A REVOLUTION IN JORDAN: WHAT DO THEY WANT?

January 19, 2019 | 19 Comments »

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19 Comments / 19 Comments

  1. @ yamit82:

    There are enough billionaires in Israel to invest, also oil extraction companies with revolutionary technologies.. Eventually they will get the kaochas of mind to get it done. In time of real need the Govt. will step in. After all it’s a National Resource. I am not as pessimist,ic as you on this matter. They just don’t need it now, having gas at their doorstep, so to speak and more easily accessible for use and conversion. The pipelines for European exports are gong ahead well etc.

    Did Jordan cancel that $15 Bill gas deal??. haven’t seen anything about it. But the Jordan Govt was celebrating the arrival of EGYPTIAN Gas …..

    Anyway it’s all “gefundene Gelt”……And a few years ago, before all this, Israel was doing well without any expectation of billions falling from the “sky” into Israelt “airspace”………

  2. This article in Arutz Sheva, and a video from Memri from which it is derived, reveal the existence of aa Syrian Mudar Zahran. Watch the MEMRI video in full:

    Syrian opposition activist: ‘Arabs should ally with Israel, Iran is more dangerous’
    Syrian opposition activist and writer Issam Zeitoun said: ‘Notion Israel is tyrannical, arrogant, expansionist, racist state is a lie.’

    Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) reports Syrian opposition activist and writer Issam Zeitoun appeared on a debate about Israel on Al-Jazeera Network (Qatar) on January 16, 2019. Zeitoun said that Israel is an existing country to which some Arabs turn a blind eye.

    Ra’ed Al-Masri, a Lebanese professor of political science and international relations, responded that Israel is “illegitimate and nonexistent.” Zeitoun went on to criticize the Arabs for not accepting the 1947 Partition Plan and said that the notion that Israel is a tyrannical, arrogant, expansionist, and racist state is a lie.

    He said that the idea that Israel wants to expand from the Euphrates River to the Nile is also a fabrication that no Israeli has ever actually said. In addition, Zeitoun said that Israel would have never fought the Arabs if they had never attacked it.

    He added that Pan-Arabism is a “cancer” that has brought the Arab nation to the “verge of annihilation.”

    Saying that Iran is much more dangerous than Israel, Zeitoun stated that an alliance with Israel is absolutely better than the current situation.

  3. @ adamdalgliesh:

    https://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/jordan-awards-oil-shale-concessions-as-it-looks-to-energy-independence-1.705978

    It used to be that the cost of producing a Bbl of oil needed to be below $50. will technological advances it’s now below $40 to make a profit…. Israel developed a patent on technology that reduces profitability even more with lower production costs…. What seems to be holding up Israeli development are environmentalists law suits and results of environmental impact studies.

    It cost the Saudis a couple of dollars to extract a barrel of oil. Israeli shale is a very high-quality oil meaning less refining costs. All of Israeli power plants now have converted to natural gas.
    In the initial stages, both oil and gas production will go to home markets.. Exporting is a problem due to costs and the Big producers so far of shut Israel out due to pressure from Arab competitors.

    We have found some oil in the Med below the gas field finds. Besides major shale oil finds on the Golan there are 2-4 other sites where natural free-flowing oil has been discovered including the Golan.

  4. @ yamit82:

    Israel has over 250 billion tons/barrels? More than 3 times as much as Jordan, on a far smaller territory…..and has the third largest shale reserve in the world. Most of it is just hard to get at. But eventually…likely when most needed, the tech will be found. The history of Israel is like an unfolding scroll, never going back, always progressing forward….. A few year ago, it was announced that the Golan had a lot of oil….. so there are treble reasons for Israel to keep it -and extend sovereignty.

  5. @ yamit82: I didn’t know about Jordanian shale oil, Yamit. Can you tell me more about it? Have they succeeded in selling any shale oil concessions? How economically feasible would it be for oil countries to harvest shale oil deposits. The great expense, I understand, is one reason why development of these reserves in the United States and Canada has been fairly slow.

