Jewish-Arab Demography Defies Conventional “Wisdom”

Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought”, “Israel Hayom”, 

Jewish majority west of the Jordan River is secure, benefitting from a tailwind in defiance of conventional “wisdom,” which once again is detached from reality.

In 2012, Israel’s Jewish demography continues the robust surge of the last 17 years, while Muslim demography, west of the Jordan River and throughout the Middle East, increasingly embraces Western standards.

According to a June, 2012 study by the Washington-based Population Reference Bureau (PRB), 72% of 15-49 year old Palestinian married women prefer to avoid pregnancy, as are 78% in Morocco, 71% in Jordan, 69% in Egypt and Libya, 68% in Syria, 63% in Iraq and 61% in Yemen.  The PRB study states that “a growing number of women are using contraception, as family planning services have expanded in the Arab region.”

The unprecedented fertility decline in the Muslim world was documented in June, 2012 by Dr. Nicholas Eberstadta leading demographer at the American Enterprise Institute, and Apoorva Shah of the Hoover Institute.  According to Eberstadt and Shah, “Throughout the worldwide Muslim communityfertility levels are falling dramatically…. According to the UN Population Divisionestimates and projections, all 48 Muslim-majority countries and territories witnessed fertility decline over the last three decades…. The proportional decline in fertility for Muslim-majority areas was greater than for the world as a whole over that same period, or for the less-developed regions as a whole…. Six of the ten largest absolute declines in fertility for a two-decade period yet recorded in the postwar era (and by extension, we may suppose, ever to take place under orderly conditions in human history) have occurred in Muslim-majority countries…. Four of the ten greatest fertility declines ever recorded in a 20-year period took place in the Arab world…. No other region of the world — not highly dynamic Southeast Asia, or even rapidly modernizing East Asia — comes close to this showing…. The remarkable fertility declines now unfolding throughout the Muslim world is one of the most important demographic developments in our era.”

The key developments yielding a drastic decline in Arab fertility, in the Middle East including west of the Jordan River, have been modernity and its derivatives.  For instance, urbanization (70% rural Arab population in Judea and Samaria in 1967 and 75% urban in 2012), expanded women’s education and employment, a record high divorce rate and wedding age, all time high family planning, rapidly declining teen-pregnancy, youthful malenet-emigration, etc.

The Palestinian Authority (PA) has inflated the actual number of Arabs in Judea and Samaria (1.65 million) by one million, since the arrival of one million Olim from the USSR. Thus, in contrast with internationally accepted demographic standards, the PA counts some 400,000 overseas residents, who have been overseas for over a year, as de-facto residents.  Some 300,000 Israeli I.D. card-bearing Jerusalem Arabs are doubly-counted as Israelis (by Israel) and as Palestinians (by the PA).  The number of births is over-reported, the number of death is under-reported, emigration is ignored, etc.

In 2012, Israel’s Jewish fertility rate (three births per woman) is trending upward, boding well for Israel’s economy and national security, exceeding any Middle Eastern Muslim country, other than Yemen, Iraq and Jordan, which are trending downward.  Iran’s fertility rate is 1.8 births per woman, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States – 2.5, Syria and Egypt – 2.9 and North Africa – 1.8.  The average fertility rate of an Israeli-born Jewish mother has already surpassed three births.  In 2012, the Israeli Arab-Jewish fertility gap is half a birth per woman, compared with a six birth gap in 1969.  Moreover, young Jewish and Arab Israeli women have converged at three births, with Arab women trending below – and Jewish women trending above – three births.

In 2012, Jewish births have expanded to 77% of total Israeli births, compared with 69% in 1969. While the ultra-orthodox Jewish fertility rate has declined, due to growing integration into the workforce and the military, the secular Jewish fertility rate has risen significantly.

Since 2001, the number of Jewish emigrants has decreased and the number of returning Jewish expatriates has increased. Aliya has been sustained annually since 1882, while Arab net-emigration – especially from Judea and Samaria – has been a fixture, at least, since 1950.

