T. Belman. This didn’t happen after this article was published but is still expected to happen. Mudar’s article tells you a great deal about the coming transition.
By Mudar Zahran, Secretary General of the Jordanian Opposition Coalition (May 18/22)
Despite Israel’s keenness to protecting the Hashemite regime, and staying out of the messy Arab internal politics, it is now public knowledge that the Israeli intelligence establishment believes that Jordan’s king’s fall is imminent, and Israeli officials have been whispering that in private for a while, desperately discussing ways to save king and keep him in power. Nonetheless, a well-calculated, carefully ushered and wittingly engineered change in Jordan could pose a huge opportunity for US, Israel, our Jordanian people, and all of those who want peace.
No, we are not seeking a total regime change in Jordan, in which the state itself is turned into nothingness, leaving a gap for Islamists to jump in and take over. This was the Obama style, at best, because Obama did not know better, or at worst, because he wanted the Islamists to take over.
The change we desire for Jordan will be simple: Seeing the already irrelevant king leave by a small and peaceful revolution that is protected by the army. The US does not and need not interfere as, this will be an internal Jordanian affair. All the US should do is offer the king a safe exit while Jordan’s army and strong intelligence keep the country intact and the Islamists at bay. This was the case when Egyptians took to the streets against the Muslim Brotherhood, deposed Morsi and the army protected the people, and the outcome: Serendipity, and more secular and peaceful Egypt, under a strong and wonderful man, President Sisi. Worth-noting here, that Jordan’s king does not control the army or Jordan’s intelligence; therefore, he will leave in peace. The US, on the other hand, finances, trains and influences our army and intelligence and could help both secular and patriotic organizations to usher in a moderate interim government for Jordan.
The US and the region could obtain breakthrough advantages from change in Jordan. The first is destroying Jordan’s Muslim Brotherhood. (MB). Jordan’s MB gets its power from the regime – so if the regime falls, the MB falls. Jordan’s own government believes this. This is important because Jordan’s MB is not just another terror group. The global MB HQ is based in Amman and controls Hamas and the global MB as well, especially Qatar’s MB. The US intelligence agencies are aware of this fact. If Jordan’s army -under US help and guidance- ushers in a secular anti-MB leader (like Egypt’s Sisi), that would be a major blow to the MB and the Western globalists forces who support them such as Soros.
The second advantage is ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. If a Palestinian-Jordanian leader becomes the head of Jordan’s interim government, and then Jordan’s president; this means that Jordanians from all backgrounds will have a home, and that 2.1 million Palestinians in the West Bank all holding Jordanian passports, could find a place to call their state.
Next, once the king is out and his theft of public money stops, Jordan will become economically prosperous and attractive for Palestinian refugees in Lebanon, Syria, and the West Bank itself. Meanwhile, Israel and the US could continue to twist the screws on the corrupt and terroristic Palestinian Authority, gradually putting them out of business of killing our people, Israelis, and even other PLO figures. Defusing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will be major blow to the globalists who have blackmailed the world for decades with it, and who remain united against President Trump and his advisor, Jared Kushner’s, effort to usher in real peace.
Another advantage is that a successful change in Jordan will put the region’s radical regimes on notice, Qatar for example. Those will need to end their hostility to Israel and to stop promoting radical Islamism, otherwise face the same music King Abdullah has. This also shall empower moderate regimes, and champions of change, such as the very pragmatic Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Ben Salman, and UAE’s Crown Prince, Mohammad Ben Zayed.
America’s deep and positive influence of Jordan’s army and security agencies means the country will remain safe during the transition, and so will its borders with Israel. In fact, it is this influence that keeps Jordan’s borders with Israel safe, and not the absentee landlord king who spends most of his time in Europe, with documented travel of 30 percent of the year, not counting his year-long private vacations. He is irrelevant to everything and anything in Jordan.
Once a new interim leadership is in power, the first thing it should do is banning all Islamist groups, just like Sisi of Egypt did, and this will mean they will not even have a chance of running for any public office, let alone for president.
