Arlene Kushner | September 25, 2026
Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay
It has hardly been a secret that Turkey, headed by president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is problematic and represents a threat to Israel.
Erdogan has expansionist plans for Turkey. These are frequently referred to as his desire to re-establish the Ottoman Empire, but what has been made clear by military analysts is that we are looking at a good deal more than some vague pipe dream of returning to the situation pre-WWII. He has solid weaponry and plans for step-by-step encroachment towards Israel.
Consider this from David M. Weinberg, senior fellow at the Misgav Institute for National Security & Zionist Strategy (emphasis added):
“Erdogan is a true-blue believing antisemite of the old school, who considers classic antisemitic myths like the Protocols of the Elders of Zion…truth. He honestly hates Jews and Israelis, and he openly seeks to lead a pan-Islamic coalition to crush Israel – while remaining a member of NATO.
“Erdogan is anchoring a Sunni alliance of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Qatar (with some Egyptian role too) that has a malodorous anti-American and anti-Israeli scent.”
Weinberg cites “a very senior Israeli intelligence official”:
“Unless Israel draws concrete red lines in Syria and the eastern Mediterranean, the Turkish army and navy will further encroach upon Israel’s northern and maritime borders. Israel could find itself facing Turkish tanks on the Golan Heights and Turkish frigates off the coast of Caesarea.”
https://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/israel-red-lines-turkey-syria-golan/
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The Turkish navy has tens of frigates, destroyers, and amphibious landing craft, as well as 12 submarines. It has a large, experienced army and one of the largest and most experienced air forces in NATO. Turkey’s fleet of 270 F-16s is the third largest in the world, trailing only the US and Israel.
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Since the fall of Assad over a year ago, Turkey has been encroaching on Syria. First it was in the cities of Latakia and Tartus. Some months later, Turks had deployed in Aleppo province. With Turkish reinforcements came engineering equipment as army installations were established.
https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/08/23/turkey-cements-military-economic-grip-over-syria/
Israel has been monitoring this situation with considerable concern. Reports Itai Ilnai:
“In July 2025, Ankara delivered an unusual present to Ahmed al-Sharaa’s Syrian army – a batch of four advanced, brand-new armored personnel carriers produced domestically. For several weeks, the IDF Intelligence Directorate…was consumed with tracking these APCs across the vast Syrian landscape. Ultimately, the armored vehicles were pinpointed…Since that moment, they have remained under intense surveillance.
“This episode, unfolding more than a year ago, is merely a symptom of a far broader regional trend. Turkey has steadily cemented its military and diplomatic footprint in Syria, operating under Israel’s watchful gaze.
“(Until a week ago) Israel gritted its teeth and exercised restraint. Whenever it did intervene, it maintained a strictly clandestine profile…
“(Now) Israel’s top echelon appears to have recognized that abandoning the flawed containment strategy – a doctrine that dominated every front until October 7 – is equally applicable to the Turkish juggernaut.”
https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/08/22/israel-strikes-turkish-military-buildup-syria/
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In mid-August, the IDF had acquired intelligence that Turkey was seeking to station a radar and an air defense system manned by Turkish troops in the Abu al-Duhur air base in Idlib, about 70 kilometers from the Turkish border; it was meant to interfere with Israel Air Force operations in the north. There were several warnings delivered by Israel to Syria at the highest levels in an attempt to prevent this from happening. In permitting the Turkish operation, Syria was about to breach an agreed security status quo.
When there was no response, Israel decided to respond directly (emphasis added):
“Eight hits targeted the runway and military facilities of the Syrian air base on August 18. No casualties were reported.
“Israel did not wait for Turkish troops, aircraft, radar or air defense systems. It destroyed the infrastructure required to receive them before the threat became entrenched. The operational rule is denial before things are entrenched. Before Turkish troops arrive, the target is infrastructure; once they arrive, striking it also risks Turkish casualties, retaliation, American intervention and confrontation with a NATO member.”
Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that “We will not tolerate a Turkish military entrenchment in Syria that threatens Israel. Apparently, they didn’t hear it clearly enough, so we made sure they understood it better.”
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-906025
Said Defense Minister Yisrael Katz: “Erdogan was caught with his hand in the cookie jar and was forced to back down.”
See more:
https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/08/22/israel-strikes-turkish-military-buildup-syria/
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Israel’s action has been broadly praised here. A new, more stringent policy is essential in the face of Turkish hegemonic plans. And so, in any event I would have wanted to write about this.
But I was more strongly motivated because of a statement put out by US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack, who theorized that Israel “might just have been baiting Turkey, that it’s a very aggressive but maybe a well-received pre-election concept.” That is, Syria was attacked to garner votes for Netanyahu in the coming election.
I have provided solid background on the situation but respond further here: Poppycock.
