Peloni: This is an important interview with Laurie Reagan and Michael Rubin. Recall that Bibi timed his speech at the UNGA with an emphasis on the IMEC to take place just prior to the execution strike on Nasrallah in 2023. The importance of this project has international benefits and consequences which are being ignored by many, but not likely by the nations affected by it. The success of this project will change many things, as explained below.
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Middle East Forum’s Laurie Reagan interviews Michael Rubin regarding the coming import of the the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) and its relevant strategic, economic, and geopolitical implications. Rubin explains that the IMEC is one of the most important yet underappreciated developments in global trade and security, and that U.S. engagement could determine whether it succeeds or is undermined by adversaries such as Iran, Turkey, and China.
The aim of the IMEC is to link a trade route from India to Europe via the Middle East by a specific route whereby products would travel by sea from India to the UAE, by land across Saudi Arabia and Jordan, to Israel’s port of Haifa, to finally arrive in Europe by sea, preferably via Cyprus and Greece. This route would bypass unstable and adversarial states like Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey, reducing Europe’s dependency on Russian & Iranian energy routes while also diminishing Turkey’s control over trade chokepoints.
Rubin goes on to explain that Iran and its proxies, not least of all the Houthis, have purposefully disrupted international shipping as part of their goals to derail the implementation of the IMEC. The IRGC would be at a substantial loss if trade goods bound for Europe actually bypass Iran. Similarly, Turkey stands to lose billions in transit fees and has been actively pursuing its own attempts to undermine the IMEC by its efforts to disrupt trade routes and energy exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean. Rubin notes Ankara’s financial support of Hamas stands alongside that of Qatar and Iran, and specifically warns against allowing Turkish troops into Gaza under the guise of regional stabilization.
Rubin explains that the infrastructure supporting the IMEC is already 90% complete with only the decisions on rail construction in Jordan and final European port destinations remaining to be determined. Rubin argues on behalf of U.S. support for Cyprus and Greece to be named the as the primary European destination of the IMEC, while explaining that this would solidify the regional cooperation among Israel, Cyprus, and Greece, uphold international maritime law, and counter Turkish expansionist goals. Importantly, it would provide the US with the important caveat of simultaneously weaken China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which has been consistently pursuing influence over Mediterranean ports.
Rubin emphasizes the importance of the IMEC goes beyond commercialism as it would additionally strengthen the strategic ties between Abraham Accords nations (Israel, UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and now Kazakhstan) with both India and Europe, forming an alliance countering the authoritarian bloc of Iran, Turkey, Qatar, and China.
In responding to a question about Saudi Arabia, Rubin clarifies that Saudi Arabia is publicly cautious due to King Salman’s declining health, but that it quietly supports normalization with Israel under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, but that Oman plays a double game similar to Qatar’s mediation with Hamas. India’s participation in the IMEC reflects the importance of its shared values and security concerns with Israel, as well as its desire to isolate Pakistan and counter Turkish-Pakistani defense ties.
Meanwhile, Rubin shares that security concerns in the Strait of Hormuz are mitigated by Iran’s dependence on oil exports. It cannot afford to close the strait, something which was made clear during the recent 12 Day War.
Also, importantly, he explains that financing for the IMEC project will come mainly from participating countries and international institutions, not U.S. taxpayer funds.
Rubin concludes with reminding us that the IMEC represents a decisive opportunity for the United States to strengthen democratic alliances, while also countering Iranian and Turkish aggression, and significantly diminishing China’s influence in the Eastern Mediterranean, but only if Washington acts with expeditiously towards making the IMEC a success.
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