FDD | June 14, 2025
Latest Developments
- Israel Begins Striking Iranian Oil Industry: Israeli planes began targeting Iran’s critical energy infrastructure in response to Iran’s continued deadly ballistic missile barrages against Israeli population centers. The Iranian Oil Ministry reported on June 14 that the IDF struck the Shahran oil depot northwest of Tehran as well as another oil reservoir to the city’s south. Reports also indicated that the Ray Oil Refinery in Tehran was also struck. Videos of the Shahran depot following the strikes showed the facility engulfed in a massive fire, but the oil ministry’s news agency downplayed the devastation, stating that “The fuel volume in the targeted tank was not high, and the situation is fully under control.”
- Gas Field Disabled: Earlier, Israeli drones struck and disabled the South Pars Gas Field in Bushehr Province — one of the world’s largest gas fields — and the Fajr Jam Gas Refining Company. Iran has the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves, which power nearly all of its electricity production. Before the war with Israel, Iran was already suffering from a crippling energy crisis due to gas shortages, leading to the government instituting widespread power cuts for business, industrial, and residential uses.
- Netanyahu Issues Warning: “We will hit every site and every target of the Ayatollahs’ regime, and what they have felt so far is nothing compared with what they will be handed in the coming days,” declared Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The IDF has not officially confirmed striking any of the energy sites. Oil prices surged on June 13 as the war began, with Iran threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes.
FDD Expert Response
“Striking Iran’s energy infrastructure sends a clear message to Khamenei: if Israeli civilians are targeted by missiles, the regime’s economic lifelines will be targeted in return. Through its illicit oil trade — mainly to China, its partner in the Axis of Aggressors — Iran has financed terror, destabilized the region, and built an arsenal of 2,000 ballistic missiles now aimed at the Jewish state. Israel should keep tightening the chokehold until the regime is no longer a threat to Israelis — or to the Iranian people.” — Mark Dubowitz, CEO
“While many ordinary Iranians support the elimination of the regime’s top military and political officials, as well as institutions responsible for domestic repression and regional terrorism, targeting Iran’s industrial infrastructure is a double-edged sword. Although such strikes could impose significant pressure on the regime, they also risk alienating segments of the population who might otherwise support the Israeli military operation.” — Saeed Ghasseminejad, Senior Iran and Financial Economics Advisor
FDD Background and Analysis
“Elaborate ‘deception operation’ orchestrated by Trump and Israel’s Netanyahu to decapitate Iran’s leadership and cripple nuclear program,” by Mark Dubowitz
“Israel Confirms Mossad Teams Operating Inside Iran,” FDD Flash Brief
“‘From Western Iran To Tehran:’ Israel Claims Air Superiority Over Iranian Skies as it Braces For Further Retaliation,” FDD Flash Brief
“Possible Targets in Iran: Military, Nuclear, and Regime Infrastructure,” FDD Visual
The operation was well executed but one big question remains. Considering that much of the Iranian nuclear weapons program is underground, how much of that capacity has been degraded by the attack?
The job probably need be finished with bunker buster bombs to penetrate the underground facilities. Does Israel have bunker busters? If so, how can they deliver them? Is the US waiting in the wings to complete this step?