The justice minister and Bayit Yehudi star-MK said that the connection was strong even under the Obama administration, despite disagreements over the Palestinian issue.

By Yonah Jeremy Bob, JPOST

The US-Israel alliance and support from the Trump administration is strong, but the president is wasting time chasing a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians, Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked told The Jerusalem Post in a recent interview.

Trump “should not waste time trying to get the ultimate peace deal done – it won’t happen,” Shaked said.
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Ex-minister stresses he accepts Netanyahu will lead Likud in next elections, won’t comment on what might happen if PM is indicted

TOI

Former Likud minister Gideon Sa’ar said on Friday that his return to politics is the first step in a journey whose ultimate goal is to become prime minister.

Sa’ar announced his return to politics on Monday, two and a half years after he left the political scene in a move that surprised his colleagues.

“I returned in order to reach the leadership of the country in the future,” Sa’ar told Channel 10 in an interview aired Friday evening.
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T. Belman. McCarthy is suggesting that we need to be aligned with Assad to destroy ISIS. But that makes us hypocrites; against the use of WMD’s yet aligned with them. Secondly, What makes this attrocity more demanding of response that the mass killings perpetrated by both Assad and ISIS amounting to hundreds of thousands of deaths. McCarthy favours destroying the greater threat to America. In this case, ISIS.

The U.S. has no vital national interest in joining its civil war.

By Andrew C McCarthy, NATIONAL REVIEW

When it came to foreign policy, I was worried that the 2016 election would be a case of Clinton delivering the third Obama term. Instead, we have Trump giving us the third Clinton term.

President Donald Trump has now done what candidate Donald Trump committed not to do: He has launched a military strike against a foreign regime — a repulsive one, to be sure — in the absence of any threat, much less any attack, against the United States, in furtherance of no vital American interests.
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By DAvid French, NATIONAL REVIEW

There are good reasons why American presidents of both parties keep getting sucked into military conflicts in the region.

We’re less than 100 days into the Trump presidency, and already a streak has been maintained: After last night’s airstrike in Syria, each of the last seven American presidents has launched his own entirely new military operation against jihadists or hostile Muslim governments. Yet it’s safe to say that each of them entered office either hoping to avoid new conflicts or believing that they would decisively turn the page and transition to a better, more peaceful Middle East.

Jimmy Carter responded to the Iran hostage crisis with a failed military operation against Tehran. Ronald Reagan bombed Libya and intervened in Lebanon. George H. W. Bush responded to Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait with the overwhelming force of Desert Storm and launched a humanitarian operation in Somalia that ultimately led to the battle of Mogadishu. Bill Clinton periodically attacked Hussein’s Iraq and lobbed cruise missiles into Sudan and Afghanistan. George W. Bush responded to 9/11 by invading Afghanistan in 2001, and he deposed Hussein in 2003. Barack Obama launched entirely new operations in Libya and Syria while managing the existing Iraq and Afghanistan wars.
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By MARTIN SHERMAN

Just as Hezbollah or ISIS/A-Qaeda affiliates may well have deployed in the Golan, had Israel withdrawn; so Hamas or other Jihadi elements may deploy on the highlands of Judea-Samaria if Israel withdraws

The action of discouraging an action or event through instilling doubt or fear of the consequences. – The Oxford Dictionary  

…the Arab states can permit themselves a series of military defeats while Israel cannot afford to lose a single war… a military defeat of Israel would mean the physical extinction of a large part of its population and the political elimination of the Jewish state. …To lose a single war is to lose everything,

Yigal Allon,  Israel: The Case For Defensible Borders , Foreign Affairs, October 1976 
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Ted Belman. This is great. Even Haaretz is entertaining the Jordanian solution.
but as I pointed out in The Ultimate Alternate Solution, there is no need to include Area B and perhaps Area A in the bargain.

Effectively he wants Israel to retain Area C and to join A and B to Jordan.

