How Near Is the End?

The Deferred Reckoning with Iran and the Reshaping of the Middle East

Hussein Aboubakr Mansour | Feb 28, 2026

After long anticipation, the US (“Operation Epic Fury”) and Israel (“Operation Roaring Lion”) launched a joint attack on targets across Iran, including Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah. It must be said that this is qualitatively different from the June 2025 strikes in three critical ways: those strikes were over in hours, whereas the US military is now planning for several days of sustained operations.

The strikes began in daylight on the first day of the Iranian work week during Ramadan, signaling a psychological warfare dimension. And the target set is maximalist: Iranian media reported strikes on the Ministry of Intelligence, the Ministry of Defence, the Atomic Energy Organization, and the Parchin military complex. Israel targeted senior Iranian leadership, including Khamenei, the Armed Forces Chief of Staff Mousavi, and the President Pezeshkian, with the explicit goal of killing them. Satellite imagery shows Khamenei’s compound reduced to rubble. His status is unknown, but there is growing optimism in Israel about the decapitation strikes, though no final confirmation about whether Khamenei has been killed.

Trump explicitly called for regime change, telling the Iranian people to “take over your government” and offering IRGC members amnesty if they laid down arms. Clearly, this is it! It is not a limited nor a punitive operation, but the long-deferred attempt to create the conditions for the Islamic Republic’s final collapse. How near is the end? Or, is this just the beginning?

Here is my initial full assessment of the situation:

GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS

1. Iran’s Retaliatory Capacity and the Regional Spillover

Iran has responded immediately and aggressively. Tehran confirmed targeting the Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Ali Al-Salem in Kuwait, Al-Dhafra in the UAE, and the US Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain. At least one person was killed in Abu Dhabi, according to reports. Explosions were reported and filmed in Dubai, Doha, and Manama. Saudi Arabia confirmed that Iran targeted Riyadh and the kingdom’s eastern region, attacks it repelled, condemning what it called unjustifiable aggression despite Saudi Arabia having explicitly told Tehran it would not allow its territory to be used against Iran.

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March 1, 2026 | Comments »

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