Iran’s Mullahs Feeling the Pinch

By Amil Imani, CAPITAL HILL OUTSIDER

Selected President Hassan Rouhani’s bellicosity notwithstanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran is on the verge of collapse upon the heads of the despised Mullahs and their emblematic Revolutionary Guards…

Many pundits and experts have speculated that it is just a matter of time before the confrontation between the world and Iran’s Mullahs. Especially, after President Donald Trump pulled out of the nuclear deal, which could possibly set off a catastrophic conflagration. The present standoff is bound to change, either by the U.S. use of force to make good on its threat that a nuclear Iran is not acceptable, or the Mullahs will manage to make the unacceptable an accomplished fact.

Although the main adversaries are the U.S. and Iran, much of the world has a huge stake in regard to this potentially catastrophic confrontation. Israel, the Persian Gulf states, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq as well as nations farther away from the region are both willing and unwilling parties to this unfolding crisis.

The situation is dire indeed. Anyone who believes that sane rational people on both sides are engaged in brinksmanship to secure the best advantage would eventually work out a compromise, is deluding himself. In some cases, time works as a healer and even as a solution to thorny problems. Yet, this problem will not go away, and time would only make the cataclysmic clash more likely and deadly. There is, however, a non-violent solution, without appeasement that offers the best chance to resolve the impasse: change of regime in Iran.

Selected President Hassan Rouhani’s bellicosity notwithstanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran is on the verge of collapse upon the heads of the despised Mullahs and their emblematic Revolutionary Guards, (IRGC). A few pushes from the outside world would serve as the tipping point for long-suffering Iranians to rise and bury the Mullahs in the graveyard they so richly deserve and have made of Iran.

Here are some indicators of how seriously the Islamic Republic is ailing:

*   The $100 barrel of oil is no more. It is down to around $54. Oil money is the Mullahs’ lifeblood. The Mullahs are strapped. They can’t pay the salaries of teachers and other government employees, including their terrorist proxies. Rouhani’s largess to buy and hold his constituency has exacerbated the problem. The Islamic Republic is unable to continue to finance their terrorist clients abroad.

*   The great majority of Iranians are fed up with the misrule of the Islamic Republic and are willing to endure the sanctions. Students, workers, and women’s groups have been in the forefront in their fight with the Islamists. Even among the high-ranking clergy, a significant widespread dissension is surfacing. Ayatollahs in the twin holy cities of Qom and Mashhad, are in trouble. There are pockets of uprisings around the country.

*   Tehran was already quivering under some mild sanctions imposed by the international community over the its nuclear ambition, until President Donald Trump ditched the Obama nuclear deal a year ago and imposed numerous crippling sanctions against the Islamic regime. New tougher sanctions have hit the Iranian oil and metals sectors, as well as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) along with the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Iran’s economy is suffering badly and it is threatening to breach some of the terms of the nuclear agreement it reached with the other major powers.

*   The Islamic Republic finds itself isolated and seeks a way out of this crisis without losing face.  President Trump’s sanctions against Iran have triggered a collapse in economic growth, pushing the Islamic republic into a deep recession and lifting inflation toward 40 per cent or higher. The British Royal Marines seized the supertanker Grace 1 on Thursday for trying to take oil to Syria in violation of EU sanctions, a dramatic step that drew Tehran’s fury and could escalate its confrontation with the West.

*   Even after the nuclear deal, the perception was that Iran’s economy will excel. But it backfired. The Rial, Iran’s currency is shaky, the business community is deeply worried, and thousands of contracts remain unsigned due to the uncertainty of what might happen next.

*   Experts predict that hundreds of thousands of Iranian workers will join the already swelled ranks of the unemployed in short order. Senior foreign diplomats report a significant “moderation” in the Mullahs behavior and signs that they wish to get themselves out of the present predicament. Yet Tehran threatens it will increase enrichment because Europe has ‘indirectly violated’ the nuclear deal.

*   Fear of a possible attack by the U.S. has badly shaken the morale of the ruling elite who see their ill-gotten wealth and power in serious jeopardy. The multi-billionaire mullahs, are moving their assets out of the country and transferring it to a safer place.

*   The Islamic Republic is facing serious setbacks in Lebanon, in the Palestinian Territory, in Syria, and even in Iraq. The Mullahs’ attempt to seize power in Lebanon has aroused much of the Lebanese population against them and their proxy, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, is in disarray. The Iraqi thug-cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army, the Mullahs’ mercenary force, face serious problems due to the pressures from the U.S. and Iraqi government.

*   The above is by no means an exhaustive list of troubles the Mullahs face. Yet, they should make us realize that both Rouhani and the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his gang are on shaky ground now that the Iranian people in all strata of life in Iran despise them. A nudge here, a nudge there will likely topple the Islamofascist’s regime and save everyone a lot of trouble.

It is both dangerous and unnecessary to attack Iran militarily, nor does the U.S. need to go the route of appeasement with a seriously weak adversary, as the IRI under the rule of the mullahs is now proving itself to be. The most effective and prudent solution is to change the regime in Iran. This idea is hardly new. What is new, however, is a list of non-violent undertakings that holds considerable promise in disposing the homicidal-suicidal Mullahs. Governments should enact the following:

*   Declare unequivocally the commitment to respect the territorial integrity of Iran, as well as the rights of Iranians to decide, through a democratic process, all matters pertaining to their life and their country.

