OUR WORLD: The limits of Israeli power

The crowd at the King David responded enthusiastically to Bolton’s proposal. This is not surprising.


Donald Trump Israel

Thursday, US President Donald Trump bowed to the foreign policy establishment and betrayed his voters. He signed a presidential waiver postponing the transfer of the US Embassy to Jerusalem for yet another six months.

Ahead of Trump’s move, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a last-ditch bid to convince Trump to move the embassy to Jerusalem. But it was not to be.

Israel’s failure to convince Trump to do what he repeatedly promised US voters he would do during his presidential campaign shows the disparity in power between Israel and the US.

Israel lacks the power to convince foreign nations to recognize its capital – much less to locate their embassies there. The US, on the other hand, not only has the power to recognize Jerusalem and transfer its embassy to Israel’s capital whenever it wishes to do so, it also has the ability to convince dozens of other countries to immediately follow its lead.

The disparity between what the Americans can do and what Israel can do was on display on Monday evening in a glittering hall at the King David Hotel in Jerusalem. There, Bar-Ilan University conferred its Guardian of Zion award on former US ambassador to the UN John Bolton. In his acceptance speech, Bolton presented his vision for the resolution of the Palestinian conflict with Israel.

Bolton’s views are important not merely because his past work at the State Department and the UN brought the US some of its only diplomatic victories in recent decades. His views are important as well because of his close relationship with Trump.

Bolton began his discussion Monday evening by rejecting the “two-state solution.” The two-state model, he noted, has been tried and has failed repeatedly for the past 70 years. There is no reason to believe that it will succeed now. This is particularly true, he said, given the lack of Palestinian social cohesion.

Hamas controls Gaza. The PLO, which is supposed to be Israel’s peace partner, barely controls parts of Judea and Samaria. At a time when more cohesive Arab societies are unraveling, the notion that a Palestinian state would survive and advance regional peace and stability is laughable, Bolton argued.

Bolton then turned to his preferred policy for resolving the Palestinian conflict with Israel, which he dubbed “the three-state solution.” Under his plan, Egypt and Jordan would work with Israel to solve the Palestinian conflict. Egypt would take over the Gaza Strip and Jordan would negotiate the status of Judea and Samaria with Israel.

The crowd at the King David responded enthusiastically to Bolton’s proposal. This is not surprising.

Since 1967, Israelis have hoped for Jordan and Egypt to work with them to solve the problem of the Arabs of Judea, Samaria and Gaza who lived under Jordanian and Egyptian occupation from 1949-1967.

Unfortunately, Israel’s support for Bolton’s plan is irrelevant. Israel is powerless to advance it. Israel cannot convince Arab nations to help it resolve the Palestinian conflict any more than it can convince the PLO to cut a peace deal with it.

Like PLO leaders, the leaders of the Arab world know that they cannot help Israel with the Palestinians.

Doing so would involve disowning the Palestinian narrative.

The Palestinian narrative claims that the Jews of Israel are colonialist interlopers who stole the land from the Palestinians, its rightful owners. The narrative makes no distinction between Tel Aviv and Hebron. All of Israel is a crime against the Arab world. All of Israel is illegitimate.

The overwhelming majority of the Arab world believes the Palestinian narrative. For an Arab leader to walk away from it or even to signal an attenuation of his fealty to it in the interest of regional peace would be the riskiest of moves.

Israel has nothing to offer Arab leaders that could induce them to take that risk.

Although it is far from certain, the US may very well have the ability to convince Arab leaders to do so. If Trump decided that this is the way to advance peace in the Arab world, chances are he would make some headway. In other words, Bolton’s three-state plan is a plan that only America can adopt. It cannot be an Israeli plan no matter how enthusiastically the public supports involving Jordan and Egypt in solving the conflict.

Given Israel’s inability to offer the Arabs anything valuable enough for Arab leaders to risk life and limb to accept in exchange for helping to solve the Palestinian conflict, as Israel considers its own options in relation to the Palestinians, it needs to limit its goals to things that it can achieve without them. In other words, the only steps that Israel can take in relation to the Palestinians are unilateral steps.

For the past 50 years, hoping that the Arabs – and since 1993, the PLO – would finally make peace with it and so settle the permanent status of Judea and Samaria, Israel refused to take any unilateral actions in relation to its permanent interests in Judea and Samaria. Rather than apply its legal code to Judea and Samaria, it opted for the stop-gap measure of installing a military government to run the areas on the basis of Jordanian law.

Between 1994 and 1996, Israel canceled the military government in the Palestinian population centers in Judea and Samaria and Gaza. In 2005, when it withdrew, it canceled the residual military government in the rest of Gaza. Since then, the only area that remains under the Israeli military government is Area C in Judea and Samaria. Area C includes all of the Israeli communities in Judea and Samaria, and strategically critical areas including the Jordan Valley, the Samaria mountain range and the south Hebron Hills.