  6. @ yamit82: The IMF’s demands are certainly a major problem for Jordan’s government, and a major cause of the political instibility in Jordan, because the Jordanians have been forced to raise taxes and fuel prices to pay the debt, and the public won’t accept these tax and fuel price increases.

  7. oil shale in jordan@ yamit82:

    Cui bono???

    Oil shale is Jordan’s most significant natural resource. According to various estimates, oil shale deposits underlie more than 60% of the Kingdom’s territory totaling approximately 40 – 70 billion tonnes, which would make Jordan the 6th richest country in the world in terms of oil shale deposits.

  8. Ted 3-4 of my comments here have disappeared and I suspect it’s your spam filter pls check and post unless duplicates.

  9. @ adamdalgliesh:

    Problem is IMF

    Problems facing Jordan Massive gov debt. massive unemployment especially the young, a million refugees and most of all the IMF!!

    The IMF was originally created in 1945 as part of the Bretton Woods agreement,

  10. There are numerous other articles on AI Monitor covering the protest demonstrations in Jordan over the past six months. But you can’t get access to them unless you are a subscriber, and I am too cheap for that. Could obtain these are articles for our readers here at Israpundit and reprint them? I know you had republished pieces from AI from time to time; perhaps you have a subscription, or can obtain permission to reprint from them.

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  11. This is an important recent (Jan.11) article from AI monitor about the political crisis in Jordan. AI monitor seems to be the only English language website except for Israpundit and the JOC blogs that has been regularly covering the Jordanian protest movement.

    Report slams Jordanian governments for gross failure
    Osama Al Sharif January 11, 2019

    A report issued Dec. 23 by Jordan’s Economic and Social Council (ESC), a governmental advisory body, has stunned Jordanians across the board. Titled “State of the Country,” the 1,500-page document that took one year to complete with the participation of no less than 700 Jordanian experts was seen as an indictment of previous governments covering a period of the past 18 years, until early 2018.

    Its most damning conclusion is that governments have failed to execute their strategies for lack of proper planning and funding in addition to poor human resources. It also concluded that attempts at achieving political and economic reforms had stumbled and that key posts were allocated according to a quota system that favors regional and supplementary identities. The report underlined the absence of a merit system in appointments, in addition to lack of accountability.

    The report examined key government sectors, in addition to reviewing the performance of the legislature, the judiciary, civil society organizations and the state of human rights and political development, among others.

    President of the ESC Mustafa Hamarneh, a former lawmaker with a progressive political agenda, noted in his introduction of the report that the document is the first of its kind and that it aims at giving a full internal audit of government ministries and organizations by reviewing their declared strategies and policies and evaluating their outcome. He added that the diagnostics aim at consolidating the values of justice, citizenship and rule of law in order to improve people’s lives and the quality of services provided to them.

    The report notes that between 2002 and 2018, Jordan adopted nine short- and medium-range strategies to trigger sustainable economic growth, iron out structural disorders in the economy, create jobs and reduce poverty rates. But by the end of 2018, the annual growth rate remained at a modest 2.4% while unemployment had climbed to more than 18%. Total public debt amounted to 28.118 billion Jordanian dinars (about $39.6 billion), marking 96.1% of the estimated gross domestic product at the end of July 2018.

    Hamarneh said that the report reviewed 120 sectoral strategies, noting that some of them had overlapped with others. He added that during the last 18 years, 370 ministers had alternated, of which 257 were new appointees. As a result of repeated failures by successive governments to achieve their goals, the trust gap between citizens and governments had widened, he said.

    He added that the conclusions of the report should be open for public debate, but since it was posted online there has been no reaction from the government to its conclusions. The only response to the report’s review of political reforms in the kingdom came from the Independent Election Commission (IEC) on Dec. 26. In a media statement, the IEC praised efforts spent to produce the report but described its conclusions on political reforms as “lacking in scientific research and relying on general impressions.”

    On Dec. 26, Hamarneh was quoted by Ammon News as saying that the bicameral parliament and the media have also failed to carry out their role of supervision over the government. He also criticized the taxation policy of successive governments, including the current one, which has overburdened the middle and lower classes.

