By Sohrab ChamamAra | MG Paul Vallely US Army (Ret) | September 6, 2025
There was an article in the U.S.-funded Radio Farda in Persian/English, stating that Turkey is a more dangerous enemy to Israel than Iran, and it prompted to write this note: https://www.radiofarda.com/a/israel-and-turkey-long-term-turmoil/33520892.html
For years, we in Cyrus Force have been telling American policymakers that Turkey represents a more dangerous and immediate threat to Israel than the Ayatollahs’ regime in Iran. While the Islamic Republic is hostile in rhetoric and policy, its internal contradictions and the potential for peaceful change through civil society and smart sanctions make it vulnerable to non-military pressure.
By contrast, Turkey under Erdogan has combined military power, NATO cover, expansionist ideology, and open hostility toward Israel. This makes Ankara a far more unpredictable and destabilizing actor in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East. The irony is that while much of Washington’s establishment remains locked on Tehran, respected analysts in the U.S., Europe, and Israel are now recognizing the Turkish danger that we have been highlighting for years.
Our Road Map book shows clearly that the Iranian regime can be replaced without arms or military conflict. But ignoring Turkey’s aggressive trajectory would be a grave strategic error for both Israel and the West.
Contacts: Co-Directors Cyrus Force Iran: Sohrab at sohrab@chamco.net and MG Paul Vallely at suaus1961@gmail.com; www.cyrusforce.org
References:
Michael Rubin, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (Washington, D.C.), has repeatedly warned that Ankara’s ambitions pose a strategic danger, sometimes even greater than Iran’s.
Amine Ayoub, Fellow at the Middle East Forum, wrote in Ynet (Israel’s leading daily) that “Turkey is more dangerous to Israel than Iran,” pointing to Erdo?an’s growing hostility and support for Hamas.
Alper Co?kun, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Washington, D.C. and Brussels), has analyzed the escalating Turkey–Israel rivalry, stressing that Turkey’s policies destabilize the entire Eastern Mediterranean.
The Nagel Committee (Israeli government panel), as reported in Middle East Eye (UK), warned that Israel must prepare for the possibility of direct confrontation with Turkey—an unprecedented acknowledgment from within Israel’s own security establishment.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, argues for “maximum support for the Iranian people” and targeted sanctions—demonstrating that peaceful regime change in Tehran is possible without military conflict.
Suzanne Maloney, Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution, has consistently warned against military solutions with Iran and emphasized diplomacy, economic pressure, and civil society as the only sustainable path forward.
We should again take note of the fact that while Turkey was admitted into NATO, the EU has so far refused all attempts by Turkey to gain admission. I hope they keep this up.
Turkey attacked Cyprus, Putin-style, and took over the northern part of this peaceful island. They have tried to take over the sea borders of Greece and Israel for years now without noticeable success.
My guess is that the only reason why Israel has not yet done anything to relieve the situational pressure is the NATO cover that Turkey still enjoys. If, however, Turkey were to attempt to attack Israel directly, they will suffer tremendously.
@dreuveni Israel has the status of non- NATO ally, not being in Europe. I recently queried whether NATO allies would be required to come to the defence of a NATO ally against a non-NATO ally and the answer came back, no. Every state would be at liberty to decide for itself.
I suspect the main reason for Turkey’s actions at this juncture has more to do with Bibi recognizing the Armenian genocide than Suweito or Gaza.
That being said, I think it is as absurd to say Turkey is a worse threat to Israel than Iran as to assert, as Mike Dolan did in podcasts with Gabi Taub, that Israel could ally with Turkey and Turkish-backed Syria against Iran.
They are all enemies but Iran is/was the only nuclear threshold terror state and Turkey has had a contradictory relationship with Israel, rhetoric aside.
To my knowledge, Turkey has not fired missiles into Israel or directly or indirectly invaded Israel, or blown up synagogues and Jewish Community centers in the West.
@Sebastian, you are right. Turkey has not fired missiles into Israel or invaded Israel. To the best of my knowledge, they have not blown up Jewish buildings. What they do is to harbor Hamas and other terrorists and make anti-Israeli declarations which incite others to attack Jews and Israelis. They have often attempted to move the internationally recognized sea-borders of both Israel and Greece in order to grab hold of the gas and oil that these countries have found in the Mediterranean.
Turkey has committed genocide against various peoples and tribes within their own borders and claim that it is nobody’s business, kind of like the Russians. They did take over the northern part of Cyprus while under the NATO shield. There is plenty of blame to share, but in true Arab methodology, point at the misdemeanors of others to distract from your own.
@Dreuveni I queried: “Is Turkey harboring Hamas?” sans quotes and got:
I wonder which Hamas leaders are there and whether Israel will eliminate them.
@Donaldo Turkey was allied with the U.S. against the Soviet Union in the ’50s, even sending troops to fight in the Korean War. So, the U.S. backed membership for it under Eisenhower, who was no friend of Israel. But, the U.S. has always been short-sighted in seeking allies of the moment. It gets temporary results but today’s allies become tomorrow’s enemies, except for Israel. Turkey has had candidate status for the EU since 1999 and has been in a customs union allowing for free trade with it since 1995.
What idiot thought it was a good idea to give Turdkey membership in the EU, let alone NATO?