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Netanyahu gave an interview with Army Radio where he set out part of his vision for the permanent status of Judea and Samaria. He limited his statement to the military status of the areas. He said that under any possible future scenario, Israel must retain full security control of the areas. This, he said, is the lesson of Israel’s 2005 withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.

That pullout led to the transformation of Gaza into a Hamas-controlled hub of global jihad. Moreover, under Hamas, the Palestinians turned Gaza into one big, densely populated missile-launching pad against Israel.

While justified, Netanyahu’s position obscures more than it illuminates about his long-term vision for Judea and Samaria.

What does he mean by security control? Would the IDF remain in sole control over Israel’s eastern boundaries or would it serve as an overall coordinator of foreign forces operating along the border? Would IDF forces be confined to fortified positions while the Palestinians reign free in the open areas, as was the case in southern Lebanon in the years leading up to Israel’s disastrous withdrawal in 2000? Or would the IDF have freedom of action and maintain the initiative throughout Judea and Samaria? Moreover, does Netanyahu envision the IDF remaining the only military organization operating in Judea and Samaria in the long term? Beyond the security issues that require clarification, Netanyahu’s statements make no mention of the rights of Jews to live in Judea and Samaria.

Does he believe that Jews should be permitted to live permanently in the areas that Israel controls? If so, why are they subjected to the Jordanian legal code used by the military government and which proscribes their right to purchase land and register land sales? This brings us to the issue of governance. What does Netanyahu think about the military government in Area C? Does he believe that the 50-year reign of generals should continue until the Arabs choose to resolve the Palestinian conflict with Israel? What if this means that the generals will continue to rule over hundreds of thousands of Israeli citizens for another 50 or 100 or 150 years? Does he, on the other hand, prefer to transfer governance responsibility in Area C to the Palestinians and place the nearly 500,000 Israelis in the area under Palestinian control? In the course of his remarks, Bolton noted that if Jordan is responsible for the Palestinians of Judea and Samaria, the issue of Jerusalem will be removed from the equation. After all, if their capital is Amman, Israel has no reason to divide its capital city.

And this brings us back to Jerusalem, which Trump spurned on Thursday.

As is the case today, 50 years ago, Israel had no power to influence the positions of foreign governments regarding its capital city. But in contrast to its decision to establish a military government in Judea and Samaria, Israel didn’t wait for foreigners to give it permission to act where it had the power to act in order to change the status of the city and ensure its ability to govern and control its capital for generations to come.

In 1967, the government voted to expand the municipal boundaries of Jerusalem to include the eastern, northern and southern quarters that had been under Jordanian occupation since 1949.

Everyone benefited from the move – including the foreign powers that still refuse to recognize the simple fact that Jerusalem is Israel’s capital.

Washington and the rest of the governments of the world know that their refusal to recognize Israel’s capital does not endanger Israel or its control of Jerusalem. They are free to bow to Arab pressure, safe in the knowledge that Israel will continue to protect the unified city.

Trump’s decision to sign the waiver delaying the embassy move is a betrayal of his campaign promise, but it doesn’t change the situation in Jerusalem. Last week, Israel celebrated 50 years of sovereignty over its united capital. Jerusalem will be neither more nor less united if and when the US moves its embassy to the capital.

Perhaps Trump will eventually keep his word and move the embassy. Perhaps he will continue to breach his promise. And as far as the Palestinians are concerned, perhaps Trump adopts Bolton’s three-state plan in relation to Judea, Samaria and Gaza. Perhaps he will maintain his predecessors’ slavish devotion to the establishment of a PLO state.

Israel can’t control what Trump will do any more than it can influence what the Arabs will do. And so it needs to take a lesson not only from its bitter experience of withdrawing from Gaza, but from its positive experience of taking matters into its own hands in Jerusalem.

The time has come, at the outset of the second 50 years of Israeli control over Judea and Samaria, for Israel to take matters into its own hands. Our leaders must stop beating around the bush. They need to use the powers they have to secure Israel’s military and civilian interests in Judea and Samaria for the next 50 years as best they can. And they need to stop waiting for someone else to solve our problems for us.

June 2, 2017 | 11 Comments » | 46 views

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11 Comments / 11 Comments

  1. :
    All of these “embassies”, all over the place, support the interests of GOVERNMENT.

    They do not serve the interest of good, international relations. As if government bureaucrats passing parsed, multi-lingual, 256-bit encrypted memos back and forth can accomplish anything.

    They do not serve the interest of the taxpayers back home. As if citizens really want to visit rubber-stamping, arrogant, government bureaucrats while away on holiday.

