Arlene Kushner | March 24, 2026
Iran missiles destroy buildings and cause injuries in Dimona, Israel . Screengrab via Youtube
Our situation, which was already difficult, has now become deeply confusing and unsettling. Please read through to the end and share.
Last week was exceedingly stressful. We are being bombarded by missiles both from Iran and from Hezbollah in Lebanon. The north and center of the country had been getting the worst of it until a couple of days ago (see following). But even here in Jerusalem, we are confronted with exhausting situations. Sirens repeatedly send us into our safe places: whether public shelters, shelters in the basements of apartment buildings, or private safe rooms in newer apartments
From within these shelters, we can hear the enormous boom when the missile is intercepted. Danger persists for some time after because of residual flying shrapnel and the possibility that what was intercepted was a cluster missile, which scatters multiple small bombs.
Missiles are often launched at night, and we are jarred awake. We are a very sleep-deprived nation. Some Israelis find their lives curtailed as they are reluctant to go very far from home. Others go out but are mindful of the constant need to identify safe places for securing shelter. This generates stress.
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On Saturday night, attacks were aimed at our south. A hit in Dimona caused the wounding of 31 people. This was followed by an attack in nearby Arad (pictured), where 84 people were wounded, 11 seriously.
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All in all, there have been more than 20 Israelis killed; over 3,000 have been hospitalized with injuries.
I share all of this now as background, so that there might not be any misunderstanding about what we are dealing with. Yet with it all – and that is my point here – no cry has gone up in Israel for the war to end so that we might resume a normal life. To an extraordinary extent, the civilians of Israel are resilient and remain supportive of our war against Iran.
We get it: we understand the consummate evil of the Islamist regime and the existential threat it represents for Israel. As obtuse as much of the Western world is, we understand that Iran is a threat to these nations as well, and that what we are doing serves a larger purpose.
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Let it be said that we have been immensely grateful to President Trump, who seemed to get it and to be intent on taking down Iran. In all of history I doubt that there has been the sort of close cooperation we have witnessed between our armed forces and those of the US.
Pres. Trump gives press conference following announcement of SCOTUS ruling against his use of tariffs. Screengrab via Youtube.
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While the regime in Iran has not collapsed – which fact has been a bit bewildering considering the extensive beating it has been receiving from Israel and the US and the number of its leaders who have been taken out – there have been signs of it weakening.
We have been enduring a growing number of attacks from Iran, but there are analysts who indicate that this this increasingly vociferous behavior is actually a sign of Iranian panic and not strength. The piece below by Iran expert Beni Sabti merits careful attention. Sabti, who was born and raised in Iran, is associated with the Institute for National Security Studies.
“Three weeks into the war and…it sometimes seems as though the Iranian regime has not buckled and is standing firm. This is an image broadcast through Iranian propaganda channels, and – regrettably – many researchers and commentators in Israel and the West have embraced it, simply because they lack patience. But if we measure a state’s durability against real economic, Western, and structural benchmarks, it becomes clear that the regime is in serious trouble and is standing on the brink…
“What observers in the West – or among certain commentators – interpret as regime ‘resilience’ (the ability to survive sanctions, internal protests, and external pressure) is, in fact, an advanced stage of structural disintegration…
“…one should not confuse Tehran’s cruelty and stubbornness with genuine ‘resilience.’ The system is undergoing self-cannibalization, consuming the state’s resources to keep the ruling structure alive, inevitably leading to a breaking point.” (Emphasis added)
Ben Sabti. Screengrab via Youtube
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There are several indications of the weakening of the regime.
Two weeks after Mojtaba Khamenei was chosen to officially replace his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, there has been no evidence of his presence. Intelligence agencies describe this situation as “beyond weird,” as they speculate on whether he is even alive, never mind whether he is running the country – an unlikely prospect at this point. The question then is precisely who is running things. This situation hardly suggests regime stability.
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Most of the Gulf countries that had cautioned President Trump not to launch a war against Iran…are now urging Washington to continue striking the regime.
“…there is a desire among Gulf countries — particularly the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar — to ensure that Iran comes out of this war with its military power sufficiently degraded to cease posing a threat to them.”