He went further, claiming that “the Turks, their intelligence agency, their hierarchy, their foreign minister, the president, the head of intelligence, all are concentrating on restraint.” You be the judge, my friends.
Please, share this post with those who might have been influenced by Barrack’s charges.
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A follow-up: I return to the matter of Jared Kushner’s meeting with Hamas a week ago Sunday, August 16. After that meeting, US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee – responding to criticism by bereaved families – said we shouldn’t be distressed, because Jared was tough and delivered an ultimatum to Hamas.
My response was that an ultimatum has consequences and it did not appear that Jared provided any:
On Monday, August 17, Jared had been interviewed on Fox News. He said that if Hamas doesn’t fulfill its commitments now, “everyone will see that it’s not serious about peace, and then Israel will have much greater support from the United States and other countries to move forward and finish the job properly”.
https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/hamas-could-disarm-month-kushner-says#
And it was not my impression, based on Jared’s own words, that he had promised that this day is coming soon. Saying that Israel will receive “much greater support” is a rather nebulous statement.
Additionally, it is not just the US that is involved. The “mediator” states that accompanied Jared in his meeting with Hamas’s Al-Hayya – Egypt, Qatar and Turkey – are direct participants in the matter. It is impossible to believe that they would seriously give Israel the go-ahead to take out Hamas.
I think one of the major matters still to be explored is the process by which these problematic states came to be “mediators.” If you have just read the scoop on Turkey, above, you can grasp quite solidly the outrage of treating Turkey as “mediator.”
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In point of fact we see quite the reverse (emphasis added):
“Hamas is exerting intensive pressure on the mediating countries, demanding that they accuse Israel of violating the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, Channel 12 News reported. The pressure peaked over the weekend, when Hamas demanded a public statement against Israel.
“An assessment by the defense establishment found that the move is driven by two main motives. The first is an attempt to prevent the organization from being disarmed in Gaza, a process that was supposed to begin but remains stalled.
“The second is to create advance legitimacy for intensifying attacks against IDF troops operating in Gaza…”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/432091
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This past Sunday (August 23), a full week after Jared had met with Hamas, Channel 12 released an “exclusive report” regarding the meeting with Hamas. (Emphasis added)
“According to two sources present at the meeting, Kushner told Hamas representatives in front of all mediators: ‘The real test will be implementation. If you try to deceive us, the process will stop, and no one will stand in Israel’s way’…
“According to the report, the meeting was prompted by intelligence shared with the United States and mediators suggesting that elements within Hamas were planning to avoid full implementation of commitments to disarm and dismantle their military capabilities.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/432122
“Intelligence shared with the US” would mean by Israel.
If, before receiving this intelligence, Jared was truly of the impression that Hamas might fully cooperate in disarming he is even more naïve than we imagined. Of course they are going to deceive and avoid full disarmament.
This report – which projects a different image from the earlier one I cited – placed Jared’s statement in quotes, indicating it was a direct citation. If Jared’s words were cited accurately by the two unnamed “sources”, they are certainly tougher than the direct statement I relied upon previously.
I am not ready to hold my breath yet but will welcome any genuinely good news that might emerge as we follow this going forward.
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There will be many factors to consider. This is a vastly complex situation because of the parties involved and the details of the plan as presented by Trump.
[] I suspect a good deal will depend on Trump’s perception of what plays best before the midterm elections. Threats can be made, demonstrating a necessary toughness, and then not implemented.
[] Hamas is going to continue to insist that they are adhering to the agreement and Israel is not. Remember that Israel has not accepted Trump’s recent 15-point plan.
[] There exists a very strong likelihood that the “mediators” will play both sides at the same time. They might, for example, insist that Hamas disarm, but arrange terms of disarmament so that Hamas would have access to their weapons down the road, or insist that weapons for self-defense must be retained.
[] Then there is the question of stringent verification: how will it be determined if Hamas is adhering to its commitments? Without this, is it not all a charade?
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What remains exceedingly important is that Israel retain vigilance and a tough stance.
For example, there is the matter of kites from Gaza. Again. In the past, multiple kites and balloons bearing explosives or incendiary material that ignited fires were released from Gaza into Israel. They caused damage to nature land and farms. Over the last several day six kites launched from Gaza were found in Israel; none were carrying problematic material. But the first kites released in the past, perhaps as preliminary trials, did not carry problematic materials either.
“Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz warned Hamas on Sunday night that if kites launched from Gaza do not stop immediately, the Israel Defense Forces will increase targeted strikes against those responsible and evacuate residents from areas used as launch sites.
https://www.jns.org/live/breaking-news#000001a0-2fd0-db4d-affc-7fd4f2df0000
There must be follow-through on these words. Stop immediately.
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I ask, as I always do, that you please pray. Pray hard for Israel’s strength.
©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
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