Arlene Kushner | Feb 18, 2026
Sec. of State Marco Rubio at Munich Security Conference. Screengrab via Youtube
After weeks of confusion and mixed messages, there is now more clarity regarding what President Trump is likely to do concerning Iran.
For some period going forward he will probably continue to pursue negotiations (see following). Perhaps he is giving it his best shot because a deal truly would be his first choice. Or perhaps his goal is to demonstrate to the international community (and most specifically the Gulf states) that he tried his best to resolve the conflict peacefully before resorting to a military option.
Yet, even as he sends his envoys to negotiate, I think he understands that it is exceedingly unlikely that the regime will come through with the basic demands of the US.
The best indications of what we can expect going forward have been advanced not by Trump but rather by members of his government and a senator.
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Secretary of State Rubio, speaking at the Munich Security Conference on Sunday, provided a clear-eyed assessment (emphasis added):
“We’re dealing with radical Shia clerics and people who make geopolitical decisions on the basis of pure theology.”
“It’s a complicated thing. No one’s ever been able to do a successful deal with Iran, but we’re going to try.”
https://www.jns.org/rubio-on-iran-complicated-to-negotiate-with-radical-shia-clerics/
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Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) was here in Israel a day later, on Monday, and met with top Israeli leaders.
Sen. Lindsey Graham meets with PM Netanyahu. Screengrab via Youtube.
The good senator, who is said to be close to the president and is a staunch friend of Israel, seemed to echo much of what we have been hearing from Trump, but one message predominates:
“There are two lines in the water right now. One’s the diplomatic line, trying to find a way to end this regime diplomatically that will advance our national security interests. The other line is the military option.”
But wait! Did he actually mean to say, “a way to end this regime diplomatically”? Was this a Freudian slip? There is no way to do this diplomatically.
Then he commented (emphasis added):
“I think President Trump is looking for which line can catch the biggest fish… we’re … weeks, not months, in terms of decision making.”
It is quite clear which line can catch the biggest fish.
Then, finally:
“I am hopeful that diplomacy may prevail yet. Either way, our date with history, our date with the new destiny for the Mideast, is upon us. I am leaving here confident in the capability of the United States and Israel, if called upon, to deliver a decisive blow to the Iranian regime.”
According to JNS, “Graham said there was no daylight between U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu when it came to Iran, and ‘about what to do and how to do it.’”
Declared the senator, “We’re on the verge of eliminating the largest state sponsor of terrorism in the region.”
https://www.jns.org/sen-graham-reassures-israel-trump-netanyahu-are-of-one-mind-on-iran/
This rather says it all.
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On Monday night Ambassador Mike Huckabee participated in a Town Hall meeting at the Begin Center, which I attended. He is far too astute a politician to over-step his bounds as an emissary of the president and declare openly what Trump has not said yet. But in his own inimitable style, both sharp and charming, the message seemed clear.
For example, he was queried by a member of the audience about the president’s failure to act after promising the people of Iran he would be there for them. His response, “The president keeps his promises.”
Ambassador Mike Huckabee. Screengrab via Youtube
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Recently, Trump announced that he was ordering a second armada to the Middle East, and, indeed, he has deployed the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier (pictured below).
There has been speculation that he is utilizing this deployment as a bargaining technique, to push Iran towards a settlement: he has warned of ‘something very tough’ if the talks fail.
But the expense of deploying this armada is enormous. In total we are looking at approximately one-third of the actively deployed US Naval fleet now assembled in or headed towards the Middle East. This flotilla includes “two aircraft carrier strike groups, 15 destroyers, and an unknown number of submarines.”
Some 50 F-22 fighter jets are also being deployed to the area.
I strongly suspect that this is well over the top in terms of what a negotiating ploy would look like.
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It is possible, then, that Trump delayed attacking after he made his promise to the Iranian demonstrators because he wanted to bring in additional military equipment first. If he does attack, he wants to be certain that he has maximized the chances for success.
Yesterday, responding to press queries, Trump said that Iran wants to make a deal: “I think they want to make a deal. I don’t think they want the consequences of not making a deal. They want to make a deal.”