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On Sunday, Israel’s ambassador to the US Yechiel Leiter indicated (emphasis added):
“Small units within Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and Basij militia have reportedly begun refusing to report for duty, signaling emerging cracks within the regime…
“The edifice of this tyrannical regime is cracking. It has not opened up to wide chasms yet, but that’s the direction it’s going.” The morale of the armed forces was also being degraded, he said.
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-890869
The wisest course of action in light of the weakening of the Iranian regime is patience accompanied by increased military pressure by Israel and the US.
Iranian-born political scientist Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is among those who see it this way:
“For decades, Iranian leaders grew accustomed to Western caution, diplomatic hedging, and carefully measured statements designed to avoid escalation. They learned that repression at home would provoke criticism but rarely consequences. They learned that terrorism abroad would be condemned but tolerated. They learned that nuclear deception would lead to negotiations, not punishment…
“Never, since Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s 1979 Islamic Revolution, has the clerical system faced such a convergence of internal rebellion, economic collapse, military vulnerability, and psychological defeat. Never have the mullahs appeared so exposed and so afraid of their own population. This historic weakening is the outcome of sustained pressure…
“…this moment is not the time for hesitation or compromise, but to intensify pressure. History shows that authoritarian systems often survive not because they are strong, but because their opponents become impatient, divided, or discouraged too early.” (Emphasis added)
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/22227/iran-beginning-of-the-end
Dr Majid Rafizadeh Speaking at the United States Congress. By Valter Schleder – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikipedia
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This last paragraph should be heeded diligently.
That Israel continues to be on track is clear. Just five days ago, Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir indicated that Israel was not even halfway through the operation, and that we would keep going as long as necessary. High level commanders agreed broadly that the offensive should not be stopped at this stage.
And a mere three days ago, we were under the impression that Trump was similarly on track:
“Israeli assessments indicate that the US is not expected to end the war before there is a clear understanding that its objectives have been achieved…most signs point to preparations for the next stages of expanding the fighting and striking new categories of targets.” (Emphasis added)
https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/03/21/rising-possibility-of-us-raid-in-iran/
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But as of yesterday (Monday), Trump has done a stunning turnaround that leaves us startled, and quite frankly, angry (I speak for myself and many others).
In order to understand what happened on Monday, we need to backtrack.
Roughly three weeks ago, Iran began to selectively block maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, utilizing missile and drone attacks on some ships. This created great instability in the price of oil, much of which comes through the Strait. And this in turn has generated distress regarding the war with Iran in the international community and within the US. Trump sought to mitigate the problem by such actions as releasing oil held in storage. He was severely disgruntled by the refusal of the Europeans to cooperate in working to open the Strait, or in accompanying ships through.
On Saturday, Trump threatened, via his Truth Social platform, that if Iran didn’t fully open the Strait within 48 hours, the US would “hit and obliterate Iran’s various power plants, starting with the biggest one first!”
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I was disturbed by this over-the-top threat by Trump. First, because taking down all power plants in Iran (or even most) would cause great suffering to the people of Iran, whom he was supposed to be helping. What is more, the hope is that a new regime would replace the current one. But it would be inordinately difficult for such a new regime to establish governance under such circumstances.
It must be noted here that a day before he made this threat, he had written that the US is “getting very close” to meeting its objectives and is considering “winding down” military efforts in the Middle East.
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-890706
But if he was eager to wind down, why make such radical threats some 24 hours later? What is more, there were reports that he had been considering a less radical option for solving the Hormuz situation:
On March 21, the very same day that he made his threats regarding obliterating Iranian power plants, there was this report: “…there are growing indications of a possible deployment of US ground forces in the war in Iran, aimed at reopening the strait to tanker and commercial shipping traffic. Reports in the US media present this option as a limited operational move…”
https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/03/21/rising-possibility-of-us-raid-in-iran/
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The situation does not add up for me. And there is yet more: On Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in the course of an interview, defended Trump’s threats on Iran, saying, “Sometimes you have to escalate in order to de-escalate.”
Donald Trump is playing games, and it’s difficult to know where he is going.
