COVID-19 Models Triggering Economic Collapse Are ‘Garbage’

SEE ALSO:Army Field Hospital in WA Tells Stunning Story of COVID Overreaction

By Michael Austin, THE FEDERALIST

Businesses have been destroyed and countless jobs have been lost because of scientific models predicting that the effects of the coronavirus epidemic would be devastating.

That would’ve been a necessary sacrifice to make, if not for the fact that those models were “garbage.”

That’s the take from prominent conservative and co-founder of The Federalist, Sean Davis, who called out the inaccuracy of models by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation that are used by the White House.

Davis voiced his displeasure with the models in a thread on Twitter.

He posted a chart of the IHME’s astronomical projections of the number of hospital beds that would be needed for coronavirus victims versus the actual need. The IHME predicted the need for hospital beds nationally would top 250,000 by April 10, according to the chart. The actual number was about 50,000.

Sean Davis

?@seanmdav

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The IHME hospitalization models, which were used as the primary basis to shut down America to “flatten the curve,” are garbage. Not only does IHME fail to accurately predict tomorrow, it can’t even accurately predict yesterday, both at the state and national level.

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“The IHME hospitalization models, which were used as the primary basis to shut down America to ‘flatten the curve,’ are garbage,” Davis wrote.

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“Not only does IHME fail to accurately predict tomorrow, it can’t even accurately predict yesterday, both at the state and national level.”

In his thread, Davis ruthlessly critiqued the IHME models for the U.S., Florida, Georgia and Tennessee, all of which were off by huge margins.

For Florida, according to the chart Davis posted, the IHME projected Florida would need more than 10,000 hospital beds by this point in the pandemic. The number is actually about 3,000.

Sean Davis

?@seanmdav

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The IHME state level hospitalization predictions are also garbage. At this point, there is simply no reasonable justification for IHME’s continued refusal to backtest its models. Here’s Florida, for example.

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In Georgia, the picture was similar, according to the chart Davis posted. The projection showed about 8,000 beds would be needed by this point, the actual number is less than 3,000, according to the chart.<
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Sean Davis

?@seanmdavIHME’s doomsday predictions about Georgia have similarly failed to materialize.

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RELATED: Leaked Emails Show Fauci Was Called Hillary’s ‘Doctor Admirer,’ Wanted Hillary To Know ‘We All Love Her’<
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But IHME’s projection for Tennessee was the worst, according to the charts Davis posted. It showed a projected hospitalization that was off by as much as 2,000 percent, Davis wrote.

Sean Davis

?@seanmdav

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IHME’s horrificallly wrong modeling of Wuhan coronavirus-related hospitalization in Tennessee, however, is in a class all by itself. IHME claimed that nearly 12,000 Tennesseeans would be hospitalized as of yesterday. The actual number? A total of 567 people. Only off by 2,000%.

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Tennessee, however, is in a class all by itself. IHME claimed that nearly 12,000 Tennesseeans would be hospitalized as of yesterday. The actual number? A total of 567 people. Only off by 2,000%,” Davis wrote.<
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Davis ended his Twitter thread with a biting final tweet about “made-up and arbitrary” numbers.

“At this point, you could draw your own completely made-up and arbitrary Wuhan coronavirus hospitalization curve in Microsoft Paint, and it would likely be more accurate and maybe even more defensible than what IHME is producing each day,” he wrote.

Sean Davis

?@seanmdav

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At this point, you could draw your own completely made-up and arbitrary Wuhan coronavirus hospitalization curve in Microsoft Paint, and it would likely be more accurate and maybe even more defensible than what IHME is producing each day.

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On the IHME website, the organization lists “Scientific Excellence” as its No. 1 principle. What exactly does anyone think is “excellent” about putting out models that are off by as much as 2,000 percent?<
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In a video posted to the IHME Twitter account only a few hours prior to Davis’ comments, Dr. Christopher Murray, director of IHME, explained why the organization is now insisting the economy stay shut down for the foreseeable future.

The number of deaths attributed to the coronavirus, Murray said, will first have to reach a “very low level” before normal life could return without fear that the epidemic will reignite.

Davis pushed back against these statements as well.

“Having used garbage models as a pretext for shutting down the U.S. economy and destroying tens of millions of jobs, IHME is now shifting to creating garbage models as a pretext for demanding that the U.S. economy stay shut down indefinitely,” Davis wrote.

Sean Davis

?@seanmdav

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Having used garbage models as a pretext for shutting down the U.S. economy and destroying tens of millions of jobs, IHME is now shifting to creating garbage models as a pretext for demanding that the U.S. economy stay shut down indefinitely. https://twitter.com/IHME_UW/status/1249729564768497665 

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We are in the midst of modeling what happens when social distancing measures are removed in the United States and Europe. Our director, Dr. Christopher Murray, explains:

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Many are furious over the inaccuracy of these models, as they should be.<
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The economy of the country, the lives of everyday Americans, their businesses, jobs and life savings were sacrificed based on these very models.