If leaders on both the Israeli and Palestinian side are brave, there is another way of solving the problem that would give the Palestinians a state five times larger than Israel

By Israel Harel, HAARETZ

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump walking into the White House, February 15, 2017.Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

Habayit Hayehudi Chairman Naftali Bennett believes the way Israel – that is, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – is conducting itself with the Trump administration constitutes a missed strategic opportunity. Instead of presenting Trump with a plan for the annexation of the West Bank’s Area C, Netanyahu has repeated his commitment to the hollow “two states for two peoples” formula. Indeed, in the meeting with Trump in February, Netanyahu didn’t need to be bold, let alone show chutzpah, in order to show him – taking care not to be seen asking for acquiescence – a plan for the annexation of certain areas and unlimited construction in Jerusalem, Judea and Samaria.
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This week’s disclosures strengthen the sense that Trump’s failure owes primarily to the deliberate subversion of his administration by his predecessor

BY CAROLINE B. GLICK, JPOST

Eli Lake from Bloomberg set off a firestorm in the US this week with his revelation on Monday that in the last six months of the Obama administration, Susan Rice, former president Barack Obama’s national security adviser, requested that the US intelligence community enable her to use foreign intelligence collection as a means of gathering information about Donald Trump’s advisers.
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DEBKA

The US military launched approximately 50 Tomahawk cruise missiles at a Syrian military airfield late on Thursday, in the first direct American assault on the government of President Bashar al-Assad since that country’s civil war began six years ago.The operation, which the Trump administration authorized in retaliation for a chemical attack killing scores of civilians this week, dramatically expands US military involvement in Syria.

The missiles were launched from two Navy destroyers — the USS Ross and USS Porter — in the eastern Mediterranean. They struck an airbase called Shayrat in Homs province, which is the site from which the planes that conducted the chemical attack in Idlib are believed to have originated

2. Can Trump buck the trend>

Can Trump (assuming he wants to) transform US foreign policy in the Middle East? To get a sense for how difficult this might be, we must appreciate how traditional the pro-jihadi policy has been. (It wasn’t just Obama.)

Historical & Investigative Research – 10 February 2017, by Francisco Gil-White

Plus ça change, plus ça devient le même.

During the presidential campaign, many believed Trump when he said that he would combat jihadism and defend Israel. I was always skeptical. But how to reason from the evidence? What policies will be diagnostic of Trump’s direction? In a Foreign Affairs piece published before Trump took his oath (Part 1), I wrote that if Trump were to:
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Ted Belman. Francisco Gil-White, HIR, has just written a series of articles under the heading Trump and the Middle East in which he asks profound questions and provides even more profound answers. His analysis is based on his Historical Investigative Research. He sticks to his methodology and so far he has correctly forecast what will happen in the Middle East.

Hang tight. We are going for a ride. One article at a time.

1. WILL TRUMP BE DIFFERENT?

Will Trump be different? Israeli patriots expect him to be. After all, he postures as an enemy of Iran and ISIS. But, what evidence will be diagnostic that Trump really is delivering on his Mideast promises?

Historical & Investigative Research – Jan 20, 2016, by Francisco Gil-White

Plus ça change, plus ça devient le même.

In his campaign, Donald Trump denounced indiscriminate immigration of Muslims and Barack Obama’s and Hillary Clinton’s presumed reluctance to confront the Islamic State (ISIS), Iran, and jihadist terrorism more generally. Excited Israeli patriots now await a tough line against jihadism in the Middle East and elsewhere. They dare to imagine a great US policy turnaround: a pro-Israeli Donald Trump.

My students and readers want to know what I make of him. Is he for real? Will anything change? DEBKAfile researchers say it will:
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By Stephen Bryen and Shoshana Bryen, AMERICAN THINKER

It is hard to explain why Bashar Assad used nerve gas — probably Sarin — in the town of Khan Sheikhoun in Syria’s northern Idlib province. On the surface, at least, it would seem to be a totally counterproductive and reckless move likely to anger the Europeans, the Americans, and even his patrons the Russians. Then why would he do it?

It was a surprise, coming as it did immediately after U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley announced that “regime change” in Syria was no longer a priority and the U.S. focus would be on ISIS. This was a major change from the Obama administration and should have reassured Assad that he could hang on as ruler of Syria. But some pundits saw the U.S. policy shift as a perverse incentive for Assad, making it possible for him to believe he could use highly lethal chemical weapons without fear of retaliation. The Sarin would thus be a test of whether the new policy was real. To some degree, the announcement by the British prime minister that the UK had no retaliatory plans despite the attack might seem to be evidence for this argument.
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Ted Belman. When Trump said “it crossed the line” he in effect was promising action.