*   Initiate, without delay or equivocation, a comprehensive program of assistance to all democratic Iranian opposition groups, including Mr. Reza Pahlavi who is very popular inside and outside of Iran, in their struggle to accomplish the regime change themselves.

*   Proclaim far and wide, the cardinal reason for taking these measures against the Mullahs’ “Reign of Terror” is to prevent them from acquiring nuclear weapons, the threat they pose to the region as well as to the world, and the stimulus they provide for other nations to develop their own nuclear arsenal.

*   Force other countries to enforce even more crippling sanctions by inspecting every vessel headed for Iranian ports to make sure they do not ferry prohibited material. Other than vessels known to be carrying foodstuffs and medicine, each ship should be subjected to an elaborate inspection.

*   We should once again persuade Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and other Persian Gulf Arab oil producers to significantly increase their output and drastically cut the price. It is the least they can do to forestall the emergence of a nuclear Shiite Iran bent on ruling the region.

*   Obtain court orders to freeze the overseas assets of Iranian leaders, since they are clearly ill-gotten funds that rightfully belong to the nation.

*   Shut down, or severely restrict the operation of the Mullahs’ businesses in Dubai and other Persian Gulf states.

*   Shut down Iranian missions. Severely restrict Iranian officials and nuclear scientists from foreign travel. Recall your ambassadors from Iran.

*   Deny the Iranian Airline operation and encourage non-Iranian airlines to cease serving the country.

*   File legal charges against the leaders of the Islamic Republic’s wanton violation of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights; for their crimes against humanity, genocidal actions against religious and political groups; for support of international terrorism; for the demolition of religious sites and cemeteries; for rape, torture, and summary execution of prisoners of conscience; for forgery of documents, for acts of blackmail and fraud, and much more.

*   Declare and treat the clerical regime as illegitimate.

*   Shut down the Islamic Republic’s web sites and block their television and radio broadcasts.

*   Provide Internet & Wi-Fi Access across Iran.

*  Identify the agents of the Islamic Republic and prosecute them as promoters of international terrorism. Investigate individuals and organizations that lobby or front for the Islamic Republic.

*   Take all necessary steps to stop investments in Iran. Persuade banks to refrain from dealing with Iran and the issuance of letters of credit.

*   Pressure businesses to stop dealing with Iran. Warn countries such as China and Russia against commercial adventurism.

In short, the Iran problem is urgent. It is a world problem. A warning to the world: You need to act now. Apathy is sleep. If you sleep, you weep.

© Copyright by Amil Imani, 2019. All rights reserved.

Email Amil: freeamericanpress@yahoo.com

July 9, 2019 | 4 Comments »

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4 Comments / 4 Comments

  1. @ Bear Klein: I hope you are right, Bear. And I hope the Democrats don’t regain the Presidency and undo all this progress. Trump needs at least 4-5 more years to carry the sanctions policy to success. The Ayatollahs are in trouble, all right, but they will make every effort, by using the full powers of the Revolutionary Guard and their secret police to repress dissent long enough for a Democrat to take office. If Trump wins reelection, they will probably either be overthrown or will cave in to Trumps demands that they hand over all enriched uranium to the international nonproliferation commission (whatever its name) and dismantle all their centrifuges, etc. Trump, the deal -maker and man of peace, might allow the Ayatollah’s regime to survive if they give up their nuclear program and destroy their missiles. He is trying to force North Korea to do the same if they finally agree to hand over their nukes. Trump’s sanctions approach may work against Iran, North Korea and the PLO if he has enough time to see it through. But will he?

  2. @ Adam Dalgliesh:
    Actually the sanctions are effective because the US is willing to impose sanctions on anyone who violates the US sanctions.

    Most of the European companies have stopped doing business with Iran. Iran’s economy is tiny compared to the US so when a company says well I want to sell into the US market or Iranian market the choice is simple. Also India and China have stopped buying oil from Iran. It is killing them financially as they apply to 80% of the Iranian economy.

    Washington has applied financial restrictions to nearly 1,000 Iranian entities, including banks, individuals and vessels tied to the country’s shipping and energy sector. In May, the White House prohibited the purchase of Iranian iron, steel, aluminum and copper.

    The Trump administration has also revoked waivers that allowed eight countries, including China and India, to import Iranian oil despite U.S. sanctions. The U.S. is aiming to completely cut off Iranian oil exports in order to force Tehran to abandon support for militant groups in the Middle East and renegotiate the landmark nuclear accord.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/26/mnuchin-says-sanctions-must-be-working-for-iran-to-be-so-upset.html

  3. Amil Amani is ignoring the fact that only America under Trump is imposing sanctions on Iran. THe Europeans are refusing to cooperate. It will be difficult to force them unless Trump is willing to impose sanctions on the EU–which will be a difficult step for him to take in view of Congressional, “deep state” and media opposition. And the Mullahs read the polls like everyone else. They will try to hold on until a Democrat replaces Trump (so they and the American Dems hope) in 2020-21. The Dems have all said they will end the sanctions against Iran

  4. It’s NOT over till it’s over – and that could be another lifetime as was the USSR.
    The Ottomans took two centuries to disintegrate, and the Habsurgs went in half a decade after creaking for a century. Most of American Spain sank in a short lifetime but the rest of the European empires of the sea exploded on their own WW I doctrine of “rights of small nations [Belgium & Serbia] and Wilson’s self-determination.