Yossi Baum | X | Mar 25, 2026
Translated by Peloni
1. Iran will be conquered. The matter is settled. This is not a question of if but of when (unless an unforeseen surprise occurs, this will happen in the summer), according to knowledgeable international sources. My impression is that plans for this are already in place and organized. In order not to create a governmental vacuum, the U.S. will hold power and act to transfer it in an orderly manner to whoever is elected by the citizens of Iran.
2. An Israeli base in Somaliland is not “being considered” or “planned.” It is already in much more practical stages (cannot elaborate further). Connect this to the fact that, as of now, the Houthis are still out of the picture in the current war, and you will understand why they are trying with all their might not to join the confrontation at this time.
3. What is the status of cooperation between the IDF and CENTCOM? An unprecedented Israeli-American memorandum of cooperation has been signed. The memorandum will remain in force even years after Trump is no longer relevant. Some will define this as a kind of union between the IDF and CENTCOM.
4. The essence and framework of the cooperation – protection of the regional interests included in the “expanded Abraham Accords,” meaning a maritime and land trade axis from India to Europe through Israel (which I have already elaborated on in the past), including the Gulf states, Saudi Arabia, Africa, the Middle East (Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, as well as Egypt and Turkey) and on to Europe – Cyprus, Greece, and Italy.
The safeguarding of the trade routes and the surrounding interests will be entrusted to joint Israeli and American commands similar to the command in Kiryat Gat.
5. Cooperation will be on the military, intelligence, and political levels. In the military aspect, the emphasis will be on the air forces; in intelligence – across the entire arena; and in the political – for example: to which country to sell Iron Dome and “Arrow” batteries that have proven themselves several times over compared to American defenses.
After Iran, in its desperation, fired missiles at the distant island of Diego Garcia about 4,000 km from Iran, and after it launched such missiles toward all countries in the region, there is an expectation of a rush by Arab states and Europe toward Israeli defense systems that have proven themselves. Such sales will only be made to countries that are partners in the expanded Abraham Accords and/or in the surrounding interests. And this is just one example.
6. Since the entire structure of the agreement is the implementation and preservation of the expanded Abraham Accords and the regional trade routes, the meaning is that Israel becomes a regional power here, with all that implies. The great power of the United States now stands at Israel’s disposal for everything related to our security (and economic) interests.
The web of U.S. security and economic interests included in the agreement is so significant that even if and when a hostile Democratic administration arrives, it may perhaps try to “downgrade” the agreement, but will find it very difficult to cancel it.
7. This is also the reason for reports about the construction of American bases within Israeli Air Force bases. Note: this is not something temporary, as might have been understood from the reports. This is a strategic move that is also intended for a period when Trump will not be “on the ground.” The commands will be joint for Israel and the U.S.
8. And not only in Israel: the CENTCOM base in Qatar is also expected to lose its primacy in favor of a larger and more central base, joint to Israel and the U.S., that will be established in Somaliland and will control the region and the shared interests as stated. With all that implies.
9. In such a space, needless to say, there is no existence for Hamas and Hezbollah, and the Palestinian Authority is also completely neutralized in security terms. No matter how long it takes until we reach this goal – this is where it is heading.
10. Yes, I know this sounds too good. For the skeptics: an endless list of credits of my geopolitical sources, in response to the post.
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