Today, such positive change in Jordan will be embraced by several Arab governments who no-longer see Israel as an enemy and in fact would love to see an end to the expensive and obstructive conflict.
This sought for change is the very reason my political party and I proudly took part in the Jordan Option Conference in Jerusalem on October 17, 2017. It is also the reason we are participating in the Zoom Conference on Jordan on May 15th.
Now, for those who do not know much about what is happening in Jordan, they should watch recent videos of Jordanians hitting the king’s photos with shoes in public. This should sum up what is coming. Jordanians are hungry, angry and have lost hope. The Jordanians army could not care less for a powerless king, and the Arab countries of the region are not willing to bail out a king who is openly aligned with Iran against them. Do the math, and you shall see what is coming.
The sweet music of change is playing loud, and we all better be listening.
***
@Peloni, I guess we disagree about Mudar. I believe in free thought, so naturally I will without any malice completely accept that you do not agree with me about him.
@Rafi
Wrong. Perhaps this inflection is representative of your own bias or something else, but it flies well far of the mark of my own interests. In fact, I havy e no interest in wasting my time in supporting something which is either remotely likely or completely improbable, ie grasping at straws as you said. Mudar’s credibility lies in his own consistency of message, his appeal to the better aspects of Western civilization even as it fades in the West, and the fact that the Jordan Option provides a center of stability in a region devoid of certainty which is the foundational plank of what will decide the success or failure of the IMEC.
While the first half of this statement is accurate it is completely irrelevant and unconnected to any the second half, which is a rather relevant point you fail to appreciate.
The Hashemites rule not by the will of the people, nor due to their ties to the tribes, nor because of their own military services. They rule because of the US and Israel supporting their ability to do so.
It is not by chance that the greatest extranational expenditure in US history has been in support of the Hashemites, even while these donatives make only a trivial impact on the squalor in which the Hashemites keep their subjugated Pal subjects, who are ostensibly the focus for this massive aid.
Mudar will replace the Hashemites or he will not, but if he succeeds it will be in cooperation with the very forces which have brought the world to collectively pretend that Abdullah’s hat is a crown, or that he is Jordanian in any sense of the word, and these forces come from the US and Israel, neither of which should have any relevant utility for maintaining the instability in the Middle East which has been the only success that the Hashemites might make claim in their storied century long history of betraying everyone who ever supported them, sometimes all at once.
Changes are taking place across the Middle East, and as indicated in the title of this article, Change in Jordan, Easy, Cheap and Good for Everyone, and this would still be true if Mudar had been forecasting the fall of Abdullah a century ago.
So we will see what comes next, but you are quite wrong to suggest my comments are strung together as a string of false narrative, something which I have stated previously on another topic is not in my manner to do.
@Peloni prior to the symposium Mudar was telling people the King would fall any day now. Whether you tell people for 8 years, 10 years or 15 years that something is happening any day now and it does not occur, that equals lack of credibility, which is the point. You to me appear to be grasping at straws to try and make him somewhat credible.
Mudar has no on the ground militia or military in Jordan (so he has no way to take over in the real world). Yes, he does sound very sympathetic to Israel but that does not equate to the next ruler post Hashmeties whenever that may come (if it does).
@Rafi
This should be regretted by one and all. The Hashemites lack all credibility, violate all obligations, treaty and otherwise, and are in fact simply waiting for the moment in which their ability to strike Israel with impunity becomes possible once again, as described by the former PM of Jordan and Abdullah associate.
His predicted downfall very soon has been predicted now for ten (10) or more years.
This is not true. Ted’s Jordan is Palestine Symposium was in the fall of 2017, less than ten years, not more than.
es the presence of the large, very large actually, US base in Jordan, and the fact that it is the US govt which provides Jordan with the largest aid package, not in the world, but in world history.
This will warrant its own holiday.
Don’t be so certain about this. Who else might provide the US with a trustworthy anti-Islamist ally in Amman, eliminating all Islamists from the 3/5 portion of the Palestine Mandate lands granted to the Arabs? Who might provide a strict rejection of any attempt to revive or support the Islamist credo? Who might be better situated to support the Western interests which are themselves supporting Jordan itself? Mudar is uniquely qualified to satisfy these and other aspects of western interests in Jordan. So as Ted would often say, we will see what happens.