    The publication of the report came on the same day that King Abdullah met with local journalists, including Al-Monitor’s correspondent, to discuss local and regional issues. The king voiced optimism for 2019 citing growth in tourism, resumption of Egyptian natural gas delivery to Jordan, improvement in ties with Iraq and support by Gulf states as examples. “God willing, it would be business as usual once again,” the king said.

    Abdullah said that the kingdom has been through harsh circumstances over the past years, noting, “Some are saying focus is being given to economic reform at the expense of political reform, disregarding the fact that we worked for a long time on thorough political reforms that led to an election law in 2016 that was widely accepted as a modern piece of legislation.”

    But the ESC report provides a less optimistic view of the future and gives low marks to economic and political reforms that were carried out over the last 18 years. Jordanians are also less optimistic. On Dec. 6, market research company Ipsos announced the results of a consumer index poll for the third quarter of 2018, which found that more than 55% of Jordanians had a negative view of the economy. Unemployment, inflation, poverty and absence of social justice were high on the list of complaints. More than 51% complained of poor financial resources.

    Meanwhile, hundreds of Jordanians continued their weekly protests close to the Prime Ministry in Amman for the third month. The protesters want the government to rescind a controversial income tax law that was passed in November, as well as a cybercrime law that will toughen penalties against those accused of spreading hate speech, rumors and others on the internet. Critics say the amendments to the cybercrime law will restrict free speech and criticism of public officials. Many protesters also called for the sacking of the government and lawmakers.

    Reacting to the ESC report, the president of the Center for Defending Freedom of Journalists, Nidal Mansour, wrote Dec. 30 in Al-Ghad daily that the conclusions are shocking. He said that when the report points to major deformities in government institutions and to the spread of nepotism, then there is a need to declare a state of emergency and embrace a strategy to save the country.

    Writing in Addustour daily Jan. 1, head of Al Quds Center for Political Studies Oraib Rantawi noted that Jordanians have reacted differently to the report’s monumental effort. He said many are in a state of denial and refuse to “look at themselves in the mirror for fear of what they would see.” Others, he said, were quick to condemn and attack the report and Hamarneh personally. And there are those who call for change but when confronted with a road map for change they get scared of what the future holds, he added.

    Rantawi praised Hamarneh, who took over the ESC a year ago, for creating “positive engagement” between the council and the government as well as society at large. “Instead of demonizing the report and those who wrote it, we need to launch a serious discussion of its conclusions and recommendations,” Rintawi said.

  12. This is interesting background about the Fourth Circle demonstrations, from a site called “GardWorld,” which professes to be one of the world’s largest private international security firms. They issue alerts concerning possible danger spots for Americans travelling abroad.

    Jordan: Protests expected in Amman January 17 /update 13
    Protests expected in Amman January 17 at Fourth Circle and National Center for Human Rights; heightened security presence and localized traffic disruptions to be anticipated

    Event

    Protests are to be expected in Amman on the evening (local time) of Thursday, January 17, to denounce a recently passed income tax law and other IMF-backed government reforms. Demonstrators are expected to rally near Fourth Circle and police cordons are possible in the vicinity of the gathering. A related protest reportedly began on Thursday afternoon at the nearby National Center for Human Rights, with demonstrators denouncing the arrest of an anti-government protester at Fourth Circle in December 2018.

    Similar protests are to be expected in the capital over the coming weeks. Associated transportation disruptions, along with heightened security measures, are expected in the vicinity of any demonstration. Clashes between protesters and police forces cannot be ruled out.

    Context

    Protests have been held every Thursday since December 13 to denounce IMF-backed austerity measures, a cybercrime law, and current economic and political policies. Critics have claimed that the IMF-backed austerity measures, including a recently passed income tax law, will exacerbate economic inequality in Jordan and disproportionately impact the lower and middle classes. Security forces clashed with protesters during previous protests, using tear gas to disperse crowds. Organizers have indicated demonstrations will continue until the new legislative measures and reforms are reversed.

    Advice

    Individuals in Jordan, particularly those in Amman, are advised to monitor developments to the situation, avoid all demonstrations as a precaution, and adhere to all instructions issued by the local authorities.