The current 66% Jewish majority in the combined area of the pre-1967 Israel, Judea and Samaria would catapult to an 80% majority in 2035, if Israel realizes the clear and present dramatic Aliyah (Jewish immigration) window of opportunity.  At least 500,000 Olim from the former USSR, France, Britain, Argentina and the USA could reach Israel during the next five years, in light of Israel’s economic indicators, the intensification of European anti-Semitism, the Islamic penetration of Europe and the growth of Jewish-Zionist education.

The suggestion that Jews are doomed to become a minority between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean is either dramatically-mistaken or outrageously-misleading.

October 20, 2012 | 5 Comments »

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5 Comments / 5 Comments

  1. @ Hugo Schmidt-Fischer:
    I agree with you. However my suggestion is made in consideration of the large number of terminally appeasing Israelis. They would be horrified at the prospect of a world boycott of apartheid Israel. So an option for citizenship has to be part of any plan of annexation.~~~ I would not be so sure that Arabs would rush to take the oath of allegiance to the JEWISH state, even as a form of Takiya. They may refuse as a matter of pride. The process of sorting through criminal records, and going through the swearing ceremony in small groups would take decades. ~~ In the meantime they could be offered assistance to emigrate, while curtailing benefits for polygamous families, and for those who commit crimes.

    One of the biggest obstacles is Israeli hypersensitivity to world criticism. As things stand in Israel right now there is no other way of getting from point A: government ministers talking casually about disengaging from J/S, to point B: agreeing to extend sovereignty to all that territory – without wrapping everything up as a package consistent with international law. Whether the PA Arabs have the right to Israeli citizenship or not could be sorted out later. The main thing is to annex now.

  2. @ Canadian Otter:

    Since the first allegiance of an Arab is to Islam, and since Islam wants to dominate everything else, the swearing ceremony will not satisfy. Moreover, the concept of Taqiya in Islam says that it is OK for a muslim to lie and to deceive in order to advance the cause of Islam. And thus, we cannot rely on the allegiance of muslims to our way of life and there should be no track that leads to citizenships for members of muslim persuasion.

    But the requirement of swearing of allegiance to the Jewish state does have one merit. It could be applied to


    Arab citizens. And when after thaking the oath of allegiance, an Arab is found to have trespassed, he could be deported.

  3. @ Hugo Schmidt-Fischer:
    It’s pure manipulation. It’s easy to see through it. The same people who scare Jews with PA Arab demographics also advocate letting in hundreds of thousands of African infiltrators into Israel.

    The latest ruse to save the “Two States” fraud has been a series of columns warning Jews that there are rumblings of another intifada, so the only way to save Israel is to let the Arabs have their state ASAP.

    The idea of ganting automatic citizenship, no questions asked, is ludicrous. First thing on the agenda for those advocating for Israeli sovereignty over Judea and Samaria should be to completely DEBUNK the idea of automatic citizenship. Jews who appear too keen to appease the genocidal world by playing by their rules should be presented with the option of a long-term process, where law-abiding Arabs would have to apply individually and swear allegiance to the Jewish State and all its laws. That would take some time.

  4. Very encouraging news. West of the river Jordan, there is a prominent Jewish majority in Israel throughout.

    And let me again repeat like a mantra, what I have stated on these pages before.

    Do not accede to arguments that you need to offer muslims voting rights. Do not accept that not giving citizenship to Arabs would lead to an apartheid situation. That in order to avoid a second class society, you need a two state (‘final’) solution.

    On the contrary, it is perfectly OK for a modern, progressive state not to award its minorities voting rights.

    Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Singapore and Luxembourg have a quarter to over 40% of their population as non-voting non-citizens. Yet these are indeed fine countries where anyone would love to live in.

    So no two state (i.e. ‘final’) solution for Israel please.

    Citizenship cannot be awarded to people who have a culture that defies freedom. Keep Israel a Jewish state.