Israeli Assessment of Recent Conflict With Iran Reveals 86 Percent Success Rate in Missile Interception

FDD | July 2, 2025

Latest Developments

Photo by Government Press Office (Israel), CC BY-SA 3.0, Wikipedia

• Billions of Dollars in Damage Prevented: The Israeli Defense Ministry reported that its aerial defenses successfully intercepted 86 percent of ballistic missiles launched by Iran during the conflict in June. In a newly released assessment, the ministry estimated that the interception rate prevented more than $15 billion in potential property damage and saved countless lives. Twenty-eight civilians were killed during the strikes, with hundreds wounded as well.

• Extensive Use of Drones: Unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones, accounted for 60 percent of Israeli Air Force flight hours and 50 percent of strike operations during the war, according to the assessment. The Israeli drones — the most advanced of which can fly for several hours without landing — logged over 500 airstrikes and interdictions, including missile-launcher hunts in Iran. The ministry also reported that Israel intercepted 99 percent of the hundreds of Iranian drones launched during the conflict. According to the ministry, the results were partly due to “system upgrades to Iron Dome and David’s Sling, combined with a breakthrough Iron Dome test against drone swarms conducted in March.”
• Interceptor Missiles Proved Crucial: A study published on July 1 estimated that around 200 ballistic missile interceptors — a combination of Israel’s Arrow system and the U.S. THAAD and Aegis systems — were launched during the war. With each Arrow interceptor costing $2-3 million and each THAAD interceptor costing an estimated $13 million, the total outlay was in excess of $1 billion.

FDD Expert Response

“The lessons Israel has learned from its conflict with Iran are relevant to the challenges the U.S. Department of Defense confronts in multiple theaters. That includes Israel’s impressive use of drones for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and strikes, working in collaboration with manned aircraft over enemy territory and bolstered by space-based imagery. Israel’s layered air and missile defense systems performed quite well on balance, but several urgent steps are necessary to strengthen them, including increased Arrow production capacity in Israel and the United States. Unfortunately, the United States has not yet converted battlefield success in Iran into a sustainable political outcome. Iran will sprint to replenish and strengthen its missile arsenal and air defenses, likely with the help of Beijing and Moscow. Overconfidence and a lack of urgency are the primary dangers now for Americans and Israelis. We are learning from the war, but so is Iran.” — Bradley Bowman, Senior Director of FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power

“Israel’s success during the recent conflict with Iran illustrates how its investment in new defense technologies has paid off. Israel’s multilayered air defenses continue to prove themselves by intercepting the vast majority of Iranian missiles that posed a threat, saving lives and preventing mass destruction. The country now boasts one of the most advanced air defense systems in the world. In addition, the use of long-range drones gives Israel the capability to constantly monitor enemies while reducing the need to rely on pilots for every mission.” — Seth J. Frantzman, Adjunct Fellow

FDD Background and Analysis

“Extensive IDF Strikes Target Iranian Regime Sites, Evin Prison, Fordow Entrances,” FDD Flash Brief

“Iran Launches Dozens of Missiles at Israeli Civilians After U.S. Strikes on Nuclear Facilities,” FDD Flash Brief

“‘Completely and Totally Obliterated’: U.S. Strikes Iranian Nuclear Facilities, Including Underground Fordow Enrichment Site,” FDD Flash Brief

“US strikes Iranian nuclear facilities,” by Bill Roggio

“‘Blood of Thousands of Israelis is on His Hands’: IRGC Commander Who Backed October 7 Massacre Among Key Leaders Eliminated in IDF Precision Strikes,” FDD Flash Brief