    And of course we know that ambassadorships are awarded not to honest, affable types who can project a positive image of their countrymen (Tillerson might be the rare exception), but rather to conniving, opportunistic, political types whose only objective credentials is that they delivered votes or campaign cash to the party in control of the government — no matter how personally offensive such hacks might be to foreigners and their fellow citizens alike (think HRC).


    You want to know who Trump should send as an envoy to NK (as if the USA should ever have had a role to play over there)?


  2. “And they need to stop waiting for someone else to solve our problems for us”.
    I fully concur.
    Jews should NOT be afraid of their own shadow!

  3. I don’t think that Caroline realizes that the “deep state” in the United States, composed of bureaucrats, retired ex-bureaucrats, think-tankers, foundation executives, politically wired lawyers, lobbyists, members of elite membership-by-invitation groups like the Council on Foreign Relations, etc. etc., actually controls U.S. foreign policy, not the president. The ‘deep state” has blackmailed Trump with its allegations that he and his entourage are Russian agents. Trump initially showed signs of intending to follow an independent foreign policy that differed from that of the deep state. But then the deep-staters forced the ouster of his first national security advisor, Gen. Michael Flynn, and massively increased their leaks to the press and allegations to Congressional committees to the effect that Trump was working for the Russians. Trump has tried to appease the deep state by appointing several of their people, such as Gen. Mathis, to crucial positions, and accepting their advice. Despite his attempt to appease the deep-staters by accepting direction from them on most foreign-policy matters, including the Arab-Israel conflict, they have not been mollified and are continuing their all-out efforts to drive him from office. They will probably succeed in forcing his resignation within a few months, if he is not assassinated before then. As a result, Caroline should not blame Trump for his failure to make major changes in U.S. policy towards Israel. She should remember that the next president will probably be far more hostile than Trump.

  4. @ Adam Dalgliesh:

    If Trump goes we get Pence who would be more inclined to Israel’s benefit than Trump so for Israel not a bad trade off. I still support Trump but he is too shallow and too ignorant to be good for Israel long term….. He just sold the Saudis 34
    0 billion in arms and advanced technology including nuke technology. Israel got a lousy 75 million in compensation so we should say thanks but F**k yo
    u and looks for better alternatives to counter… Eventually the Saudis will turn their American war toys against us. The arms purchase by the Saudis are their idea of bribes to get American protection against Iran…. I would like to see unpublished agreements and understandings Trump signed with them.

  5. More important for Israel than moving the USA Embassy is to do the following:

    1. Build in E1 based on existing plans expanding Ma’Lah Adumim, Build elsewhere in Judea/Samaria. Start applying Israeli Civil Law to the “Settlement Blocks” and all Jewish Towns in Judea/Samaria, including the Jordan Valley.

    Yes we want the Embassy moved! More important is just establishing facts on the ground and Israel taking control over its own land. Waiting for foreigners to give blessings to Israel by moving embassies is of secondary importance.

    Clearly Trump does not understand at this point that the goal of the Palestinians is to destroy Israel just as it has been for 100 years. So his goal of a peace treaty is not based on understanding the reality.

  6. Surely The G-D of Israel laughs at the nations in their vain imagination to ‘recognize Jerusalem as His Capital City. He has chosen and who can move His hand? All who seek to ‘move Jerusalem’ will be dashed to pieces. Zechariah 12:3

  7. @ davida rosenberg:
    It’s certainly comforting but I wonder why nobody wonders — in print, anyway that I can find — why Zechariah is making this “prediction” — which is really a description of what had happened 80 years before but without the happy ending –just after the completion of the rebuilding of the Temple. Is it prediction or is it poetry? He is writing between 518 and 520 CE.

    “Zechariah is specific about dating his writing (520–518 BC). During the Exile many Judahites and Benjaminites were taken to Babylon, where the prophets told them to make their homes (Jeremiah 29), suggesting they would spend a long period of time there.”
    Book of Zechariah – Wikipedia

    Jeremiah, that other “prophet” was praising Nebuchadnezzar as an agent of God to rationalize what could not be undone at that time and use it to further his agenda.


    I do believe God is on our side and we have seen miracles for Israel in our lifetime, though none to stop the Shoah or the centuries of massacres that built up to it. But, all this written stuff is just the impotent and biased opinion of us lowly mortals bound by the times in which we live. From time to time, I have seen something like prophecy but not in religious texts. Science Fiction, usually.

    “God helps those who help themselves.”

  8. Natalie Portman. Look her up on Wikipedia! Just an actress, sorry,”actor.” It says that she was born in Jerusalem. That’s it. Not Jerusalem, Israel! I find this beyond repulsive! I find that the US is their friend beyond laughable! The US has never, I repeat, never been a friend to Israel, let alone the diaspora! Trump does as Trump does. When are you going to wake up!!!???

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