However, “in case we don’t make a deal, we’ll need it…If we need it, we have it ready. A big, a very big force.”
Asked how confident he is that the negotiations with Iran will be successful, the President replied, “I think they’ll be successful, and if they’re not, it’s going to be a bad day for Iran, very bad.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/422528
“Sometimes you have to have fear. That’s the only thing that really will get the situation taken care of,” the president observed.
The implication is that a show of force will lead to successful negotiations. But last Friday, Trump said that regime change in Iran “would be the best thing that could happen.” (Emphasis added here and above.)
https://www.jns.org/trump-iran-regime-change-best-thing-that-could-happen/
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Reportedly, the president is considering options that would include sending American commandos to go after certain Iranian military targets.
“The US military is preparing for the possibility of sustained, weeks-long operations against Iran if President Donald Trump orders an attack, two US officials told Reuters…”
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A second meeting between the US and Iran was concluded in Geneva yesterday (Tuesday); it lasted about three and a half hours and was conducted indirectly, with participants in different rooms, passing messages. Participating were Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (pictured), and US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, with Omanis mediating.
Abbas Araghchi. Photo by Tasnim News Agency, CC BY 4.0, Wikipedia
From the Iranian side there were glowing reports about the progress that was made, but I will not belabor details here. For what was discussed was primarily the nuclear weapon issue, with the Iranians demonstrating some flexibility but expressing resistance to international inspections. There was no substantive discussion of the issue of ballistic missiles or support for terror organizations – both of major concern to the US (and, of course, to Israel). Nor was there talk concerning the violence directed against protestors.
The Iranians conveyed an eagerness to see the US begin to lift sanctions immediately as a gesture of good faith.
One US diplomat described the process as “One step forward and two hiding behind.”
The Iranians advanced the idea of returning in two weeks with details of a proposal. However, “there was no confirmation of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s claim that the parties had reached
understandings on several guiding principles for continuing negotiations.”
https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/02/17/partial-breakthrough-in-us-iran-talks-core-gaps-remain/
“Israeli officials had anticipated that Iran would present proposals that may look positive, but they assess that the offer still falls short of meeting US demands.”
Just days ago, Iranian deputy foreign minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi told the BBC that, as far as Tehran is concerned, US demands for zero enrichment are “not on the table anymore.”
Israel also predicted that Iran would stall for time. The question then is how long the US will allow this to process to continue when the chances of arriving at a meaningful agreement remain close to zero.
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Hours before the talks were to begin, Iran launched live-fire naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz led by the naval forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Araghchi wrote on X, “I am in Geneva with real ideas to achieve a fair and equitable deal. What is not on the table: submission before threats.”
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If (or when) the US does attack, there are several parameters that will have to be determined:
[] What is to be the goal of the attack. Is it further weakening of the Iranian capacity to develop nuclear weapons and to acquire and build ballistic missiles? Or is the goal to take the regime down?
[] If regime change is sought, the question is how to go about it. Analysts believe that taking out Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would not be sufficient to accomplish this – successors are in place. Would focus be on the Revolutionary Guard Corps?
[] Is it more effective to weaken the regime, not attempt to take it out, and then allow the people of Iran to take it down? In many quarters it is believed that this is the appropriate path. And then the question is whether the people can accomplish this. Are they sufficiently organized? After the previous massacre by the regime, will they come out in numbers required?
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Here in Israel you will find both apprehension and optimism.
The stress regarding what will happen between the US and Iran in coming weeks is taking a toll on most of us. It could hardly be otherwise.
But there is a flip side to our situation: a very strong conviction that at the end of this terrible time we are going to be okay. More than okay. Person after person that I say this to replies, “Of course!”
We Israelis are a strong people, remarkably resilient. We continue to go about our lives, making plans much as if this were a “normal” time. Tucked somewhere in our brains is the recognition that our plans might have to be cancelled. But we are not huddled at home next to our shelters. The plans are made.
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Please, pray for all of Am Yisrael: for the wisdom and courage of our leaders and the strength of our IDF and all of our people. Pray as well for the leaders of the U.S., that they will have the courage and wisdom to act to bring true peace to our region.
©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
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