By MARK LANDLER, DAVID E. SANGER and MICHAEL D. SHEAR, NYT

By Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman, April 6, 2017

Ma’ale Adumim by David Mosberg, via Wikimedia Creative Commons

\BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 442, April 6, 2017

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The understandings reached between the Trump administration and the Netanyahu government, and approved by the Israeli Security Cabinet (despite some protests), show that a reasonable program of settlement construction is not the root of all evil in the region. In fact, a peace deal is more likely if space is given to the mainstream settler community. The new understandings overturn the language of UNSCR 2334 and the “purist” interpretation of “international legitimacy.” Such a return to the recognition of existing realities – which was granted in the exchange of letters between Bush and Sharon in April 2004 – would help all sides come closer to a realistic compromise.
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DEBKA

Seven nations maintain elite military units in Syria – the US, Russia, Britain, Germany, France, Jordan and Israel. American, Russian and Turkish troops are backed by air support. Had those powers decided to destroy the Syrian dictator Bashar Assad’s poison chemical arsenal, they could have combined to do so and finished the job in a few days – and this week’s horrific tragedy possibly been averted.

The death toll from the Syrian chemical warfare bombardment of the rebel-held town of Kkhan Sheikhoun Monday, April 3, is now estimated at 150 with several hundred injured, cared for in totally inadequate medical facilities. The number of child victims has raised the pitch of world condemnation The total figure fluctuates according to source.
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By Ted Belman

I loved Trump’s platform but now he is losing it.

1. Flynn was forced to resign and we don’t really know why. Rather than replace him with a like thinker, e.g. Frank Gaffney Jr, he was replaced with his opposite, Gen McMaster. Trump has never explained why the switch. Flynn saw Islam as the enemy and wanted to defeat ISIS and its ideology. McMaster believes Islam is a religion of peace and that ISIS is not Islamic.

2. Trump started out looking for alternate solutions to the Arab Israeli conflict and allowing Israel to build. In pursuit of same he announced that his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, as chief negotiator. He got pro- settlement, Amb Friedman installed and appointed Greenblatt, an orthodox Jew, his peace emissary. Then promptly undermined them and his original platform. He appointed Rex Tillerson, a proponent of the two-state solution, as his Secretary of State. He left in office Obama appointees who had key roles in Obama’s policies re the peace process and the Iran deal. And he himself has doubled down on trying to get a peace agreement.
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By Robert Costa and Abby Phillip, WaPo

President Trump on Wednesday removed controversial White House chief strategist Stephen K. Bannon from the National Security Council, part of a sweeping staff reshuffling that elevated key military and intelligence officials to greater roles on the council and left Bannon far less involved in shaping the administration’s day-to-day national security policy.

Two senior White House officials said Bannon’s departure was in no way a demotion and that he had rarely attended meetings since being placed on the council. They and others interviewed for this story spoke on the condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak publicly on the issue.
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Ted Belman. Abrams seems to think that this understanding as laid out is a “sensible deal”, just like the Bush years. Why? Because Israelis now know where they can build. But they don’t know how many they can build and that is as important as where. The question now is, “why is the quantity an issue at at?” And then there is a second limitation, Israel can’t annex anything. So clearly Israel is not the master in its own house. She has given up the right to chart her own course.

This isn’t a recent phenomena. Remember when we were building the security fence, America micromanaged where it could be built. The US doesn’t have the right to override our sovereignty but it has the power to do so. We need the US to stand with us in the UN and against Iran and to resupply us when necessary, to name a few.  The preservation of the territories  for a two state solution is the key demand made on Israel. The US doesn’t have to so limit us, they choose to.

By Elliot Abrams, ISRAEL HAYOM

More Jewish or pro-Israel investors have the bulk of their portfolios in Qatar, UAE, Malaysia and Indonesia than in Israel

With $90 billion at their discretion, why are the majority of Jewish funds and federations not only skipping Israel, but investing in ‘enemy’ countries?

BY CATHRYN J. PRINCE, TOI

NEW YORK — For the first time in its history the Jewish Federation of Greater Metro West New Jersey will make a dedicated allocation to Israel equities.

Illustrative: a Jewish Federations of North America General Assembly conference. (Eric Stephenson for JFNA via JTA)

“The board felt that it is an overall investment with a reasonable return and with some heart and mission behind it,” Daniel Staffenberg, Chief Development Officer at the Metro West NJ Federation said of the board’s decision to invest in Israel using ISRA, which tracks the BlueStar Israel Global Index.

At first glance that might seem like a bit of ho-hum news. It’s not.
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