco, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Uganda, and Albania, the Israeli government has also vetoed the involvement of other countries, such as Turkey, which also expressed interest.
Israeli security officials strongly oppose any Turkish involvement in Gaza, citing Ankara’s policies toward Israel, Erdogan’s threats against the Jewish state and Turkey’s support for Hamas. This includes hosting several Hamas leaders and allowing the terror organization to conduct training on Turkish soil.
Israeli security officials are also concerned that U.S. policy toward Israel could shift significantly following the recent midterm elections, in which several politicians critical of Israel won key positions.
“It is not beyond the realm of possibility that the Gaza Division and the Southern Command could wake up one day to discover a foreign multinational force present – one that outnumbers the troops of the Gaza Division itself,” one security official said.
“Israel must be prepared for a number of diplomatic-security scenarios that could have implications on the ground,” the official added.
Meanwhile, the U.S. military has continued to transport vehicles and military equipment to a dedicated base located within the Rafah area, not far from the border with Egypt. This includes trucks, armored personnel carriers, medical vehicles, and armored vehicles equipped with machine guns, Walla reported.
The site in Rafah is reportedly an existing IDF base that has been transferred to the U.S. military for use by the ISF. Guard towers, surveillance equipment, and lighting systems have been installed around its upgraded perimeter fence, while armed U.S. soldiers are currently providing security at the site.
At the same time, engineering work is underway on the “Emirati enclave” in Rafah, a proposed community approved by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The site is intended to host tens of thousands of Palestinians, who are expected to undergo security screening by both the U.S. and Israel.
The pilot community is intended to establish a Palestinian presence outside of Hamas control.
There is currently no timeline for the launch of the community. However, a small group of Gazans is already operating under the protection of an anti-Hamas militia known as the Counter-Terrorism Strike Force (CTSF), led by Housam al-Astal.
CTSF recently claimed to have conducted an operation to locate and eliminate Hamas fighters near Rafah and into Khan Younis in southern Gaza.
Housam al-Astal, leader of the anti-Hamas militia the Counterterrorism Strike Force, says his men carried out a tent purge operation overnight and that it will expand across Gaza, including al-Mawasi in Khan Younis.
He claims no civilians were harmed, that detainees found to… pic.twitter.com/ULzUrNdMlK
— Joe Truzman (@JoeTruzman) November 2, 2026
Israel’s defense establishment recently warned that Hamas is seeking to use flooding and the harsh winter weather to delegitimize Israel’s international standing, even as the group resists calls to disarm, as required by the October 2025 ceasefire agreement.
In a recent meeting, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir presented evidence that Hamas intends to exploit the humanitarian crisis to alter the sequence of events outlined in the ceasefire agreement.
Rather than disarming and allowing the ISF to enter Gaza – a prerequisite for reconstruction under the agreement – Hamas is seeking to pressure Israel into beginning reconstruction before any disarmament takes place. The strategy would allow Hamas to avoid surrendering its weapons in practice while stopping short of outright refusing to give up its weapons.
According to Channel 12 News, a defense official who attended the meeting said, “Much like their ‘starvation campaign,’ Hamas aims to leverage the grim scenes of winter in the Gaza Strip to shift the blame onto Israel, curtail our operational freedom, and buy time to rebuild their military and security capabilities – all while clearly preparing for another war.”
REVEALED: The scandal surrounding Gaza's failed winterization efforts lays bare a grim reality: Hamas obstructed attempts to protect Palestinian civilians before the devastating winter storms that flooded tens of thousands of tents.
Palestinian Authority employees inside Gaza… pic.twitter.com/R6DpI0twPQ
— Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib (@afalkhatib) November 9, 2026
Zamir reportedly instructed the office of the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) to ensure that all humanitarian supplies Israel is obligated to allow into Gaza are delivered without delay, in an effort to mitigate attempts by Hamas to pressure Israel.
U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly pressed Netanyahu to allow reconstruction to begin in Gaza despite Hamas’ refusal to disarm during a recent phone call, Axios reported on Sunday, citing two sources familiar with the discussions.
Israeli security officials remain skeptical that Hamas will hand over its weapons, citing past comments from its leaders that the group’s weapons are central to its existence.
Last week, Gaza Board of Peace member Tony Blair met with Netanyahu, challenger Gadi Eisenkot, and prime minister hopeful Naftali Bennett in Israel. According to Hebrew media reports, Blair encouraged the leaders to move forward with the Gaza Peace Plan.
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