Turkey’s Erdo?an and Israel’s Netanyahu Have Both Defensive and Offensive Motives to Fight in Syria
Daniel Pipes | MEF | July 22, 2025
How to understand the fighting in Syria between the central government in Damascus and its many foes, including Alawites, Kurds, Druze, and the Israel Defense Forces?
During its first quarter-century of independence, 1946-70, a weak Syrian state served as the battlefield for its many stronger neighbors to project their ambitions, a predicament summed up in the title of a well-known book, The Struggle for Syria. That struggle disappeared through the four decades of rule by Hafez and his son, Bashar al-Assad, only to reemerge during the civil war of 2011-24 and then reach new heights after the overthrow of Bashar in December 2024.
His overthrow nearly eliminated Iran as a factor in Syria, leaving Turkey [Türkiye] and Israel as the primary external combatants. While Syrians are the main protagonists, they effectively serve as proxies for the governments of those two most powerful neighbors.
Both Turkey and Israel face three major risks in Syria.
Start with Ankara and its strongman, Recep Tayyip Erdo?an, who has dominated the country since 2002. The outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011 led to some 3.1 million Syrians registering as refugees in Turkey, along with an estimated one million more living there unregistered. Their presence has led to increased resentment and tension. Accordingly, Erdo?an oversaw the walling off by 2017 of nearly the entire 566-mile border to discourage more refugees. Continued fighting in Syria almost certainly will cause more Syrians to cross into Turkey and more problems for Ankara.
Second, Turkish officialdom worries that the fracturing of Syria into autonomous ethnic polities will serve as a prototype for their country. This fear mainly concerns the Kurds, who already control autonomous regions in Iraq and Syria, but it could spill beyond them to others, such as Alevis and Arabic speakers.
A weak regime in Syria is not useful for anyone. The Syrians need a strong leader who can lead the to prosperity rather than war. Turkey need to be taken down a peg or two but my guess is that Netanyahu is waiting for Erdogan to attack first. If Israel were to attack Turkey, Erdogan would call up NATO to defend him. The other viable option is for Turkey to be ejected from NATO which is long overdue.