Peloni: So what is the plan for the day after, afterall?
https://twitter.com/Stinky915846091/status/1941346992875241537
When we hear claims of the IDF controlling “65%” of Gaza it seems like a lot? Until you realize it’s mostly open areas and suburbs that were already captured and cleared a year ago. Most urban areas are controlled by Hamas, including the central camps and Gaza city; and they have mostly been controlled by Hamas for 21 months of war, 636 days.
This had been a war waged with the result of leaving most of the urban areas under the control of Hamas and moving the population into areas run by Hamas, essentially preserving its rule, it has never been really threatened or pressured because Hamas knew that the IDF is reticent to enter the central camps and Gaza city; it knew Israel’s political echelon doesn’t want to replace Hamas rule with another authority or make plans for who will rule over the civilians and separate them from Hamas. It knew that for a decade and a half Hamas rule has been a convenience to separate Gaza from the PA; and that funds were provided by Doha and others to keep this going; Hamas has friends in Doha and Ankara and it knew that even if it murdered 1,000 people in a day, its rule will be preserved. The worst massacre of Jews since the Shoah and from day one the Hamas assumed the decision was that Hamas won’t be removed and the civilians will be left under Hamas rule rather than give them another option. This Hamas hunkered down in the central camps and waited it out.
It truly is a fascinating war, hundreds of IDF soldiers killed, 20 in June 2025 in Gaza; and Hamas still in charge of most of the urban areas of Gaza.
I understood basically from the first day of the war that it would be unlikely that Hamas would be replaced. In a different set of circumstances maybe, but the setup from Oct 7 onward, having the same generals who failed on Oct 7 in charge and other key figures who didn’t want the PA in Gaza and preferred the status quo of Hamas etc.
A decade and a half investing in Hamas running Gaza with the connections Hamas has made it difficult. No one really wanted them gone. In general no one wanted a “day after” plan. You’d hear things like “we can’t do a plan for after Hamas until Hamas is defeated”. Then it was clear Hamas would never be fully defeated. It would be reduced to 4 out of 25 “battalions” or its “military and governance capabilities” would be defeated, meaning it still exists it’s just weaker like it was rolled back to 2007 era.
There were statements like “there won’t be Hamas”…but when you tried to probe what that means, you’d hear back about the “capabilities” being reduced, but Hamas still runs things.
More than a year ago people were saying “Hamas is defeated”. When I said that the IDF has never controlled a third of Gaza, the most important Hamas strongholds, they were incredulous. It was defeated, mostly, and that’s enough. Another round like in 2009, 2014, 2021.
If you said it’s unacceptable a group murders 1,200 and kidnaps 250 and it remains in power, people might respond with things like “you’re too emotional” or “you don’t understand war” or “this is victory” or “Hamas can’t be fully defeated”…
In a sense the status quo is addicted to Hamas and it’s very hard to end the addiction. Hamas benefits. No one else does.
I didn’t know that the situation was that bad. This is not even close to “victory”. Israel can’t engage for much longer in a war of attrition. So here’s my plan. Israel should negotiate the release of all of the remaining hostages. Give Hamas a small window of opportunity to demonstrate a change of heart, which of course they won’t. Then start reducing their remaining underground empire with bunker-busting bombs, keeping collateral damage to a minimum.
Using bunker busting bombs is not a good idea in the Gaza Strip. A lot of the water in this region is pumped out of the ground just about 10-15 meters (30 to 45 feet) under the surface. The result would be just as bad as when the IDF started pumping seawater into the tunnels – not good. Apart from that, those expensive bunker busters are intended for deeper targets.
We’ve heard this kind of drivel for a long time now. What it boils down to is that Israel is not willing to do what the so-called international community keeps saying that Israel is doing. I have long suggested that instead of pinpointing strikes at cheap Hamas rocket ramps or pounding sand as so often happens, we should simply, indiscriminatingly, drop bombs on the Gaza strip or on Beirut or wherever those terrorists get together and ignore the collateral damage we get blamed for when one of their rockets hits their own people. If we are arrested and hung for stealing horses, we should at least have had some fun with them.
OK, I retract most of that. I don’t believe in simply killing people although targeting
a burial ceremony when they are all there firing their weapons in the air sound like a good idea.
The main point I would like to bring up is that when terrorists kill 1200 people and take 250 more to be sex slaves and hostages, they must be punished! Every country in the world understands this and in their own countries, that is exactly what they try to do, at least as long as punishing them aligns with their interests. In most westerly countries, that is usually what happens, unless, of course, the perpetrator was a Moslem. For some reason, that changes everything. They get tested for drugs, bad parents, the works to find some reason not to disturb the peace of a royal family in the Arabian peninsula or God forbid in Iran. My wish is that we get back our (not so) common sense and deal with these criminals properly.