On Friday, Daily Wire host Matt Walsh put it best in a tweet responding to a Twitter post by Washington Examiner managing editor Jay Caruso, who was critical of those who are skeptical of the experts’ endless projections.

“Well, the anger about the models might have something to do with the fact that blind faith in them has resulted in 17 million lost jobs in three weeks,” Walsh wrote. “Might be a reason for folks to be a bit peeved. Just maybe. I don’t know.”

In any scientific inquiry, some level of error is to be expected.

However, IHME models were used as justification to ruin many Americans’ financial futures. Yet the “experts” still expect the country to be shut down based on their studies.

America needs to find new experts to trust. Hopefully, the country is done ruining millions of lives based on this type of “garbage.”

April 15, 2020 | 10 Comments » | 390 views

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10 Comments / 10 Comments

  1. “New York Adds “Presumed” Coronavirus Cases to Its Death Toll – 3,700 New Deaths Added Today in Revised Count
    By Cristina Laila
    Published April 14, 2020 at 5:05pm

    New York on Tuesday decided to add “presumed” COVID-19 cases to its death toll, which reached a total of 10,000 victims.

    Advertisement – story continues below

    On Tuesday alone, 3,700 new deaths were added to the revised death count, according to a report from the New York Times.

    “These new presumed cases are mostly from ERs and hospitals, which means people weren’t getting tested even in those settings. Lots more were in nursing homes or other long-term care facilities,” NY Times reporter Kristen Danis said.

    New York City, already a world epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, sharply increased its death toll by more than 3,700 victims on Tuesday, after officials said they were now including people who had never tested positive for the virus but were presumed to have died of it.

    The new figures, released by the city’s Health Department, drove up the number of people killed in New York City to more than 10,000, and appeared to increase the overall United States death count by 17 percent to more than 26,000.

    But for weeks, the Health Department also had been recording additional deaths tied to the virus, according to two people briefed on the matter. Those cases involved people who were presumed to have been infected because of their symptoms and medical history.

    They were not included in the counts given publicly by Mayor Bill de Blasio because no tests had confirmed that the victims had the disease, Covid-19.

    Officials in California and Seattle said they only included deaths connected to the Coronavirus when the virus was CONFIRMED with a test.

    California has less than 800 Coronavirus deaths while New York has counted over 10,000 deaths related to COVID-19. Perhaps one reason why is how the deaths are being categorized?

    As TGP previously reported, the amount of Americans who are reported to have died from the Coronavirus is based on a CDC coding system that will “result in COVID-19 being the underlying cause more often than not.

    A new ICD code was established to keep track of Coronavirus deaths.

    The U07.1 code will be used for death by Coronavirus infection.

    However, there’s another secondary code, U07.2, “for clinical or epidemiological diagnosis of COVID-19 where a laboratory confirmation is inconclusive or not available,” the CDC guidelines read.

    Is money a motivating factor in over counting COVID-19 cases?

    Dr. Scott Jensen, a Minnesota physician and Republican state senator, told a local station he received a 7-page document coaching him to fill out death certificates with a COVID-19 diagnosis without a lab test to confirm the patient actually had the virus.

    Dr. Jensen also disclosed that hospitals are paid more if they list patients with a COVID-19 diagnosis.

    Gateway Pundit
    Where Hope Finally Made a Comeback.
    © 2020 The Gateway Pundit – All Rights Reserved.”

  2. A bit of perspective. Figures from Worldometer as of today:”3,781,696Communicable disease deaths this year
    141,692Seasonal flu deaths this year
    Quick facts:
    Every year an estimated 290,000 to 650,000 people die in the world due to complications from seasonal influenza (flu) viruses.
    This figure corresponds to 795 to 1,781 deaths per day due to the seasonal flu.
    Sources and info:

    Seasonal flu death estimate increases worldwide – CDC
    Up to 650 000 people die of respiratory diseases linked to seasonal flu each year – World Health Organization (WHO)
    2,214,258Deaths of children under 5 this year
    12,383,225Abortions this year
    90,040Deaths of mothers during birth this year
    41,717,635HIV/AIDS infected people
    489,710Deaths caused by HIV/AIDS this year
    2,392,502Deaths caused by cancer this year
    285,740Deaths caused by malaria this year
    5,790,958,235Cigarettes smoked today
    1,456,265Deaths caused by smoking this year
    728,592Deaths caused by alcohol this year
    312,385Suicides this year
    $ 116,537,982,660Money spent on illegal drugs this year
    393,238Road traffic accident fatalities this year

  3. A bit of perspective. Figures from Worldometer as of today:”3,781,696Communicable disease deaths this year
    141,692Seasonal flu deaths this year
    Quick facts:
    Every year an estimated 290,000 to 650,000 people die in the world due to complications from seasonal influenza (flu) viruses.
    This figure corresponds to 795 to 1,781 deaths per day due to the seasonal flu.
    Sources and info:

    Seasonal flu death estimate increases worldwide – CDC
    Up to 650 000 people die of respiratory diseases linked to seasonal flu each year – World Health Organization (WHO)
    2,214,258Deaths of children under 5 this year
    12,383,225Abortions this year
    90,040Deaths of mothers during birth this year
    41,717,635HIV/AIDS infected people
    489,710Deaths caused by HIV/AIDS this year
    2,392,502Deaths caused by cancer this year
    285,740Deaths caused by malaria this year
    5,790,958,235Cigarettes smoked today
    1,456,265Deaths caused by smoking this year
    728,592Deaths caused by alcohol this year
    312,385Suicides this year
    $ 116,537,982,660Money spent on illegal drugs this year
    393,238Road traffic accident fatalities this year

  4. Ted, please detrash my citations from Worldometer concerning the total number of deaths every year from causes other than coronavirus. It is important that our readers get this perspective. The deaths from other illnesses, automobile accidents and even suicides is greater this year to date than from coronavirus. Even more seasonal flu deaths so fat this year.

  5. April 15 (Reuters) – U.S. coronavirus deaths increased by a record number for the second day in a row, rising by at least 2,371 on Wednesday to top 30,800, according to a Reuters tally, as states spared the worst of the pandemic mulled a partial lifting of restrictions on business and social life by May 1.

    The United States recorded its first coronavirus fatality on Feb. 29. It took 38 days to reach 10,000 deaths and just nine more days to go from 10,000 fatalities to 30,000. The previous high single-day death toll was 2,364 on Tuesday</strong

    https://news.trust.org/item/20200415213634-wt4o0

  6. Dick Morris to Newsmax TV: We’d Have 100K Dead Listening to Biden on Coronavirus

    President Donald Trump’s response to the coronavirus pandemic in the United States likely saved thousands of lives, according to political consultant Dick Morris on Newsmax TV.

    “If we had not had that travel ban with China and with Europe and with Britain, and had we listened to the World Health Organization and Joe Biden, we would have almost 100,000 dead bodies on our hands, actually 70,000 more than we have now,” Morris told Wednesday’s “Spicer & Co.”

    In other words the closure’s and social distancing are saving lives. They have allowed hospitals in the USA to learn how to fight the virus and ramp getting supplies. They are experimenting with different treatment medicines and are working on a vaccine/

  7. Ted, I’ve noticed a certain pattern. On several occasions, immediately after one of my comments is trashed, a comment by Bear “answering” it is published under the same article. The result is that Bear’s perspective on recent reports gets published, while mine does not.

    Is Bear allowed to censor what is published on this subject in Israpundit? It is a painful and awkward question, but I need to ask it.

  8. Ted, I have noticed we have a paranoid delusional commentator who has recently undergone a name change Shmuel from Adam. Ted, you you should mention to Adam, that my comments also get trashed sometimes because of something in the software. It can be annoying but anyone rationale and not delusional knows it is not a conspiracy to silence me.

  9. More good news: Taiwan reports zero new coronavirus cases again
    For second day this week, Taiwan announces zero new cases of Wuhan coronavirus

    By Keoni Everington, Taiwan News, Staff Writer2020/04/16 14:34
    CECC head Chen Shih-chung. (CDC photo)
    CECC head Chen Shih-chung. (CDC photo)
    TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Taiwan’s Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC) on Thursday (April 16) announced that for the second time this week there are no new cases of Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) to report.

    During his daily press conference on Thursday afternoon, Health Minister and CECC head Chen Shih-chung (???) announced there were zero new coronavirus cases detected in the country that day. Following an announcement of zero cases on Tuesday, this is the second time this week that Taiwan has announced no new cases of the disease.

    Prior to Tuesday’s announcement, Taiwan had gone 36 days with at least one new case. The vast majority of cases reported over this period were imported from other countries as Taiwanese citizens fled from hotspots in Europe, Asia, and North America.

    There were fears these imported cases would bring a second wave of domestic infections to the country. Fortunately, it appears the CECC’s efforts at quickly identifying, isolating, and tracing contacts of confirmed cases have held the virus at bay for now.

    Out of Taiwan’s total count of 395 cases, 340 were imported from abroad and 55 were contracted locally. Of the confirmed cases, six have succumbed to the disease, while 155 have been released from hospital isolation.

  10. “Japan now has over 9,000 coronavirus infections confirmed including about 700 from the Diamond Princess, a cruise ship operated by a U.S. company that was quarantined near Tokyo in the early stages of the epidemic in Japan.” From the Japantimes.com website for today. The Japanese government has declared a “state of emergency” nationwide because of an “alarming increase” in confirmed cases. How to enforce the “state of emergency” will be left to provincial and local authorities, however. No national lockdown has been ordered.

    For a nation of over 100 million people, 9,000 cases is miniscule compared to the U.S. rate.

    However, voluntary compliance with recommendations from the health ministry have led to most bars and restaurants closing down for lack of customers. Most companies seem to have furloughed all but essential workers, so that unemployment is at a high level. Industrial production is way down. A sort of de facto voluntary lockdown, since Japanese have more trust in government than Americans and don’t have to be forced to follow government recommendations. There never was a Japanese Revolution.

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