@frrankadam@aol.com
I think you misunderstand the situation as it actually exists in Jordan. Abdullah’s grip on power is not related to Abdullah, his relationship with the tribes or families. It is only due to the US and Israel that the Hashemites hold power in Jordan. The entire political, social and military culture of the Hashemites are subsidized thru US aid, which is the largest aid package, not just in the world, but in world history. So this would counter both your view that dealing with the Hashemites as a hostile regime would destabilize Jordan, as well as your contention that the Hashemites are in power due to tribal ties. Replacing the Hashemites with Mudar Zahran would provide a great deal of reciprocity, finally having a Jordanian govt which acted on the reforms which the US both insisted upon and paid to have put in place. It would also rid Jordan of its Jihadi teachings which continue to this day. It would also end the regime’s toleration of Islamist ideology in Jordan, which again is still present in Jordan. It would end the calls for violence against Israel coming from the Jordanian govt which began the 2021 war of riots and rockets, which was the spark which led to a Hamas rocket attack being coordinated with Israeli Arab pogroms in Israel. It would also end the blood libels against Israel which are still in place to this day coming from Jordan. The only thing which needs to make the Jordan Option operational is the support of Israel and the US, and nothing else matters.
We will see what comes, of course, but your contention that tolerating the multi-layered threat coming from Jordan is the best path forward based on their ties to the tribes is not accurate, or so I do argue.
Okay this article is from two years ago and the King is still in power. His predicted downfall very soon has been predicted now for ten (10) or more years. We all die and most monarchies in the middle east (not all) do eventually get over thrown. The Hashemites have now been around a long time and have survived. They now have kicked the Muslim Brotherhood to the curb so that is a good thing.
Are they a friend of Israel, absolutely not a friend but a neighboring country that basically has a peaceful border. Is the situation perfect? No. Could it be worse? Yes and at one time was much worse with terrorists regularity crossing into Israel. Plus at one time Jordan was in regular military confrontation with Israel.
Someday the King and maybe also his heir may not be in charge of Jordan. Will that be Mudar Zahran? No it does not seem so! He speaks nicely of Israel and cooperation if he were in charge. Pleasant words over many years but zero concrete action or results. Just empty words.
Let the Hashemites hang on as long as they can because – at rising 84 – I remember that things only got worse when the monarchies ie family and tribal ties – broke down and left in: Egypt, Iraq, Yemen and Libya – besides Ethiopia and Iran.
Arab society is medieval religiously and tribal socially. Any voting is pro forma and not respected.
Peloni, I thought about it and you convinced me! I will sit back and wait for things to occur or not silently.
I may advocate for alternative solutions or improvements to Israels situations but I can do this I believe without attacking the JOC people, I believe.
@Peloni I appreciate your comment to me sincerely. So I will consider stopping the requests and critique. But I point to you it is not me who is making them look bad but saying things that are not true or do not occur repeatedly.
@Bear
Neither Mudar nor I would say that we expect the fall of the King in the near future, if we didn’t believe it. From my point of view, I am sharing my belief with the readers of Israpundit, most of whom want updates on progress being made. They are not demanding or recommending that we strop telling them about our expectations.as you are. When I am optimistic I choose to share my optimism. When I lose hope, I will tell everyone also.
Even though my expectations have yet to materialize, I remain hopeful and continue to pursue the goal.
I hope you understand.
@Bear
In fact, the truth he was speaking has never been stated to the EU before or since Mudar did so. This is because only Mudar can speak as the leader of the Jordanians Opposition, as a Pal, to the EU and clarify that when they abuse Israel and support the PA, they are harming the Pals. This message, no matter if it is spoken by an Arab or a Jew, an American or a European, it has no particular gravity when compared to it being spoken by the Pals themselves, and no other Pal has ever actually done so, not at the EU. So as you and your friend, and all the rest of us for that matter, sit back and say Mudar was right, or that he was speaking the truth, we miss the greater victory which Mudar won for us that day, because he spoke as one of the oppressed who was himself a victim of the very oppression which has been subsidized and monetized by the EU against the Pal population. No one else could actually make that statement with any where near the same gravitas and meaning as Mudar did that day. It is not the first time he made such unabashedly honest statements, and it is far from the last time he has made them as well.