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By Sunday, in response to Trump’s threats, Mohammad Ghalibaf, speaker of Iran’s parliament, writing on X, indicated that it would totally close the Strait of Hormuz and “irreversibly” take down energy infrastructure throughout the region [that means Israel and the Gulf states] should its power plants be attacked.
Tehran Mayor, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf at Tasnim News Agency headquarters. By Tasnim News Agency, CC BY 4.0, Wikipedia
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Yesterday (Monday), just prior to his two-day deadline to Iran to open the Strait, Trump dropped his [figurative] bombshell: His key negotiators, Witkoff and Jared, had been meeting with Iranian officials for two days, starting Saturday night:
“I am pleased to report that the United States of America and the country of Iran have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.
“Based on the tenor and tone of these in depth, detailed and constructive conversations, which will continue throughout the week, I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions.”
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There are essentially two reasons for my anger at this announcement.
First, I have made the case above that the regime is cracking and that what is necessary now is a maximum of pressure. But instead, Trump is offering Iran credibility and a way out. This would constitute a huge failure, which Trump would claim as victory, since he is “a man of peace.” He will have lost an enormous opportunity.
The second is his betrayal of Israel, and Prime Minister Netanyahu specifically. A little over two weeks ago: “US President Donald Trump told The Times of Israel…that a decision on when to end the war with Iran will be a ‘mutual’ one that he’ll make together with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.”
But when it suited him now to move toward an end to the war (as he imagines it), he decided to not to even inform our government about the negotiations.
When he spoke about finally informing us, what he said was “I spoke to Israel a little while ago.” Israel. Not “my friend Bibi.” He was distancing himself from us. And then he said, “I think they will be very happy…” This was a third person statement that was intended to suggest that “Israel” said we would be very happy… But that was not the case.
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What Netanyahu subsequently said in a statement yesterday evening was diplomatically cautious.
“Earlier today, I spoke with our friend, President Trump. President Trump believes there is an opportunity to leverage the tremendous achievements we have reached alongside the U.S. military to realize the goals of the war through an agreement, an agreement that will safeguard our vital interests.
“At the same time, we are continuing to strike in both Iran and Lebanon…
“We will safeguard our vital interests under all circumstances.” (Emphasis added)
https://www.gov.il/en/pages/spoke-interest230326
Unless and until a deal is signed Israel will keep fighting with full force, and cooperation with US military will continue as before.
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When the news first broke, the Iranians called it false news and said there were no negotiations. A subsequent report said that Ghalibaf actually approached Witkoff. Apparently negotiations are taking place in Pakistan, with Ghalibaf taking the lead for Iran. I would like to examine in some detail what is transpiring and what the respective positions are. But, as is often the case, there are conflicting reports and great confusion regarding details. Much of this will have to wait until there is further clarity.
What I can state with some certainty is that Trump, in his typical hyperinflated style, has distorted or exaggerated some details, and made some statements that are simply erroneous.
Trump says that the fact so many members of the regime have been eliminated constitutes regime change. This is a nonsensical claim. New members of the same regime stepping into the places of those who have been taken out does not constitute a new regime. And let us not forget the power within this regime held by the IRGC. Trump claims Ghalibaf is the new man in charge. Not sure this is true. The Middle East Forum has identified him as an “unrepentant hardliner” with big ambitions. I would guess that he can run rings around Witkoff and Jared.
To hear Trump tell it, in the two plus days of the opening “intense” negotiations 15 points were already agreed upon and so the possibility of reaching a successful conclusion is great. This is simply not the case. A host of analysts and individuals privy to what is transpiring say the two sides are quite far apart, rendering the chances of successful resolution small.
Israel does not have high expectations of a successful conclusion. What Israel is most concerned about is that Trump might be so eager for that negotiating success – which would solve a lot of problems for him – that he might make concessions that should not be made.
I do not even want to think about what happens if Trump makes a deal Israel cannot live with and Trump demands we stop attacking so that the deal can be finalized.
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I will ask, as I often do, that you stay tuned for more.
And I ask, as I always do, that you please pray.
©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
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