Peloni
Video Loads at Bottom
In this week’s episode of Israel Update with Gadi Taub and Mike Doran, it seems that Mike is stretching to find a reason to support Trump’s policy. Notably, it isn’t that Trump wasn’t guaranteed a victory as Mike contends, but rather, he was looking for a quick end to the war, so much so that he arranged for a $300 billion payment to be paid to Iran for their opening the Strait of Hormuz which they illegally closed. Indeed, Trump indicated that he had no choice but to seek out a deal because he had to open up the Strait of Hormuz. So while he had repeatedly stated that he had all the cards, he came to believe that he had no cards at all, or at least none which would lead to opening the Strait without paying the Iranians for doing so, and let us not forget the lifting of sanctions which took place days in advance of the Strait being opened. Note that by doing all of this, Trump set a precedent of paying a ransom to Iran to open the Strait, something that demonstrates American weakness before all the world. So much for peace by strength.
Beyond this, the deal which Trump has committed to further negotiate is so one sided that it reads like something that John Kerry wrote. Even Robert Malley, the architect of Obama’s JCPOA is celebrating the signing of the MOU, and he is doing so because it empowers Iran and diminishes America while constraining Israel, and that is the exact formula under which he designed the JCPOA. More than this, Obama’s grand plan was to create a partnership with Iran, in which all the other actors in the region were basically subordinate to Iran. This was so that America could leave the region while recognizing that it was easier to bargain with Iran and manipulate Israel than to do the opposite. So, when we look at this deal, paying Iran, lifting sanctions, while placing Lebanon in a state of suzerainty under Iran, leaving the Gulf states still threatened by Iran and Israel constrained to appease Iran, we have what is very much a similar program that Obama wanted to create more than ten years ago, and which Trump recognized as being altogether contrary to US interests. Well, it seems he changed his mind. The circumstances today are certainly different from a decade ago, but the mullahs are being granted their future, they are being paid to accept a deal with the US, and everyone in the region is being held under Iranian control in one way or another.
Also, while what is said about the deal being possibly only temporary is possibly true, the oil is still flowing, China’s teapot refineries are still being fed, and Iran is still being paid by way of arrangements made by the US via Qatar and company as well as by China to the tune of billions of dollars. So, despite the spin being argued by Mike and others on this topic, this is a very very good deal, but only for the Iranians, whose control over the Strait is going to be maintained until someone demonstrates that will to enforce the freedom of the seas, a role which the US used to fulfill, but which is currently being enforced by NOBODY. All that is needed for evil to flourish is for decent people to do nothing, and in the current case, the decent people are actually paying the evil doers in lieu of doing something to stop them.
I still contend that this war isn’t over, but this was a very bad deal even if the only actionable objective was the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which at the time of this writing, is still not open.
song from illegal Biden regime era
https://youtu.be/3NRvSvEFPFk?is=NWIfp8NrnlZUZ_ef
Trump is Owned by Qatar
https://open.substack.com/pub/lel817/p/trump-is-owned-by-qatar?r=1q2uiq&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
“Return of Obama-Era Strategy Doctrine” – – – Exactly!
The Trump MOU is the Obama JCPOA 2.0 !
Thank you!!!
Peloni stipulates that “Trump set a precedent of paying a ransom to Iran to open the straight, something that demonstrates American weakness before all the world.” Peloni is absolutely correct.
Indeed, an analogous precedent was set early on in American history when the US government paid ransom and tribute to the Barbary pirates from 1795-1801. Like the present day leaders of Iran, the Barbary pirates were for the most part marauding Muslim thugs interfering with merchant ships plying the Mediterranean Sea and Atlantic Ocean. The analogy holds even though the Iranian thugs happen to be interfering with commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz rather than in the Mediterranean or the Atlantic.
Unlike President Trump, in 1801 America’s third president, Thomas Jefferson, put his foot down to end the counter-productive practice of paying ransom to foreign terrorists by sending the fledgling US Navy to the North African coast (“to the shores of Tripoli,” as the Marine hymn states) to end the Barbary pirates thievery. By 1805, the US Navy and its cohort of US Marines had successfully carried out their mission.
While all of Jefferson’s many successes are memorialized by having his likeness displayed on Mount Rushmore, I doubt President Trump will ever be similarly memorialized, in part due to his abject failure to follow Jefferson’s precedent of showing strength, not weakness, when confronted by implacable Muslim thugs halfway around the world!
@Marc Caroff
I really appreciate your raising the analogy to the Barbary pirates. It is quite a relevant point.
Jonathan Pollard proposed exploding an EMP over Iran. I wonder what the fallout would be (no pun intended.)
@peloni, I agree, as so often, with what you wrote. There are a number of issues that need some attention:
Opening the Straits of Hormuz is certainly not advantageous to the war effort. It allows the trapped tankers and cargo ships to leave, but will they come back before this war is ended?
There are other aspects that seem to be getting ignored as we write:
The Chinese have suffered a lot. This may actually be an advantage, short range.
The Europeans have suffered less because they get a lot of their energy resources from other places. They do complain a lot though. Probably the most highly lit problem is the issue of fertilizers. The “artificial” fertilizers are created by mixing ammonia and other petroleum extracts. They could be made elsewhere and probably are.
The gulf states are suffering because their delivery routes have been blocked. This is costing them a lot of money daily. There is also the issue that stopping a well may even be irreversible. This causes pain for Iran too; Iran is a gulf state.
The biggest concern for the gulf states is the possibility that radio active material will be dispersed over the gulf. I read a book about this about 40 years ago where it was explained that one atomic bomb in the gulf region would cause the same effects we see today. Today’s situation is reversible, the atomic explosion is not so quickly repaired.
There must be a few more facts that are not common knowledge yet. For instance, those $billions that are targeting Iran at the moment probably have strings attached like the capital ventures of Witkoff and Kushner in the gulf region. It is still not clear where that money is coming from if it ever materializes.
The reason why China is not left to suffer may have various causes we are not privy to; maybe, for example, the Chinese threatened to attack USA directly, while bypassing Taiwan for now.
The reason why USA is not selling lots more oil and gas on the world market after Trump insisted on drilling for oil in the USA and gaining control of the Venezuelan oil market.
Why the Europeans love to complain but are slow to engage in any ongoing war.
What surprises me a lot is that as soon as the infamous MOU was mentioned, the gas price started to sink. Nothing has happened yet!!
As we are all aware, in the end, and Trump and Vance are working towards this solution, Israel will be blamed for provoking Iran by simply existing!!
I’m sure you can add to my short list.
Just by the way, I always enjoy these meetings with Mike Duran and Gadi Taub.
@dreuveni
Thanks for your insightful comments.
Me too. I don’t always agree with Mike, but his comments are always thought provoking, much like yours are here.