Mudar has been a very great and important friend to the Israeli people, and his defense of Israel has been a uniquely powerful one based on rational, relatable, and honest criticisms of Israel’s enemies. This remains true no matter if the JO succeeds tomorrow or if not at all. So when you criticize him, make light of him, or characterize him poorly, recall that you are doing so to a friend and an ally and that your efforts to do so only supports our enemies at the expense of this consistently vocal champion of Israel.
@MST777
The very power which maintains the corrupt king on his fake throne against all odds will be the same power which will see him replaced with a government of the Pals, for the Pals, and by the Pals. Once that is accomplished, the JO will become operational, and rather than creating an vacuum, as you suggest, the very opposite will follow.
Mudar will eject those Iranians who are already present in Jordan, along with the Muslim Brotherhood and all other Islamist ideologues. He will also make it a crime for anyone to preach, teach or subscribe to these Islamist ideologies. Also, the porous Jordanian border, thru which arms are currently being transferred to the Arab insurgents in Israel, will be closed to further arms trafficking and that would include the arms trafficking being directly facilitated by the Jordanian monarchy at present. There are many other benefits to the JO, of course, but these are the ones which directly touch upon your miscomprehension about the JO forming a vacuum in Jordan for Iran or anyone else to fill. The JO would actively create a positive pressure against such things, rather than providing a vacuum.
@Ted okay do not take my advice. Just giving you advice that will not make you a laughing stock. Your choice okay!!
Do not want to shut you up by the way just say things that true and verifiable. You seem to indicate that is not so important to you. Okay we all live by our choices.
Anyway sorry I commented on this again. My friend found Mudar’s claims ludicrous.
Even though we both like what he had to say in Belgium about Israel and Palestinians.
@Bear
Are you saying we shouldn’t say things that we expect happen or that we can’t prove or verify?
Yes, if it doesn’t happen when expected, we lose credibility. For what ever reason, we accept that as a consequence. That’s our choice. Why do you care?
What’s it to you?
Whenever we do that, you are quick to point out that we have been wrong in the past. That’s true but why bother to underscore it. What do you gain by that? Why do you want to shut us up?
Why can’t we give our opinion.
Neither do I.
Suggestion to Ted and anyone else in JOC including Mr. Zahran write ONLY things you can substantiate and can verify. Stop predicting things that are about to happen and do not happen. Stick to the obvious truth. Promote your mission that way and not in way you are doing it. Maybe then it will become credible.
This is meant as constructive. What was said in Brussels was true and sounded good.
A friend of mine who never saw Israpundit, saw a video of Mr. Zahran speaking in front of the European Parliament about Israel and the Palestinians. She thought it was great.
We then discussed Mr. Zahran’s claims of taking over Jordan anytime now for the last what is 15 years perhaps (not sure constantly changing timeline). Her comment was obviously that is not going to happen. She did not understand my irritation and wrote it off as someone is just overly ambitious but reiterated she liked the truth he was speaking about Israel and the Palestinians in Europe.
Read one thing above I wish to comment on.
It is NOT common knowledge that Israeli intelligence believes the King of Jordan’s fall is imminent This type of statement is what I have reacting negatively to for a while. When I read things that to me are obviously untrue, it makes the whole JOC and Mr. Zahran not credible.
@MST777
You are wrong because you didn’t take the trouble to read anything of the Jordan Option.
Upon the abdication of Abdullah, Jordan will become a republic headed by Mudar Zahran.
How the Jordan Option will Impact Israel
Please correct me if I am wrong:
A regime change in Jordan demoting the King will leave a vacuum filled by IRAN !